Gallup Daily: Clinton Moves Into Lead Over Obama (49% vs 42%)

[Iceburg]

PRINCETON, NJ -- New Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Hillary Clinton with a 49% to 42% lead over Barack Obama in national Democratic voters' presidential nomination preference.
...
This is the first time Clinton has held a statistically significant lead in over a month.
...
Obama's campaign has been plagued by controversial remarks made by his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama delivered a major speech on race Tuesday to try to move beyond the controversy. The initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton's gaining momentum, as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night's polling as compared to Monday night's polling.

The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from March 16-18, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,209 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105205/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Moves-Into-Lead-Over-Obama.aspx

[New Earth]

1. I do not believe it for a minute

here we go...

[bdamomma]

2. me either, when was this poll taken???

take whatever the media says with many grains of salt.

[Qutzupalotl]

5. Before and during the speech.

:)

[Teaser]

19. only one day's sample

three days are rolled into a sample.

[jackson_dem]

7. Read the OP. Obamites loved Gallup when Obama was riding high in it

Maybe every polling firm is wrong. Obama has been going down in 90% of polls since the week before Ohio and Texas. You can't just "hope" that away.

[SammyWinstonJack]

25. LOL! True.

[enid602]

31. Hmmmm.

Hmmmm, let's see. Pelosi good. Edwards bad. Gallup bad. It's hard to keep up with it all.

[Iceburg]

3. Suspension of belief is not a winning strategy /nt

[buff2]

6. Oh brother.......

if that was NOBAMA in the lead you would believe it. :rofl:

[jackson_dem]

9. They did just last week

:rofl:

[buff2]

13. LOL

:toast:

[jackson_dem]

4. He was up 50-44 a week ago. The more folks get to know him the more he drops

He is showing no ability to be able to withstand a punch.

[Qutzupalotl]

8. Bullshit.

Wait till the polls come out AFTER his speech yesterday.

[jackson_dem]

14. Romney enjoyed a temporary bounce of 2.6 nationally, 1 in Iowa, 0 in NH for his hyped speech

Obama said racism is bad. That isn't going to move the needle significantly and any gain he makes will be temporary.

[Qutzupalotl]

15. Obama's speech has already converted several Hillary supporters here.

Your spin is getting ridiculous.

[jackson_dem]

27. DU isn't the real world. Wright is a hero here. In the real world he has an 8% favorable rating

What is your prediction? Obama gains 15 points for saying racism is bad, like every presidential candidate except for George Wallace has done since at least J1960?

[Iceburg]

16. This WAS a post-speech poll /nt

[Teaser]

18. No, only 1 day post speech actually.

.

[jackson_dem]

28. If he gained 80 points post-speech as Obamites on Du think it would have moved the Gallup numbers

[buff2]

10. I'm not worried in the least

He will never live in the White House. His dreams have turned into nightmares since he and his mentor preacher have been exposed.

[RunningFromCongress]

11. I wouldn't be worried (on either side) unless one cadidate slips below 40 for 7 or more days

[goldcanyonaz]

12. March 16-18 sampling. Up, up and away, my beautiful balloon!

[Mags]

17. go Hillary!

[displacedtexan]

20. "A statistically significant lead"

Cool!

[truebrit71]

21. Too bad she has a statistical significant deficit in votes, states won and delegates....

...you know....SHIT THAT MATTERS....

[jackson_dem]

30. The latest PA poll has her leading by 26

[truebrit71]

40. PA has had their election? Really? So that "lead" means precisely DICK right now...

...but you knew that...right?

:eyes:

Behind in votes
Behind in states
Behind in delegates

But she wants Obama to be VP?

Have you lost your mind?

[hell-bent]

22. Stick a fork in him,

he is done! I would expect he will announce that he is dropping out if his poll numbers continue to decline. Hillary by a 26 point spread in Pennsylvania! There goes his popular vote lead. With that goes the SDs......

[olkaz]

29. You realize that a poll doesn't give delegates, right?

Just checking. I still have a better shot at shooting the winning shot in this year's NCAA tournament than Hillary does at winning this thing without a superdelegate coup.

[jobycom]

35. It does. It gave Obama some. Not bashing Obama...

But when the polls started showing that he was leading, and polls started asking who superdelegates should vote for, several switched to Obama when the polls showed that's what voters wanted. If Obama seriously tanks in the polls, supers may switch back to her.

Not saying he will, or that this Gallup poll shows anything. It's a daily tracking poll, and thus has a lot of varience. Last week Obama led 50 to 44. Before that Clinton led. It isn't showing a continuous trend. But if it, or other polls, showed a drastic longterm drop in approval for Obama, it could cost him delegates, even the nomination.

Again, not predicting it will happen, and certainly not saying it is happening. But the polls certainly are important in this primary race. Neither candidate can win without the unpledged supers, and the supers are following the polls.

[olkaz]

37. They may be, but they're following the pledged delegate count closer.

They won't upset the apple cart just for a poll.

Considering how wildly variable the polls have been over the past year, I can't think of a worse way for a super to use his/her vote.

[jobycom]

41. It would have to be an undeniable change in preference.

Not a dip in polling numbers. But insiders--meaning superdelegates, too--don't consider the pledged delegate total to be purely popular vote. Obama won a lot of extra delegates by playing the caucuses well. Not saying there's anything wrong with that, but caucuses don't reflect the voters the way a primary does, as Texas proves. Clinton won the election, but lost the caucuses.

There are plenty of justifications for supers to vote Clinton even if she's behind in the pledged delegates. It's going to be hard for them to just ignore the delegate count, of course, and if Obama's lead stays this overwhelming, they shouldn't. But if Obama tanks--if something happens that makes it look like the Democrats have turned on him, or prefer Clinton--the supers can choose Clinton.

Of course, the reverse is true. If Clinton tanks, more can switch.

[jackson_dem]

32. Yup and morally FL must now be counted in the popular vote

She won FL by 300k.

[rodeodance]

23. REC

[SammyWinstonJack]

24. ...

:evilgrin:

[desi]

26. Obama Tanking...

and Hillary Rising...thank you.

K&R!

[SeaLyons]

33. Go Hillary!!

K&R

[emilyg]

38. You bet!! k/r

[jobycom]

34. That poll is tied to a yo-yo. They've been going back and forth for weeks.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

[Milo_Bloom]

36. And this solves Clinton's math problem how exactly?

[pointsoflight]

39. And it's 47-42 Obama in Rasmussen's poll. The polls are really unstable right now.

Nothing meaningful here until things shake out from the Wright controversy, Obama's speech, etc. The polls in a week will tell us a lot more about where things stand. There are already indicators in some polls that Obama has weathered the Wright storm. But we'll see.

[Beacool]

42. Thank you, great news!!!!! n/t