Do You Think The Talk Of John Kerry's Political Demise Is Premature?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

What a bunch of nervous Nellies (and I intend for that term to be gender neutral)....

It's damn hard to unseat an incumbent even one with simian qualities.... Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote...


Every poll I see has this a neck and neck race and now the latest CBS poll has John Kerry up a couple of points...


Elections are referendums on the incumbent... If a majority or plurality of folks think he or she is doing a good job they will be rehired and if a majority or plurality of folks think they are doing a crappy job they will be fired...

This election is a referendum on * and if enough folks think he's a doing a good job they will rehire him...G-d help us...

Anyway, with the war going south and the economy fragile this election is a tossup...

So, is the talk of John Kerry's political demise premature?

[FlashHarry]

1. Again, it's the old rope-a-dope

Kerry's been raising money like a madman while Bush has been spending it... to what avail? He's still in a dead heat, with Iraq surely only going to get worse. It's early goings, yet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Agree

No candidate is perfect but I believe Kerry is acceptable to am majority or plurality of voters...


There were other candidates who could never have won in November...

[fearnobush]

7. April will seem like an eternity 6 months from now.

Reality Check: Bill Clinton was some 20 Pt's behind in the polls, in April, 1992

[DAGDA56]

2. Yes, but I think talk of the demise of either candidate...

...is premature. We are just approaching May, fer Chrissakes! Although, I did enjoy the local AM radio wingnut this morning quoting the Village Voice to find ANY anti Kerry material.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Rush Said He MIght Be Bumped From The Ticket...

They said the same thing about Clinton in 92...

[Catch22Dem]

4. I hope the Kerry campaign implodes!

Just like it did before Iowa. Remember that? All the talk was about how Kerry was done. He should drop out. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Yeah, I hope he "implodes" just like that in Nov.

[boxster]

5. Hell yes.

He's neck-and-neck in the polls after a $50 million spending spree by the Republicans. If the incessant whining about medals, Kerry's military record, and other crap that happened 30+ years ago is the best they can come up with, they're in trouble.

Unfortunately, the media is not the only organization where a significant number of people are trumpeting Kerry's impending doom.

[Dogmudgeon]

8. Kerry had demised?

Nobody told me about it!

If you're thinking about the crap about his medals, it's not getting any traction except among the Commentariat. Nobody gives a flying copulation about Kerry protesting the Vietnam War because they know that Bush even deserted a cushy stateside assignment.

Maybe they'll come up with some pictures of him making a four-way beast-with-two-backs with Jane Fonda, Charles Manson, and Claire Booth Luce.

--bkl

[Maat]

9. I've never been worried .... even though I'm a nervous-nelly.

n/t

[Hekate]

10. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Stop it right now.

Dammit, those of us who do not want Bush back for another eternity need to work like there's no tomorrow or there may not be one.

Don't buy into this crap. Try watchdogging the media, and every time (and I mean every time) you hear or read some pundit say that Kerry will never make it for whatever reason, call in or write them and tell them it's crap. He might lose, but it's not over till it's over.

Hekate

[Ruby Romaine]

11. you make KKKarl happy when you dis JFK!

so stop it right now.

to the anti Kerry folks -
you want Bush to appoint 3 supremes?

[salonghorn70]

12. Kerry Is Doing Just Fine

Latest Rasmussen tracking poll has it tied 45-45.I really just don't get why some of you think all is lost.:shrug: Hey, folks. He is doing just fine. One point that I find interesting is that consumer confidence seems to be growing and yet we've got Kerry tied with Bush at 45%. He's doing just fine. He's doing just fine.

[Nicholas_J]

13. Yup, lets see...

All that talk about Kerry's campaign being dead in December, when Dean was the heir presumptive...

Lets see, Kerry is ahead in the 17 battleground states. If he hangs onto all of those states, he will win in the electoral college with no problem. Right now out of all state in which polls have been done Kerry has eight states that he is almost certain to win and has large double digit leads over Bush for 155 electoral votes. Another two states are strongly leaning towards Kerry (Maryland and Illinois) for an additional 31 electoral votes giving Kerry 186 electoral votes right now.

Bush, on the other hand, has 13 states that he is almost certain to win, but the total EV for these adds up to 122 electoral votes, There are another 4 states leaning towards Bush, which give him an additional 40 electoral votes, for a total of 162 Electoral votes.

A number of states that Bush won handily in 2000 are now in too close to call status, and several of these states are states that Bush own handily in 2000, like Arkansas, which Bush won by 6 points in 2000, but where Kerry is 2 points behind right now. Earier polls had Bush well ahead in Arkansas, but right now Kerry has pulled up 2 points behind him ( a statistical dead heat). This may be the clark factor and Clark wil be a much stronger factor once Kerry starts campaigning hard for these states. Right now Kerry's short list has Edwards, Gephardt, and Tom Vilsack. Edwards may be the choice of many Democrats, but it looks more and more like the strategic choce may be Gephardt, who will be able to deliver more states in the rust belt for Kerry than Edwards will be able to deliver in the south. Notice that Kerry's other choice is a midwesterner, a very popular midwestern Democrat. Kerry's strategy appears to be goiing after the midwest, nad perhaps getting one or two southern states likel Florida and Arkansas. Graham and Lieberman can assit in delivering Florida. Kerry is going after Ohio, and perhaps even Missouri, which will likely come if Gephardt is the running mate.

I think it is amusing that people think that Kerry's campaign is in the toilet, when aside from national polls, Kerry has a significant lead on Bush in the states, and in particular, in strongly holding onto states with the largest number of electoral votes. I am absolutely certain that Kerry's current strategy is to secure all of the largest states that he can, to do as much as possible to secure an electoral college win, and then worrying about the popular vote later in the nomination. While all of the things being revealed about Bush 9/11, Iraq, and other things do not seem to be doing him great harm yet, neither has the 98 million dollars that the Bush campaign has spent on "hit" advertising against Kerry had any significant effect on Kerry's support. But when looks at the local level, Kerry is well ahead of Bush. And since we vote locally, not at the national level, Kerry is positioning himself extremely well for November.

So far, it looks like Kerry is winning in the most important place to win. At the state level and at the electoral college level.

[Redneck Socialist]

20. How dare you

inject sensible analysis into this whine fest! :)

[eumesmo]

27. I agree with the overall point

Of course it's too early to know what's going to happen. The race is obviously close.

Regarding AR, that's unlikely. The poll cited didn't include Nader, and was a machine poll. Kerry's not likely going to make a play for AR. He'll have enough on his hands elsewhere to keep busy.

His strategy is pretty clear. Hold the states Gore took and take Ohio. States more likely to go his way that went GOP last time than AR would be NH, FL, and WV.

[LabMonkey]

14. Depends on Kerry

If he keeps up they way he has hes done.
He is losing the swing voters. But I expect they will try something new soon. He has 6 months to find the formula that works. If I say what I think he needs to do, people get angry at me so Ill leave it at that.

[LonghornJack]

15. Let's Stay Positive

I can see where some folks might disagree with Kerry's strategy and his chances to win, but, like some other posters have already said, Kerry is doing pretty well against a well-financed (but totally incompetent) incumbent. I can't wait until the campaign gets into full swing, and we get a V.P. designated. Until then, we need to stay positive. Criticize Kerry if you must; but, in the end, we all need to support him and the Democratic team.

The alternative is just too awful. I can't take another four years of a clueless, incompetent, right-wing idealogue. I can't bear the thought of this guy appointing the next two or three Supreme Court justices.

Let's hang in there!

[Gothmog]

16. Wishful thinking by GOP

This is a case of wishful thinking by the GOP. They are hoping that if they say that Kerry is imploding enough times, someone may believe it.

[Toucano]

17. 100% Premature

He's just getting started.

[jsanteramo]

18. Let's not get worried-Kerry is the man for the job, and he can prove it

I think it would be silly to worry so early in the election process! John Kerry is clearly capable of winning the WH, and he will do a wonderful job campaigning. I think it would be a bad idea to get worried, because then it makes us look bad.

[newyawker99]

26. Hi jsanteramo!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[salonghorn70]

19. Welcome, Longhorn Jack

Good to see another Longhorn on here :hi:

HOOK'EM

[mitchum]

21. Yes, but what can you expect from premature ejaculators?

Maybe they should quit jerking off so much...

Kerry 2004

[Dr Fate]

22. Kerry gets bolder & bolder- but not a loose cannon...

Let's review:

He is highly educated (for real- not just "Gentlemen's Cs" like Bush"

He was a combat officer- so he knows a little about strategy, confrontation...

He was a Prosecutor- see above- plus add analysis prowess...

Then a successful elected official...

So long as he does not blow the VP pic, we are looking good- but never too over confident either...

[shivaji]

23. The news about Kerry's demise is highly exaggerated

LOL

[gate of the sun]

24. Yes I think it is

but it's obviously a split crowd on the ole democraticunderground isin't it? Alot of us are pretty disappointed in our only hope to save the country. well there you have it.

[RoveHater]

25. I can't vote but here is a riechwing poll!!!!

Another riech-wing nut and his "vote Bushit poll"

Wouldn't it be funny to see nothing but Kerry votes?


It's at http://jeffblanco.blogdrive.com


I know who I am voting for!!!!!!!

[mzmolly]

28. Yes it is. Kerry is polling ahead of Bush in the swing states.

:hi:

[Forkboy]

29. I still have money riding on him

so yes :)