It's Time to Face Reality

[olkaz]

This thing is going to the convention.

I know it, I'm as upset as you are. We're really going to be tearing each others' eyes out until then. All the call for us to start attacking McCain have fallen on deaf ears. The circular firing squad has assembled, and we're locked and loaded.

So what do we do now? Nobody wants to back down. And realistically (no matter what the polls say), our candidate will defeat John McCain, given she/he has our united support. I'm sick of all this talk about how if you don't get the candidate you want, you'll take your ball and go home. That's about the most pathetic crap I've every heard. In fact, if you're so low as to throw this election to a senile old man with the thought processes of Smeagol, well, you've got a lot of growing up to do.

The problem is that too many people take this thing too personally. People get emotionally involved with their candidate. Candidate A does well, hooray, I'm loving life! Candidate A isn't looking too good in region B, oh noes. Why do we have so many emotionally retarded supporters? There's a difference between aggressive marketing of a candidate and crying because you think people are being unfair. Now this is a story, all about how my life got flipped - turned upside down, and i'd like to take a minute, just sit right there, I'll tell you howI became the prince of a town called Bel-Air. In West Philadelphia, born an' raised,on the playground is where i spent mosta my days, chillin out, maxin', relaxin' all cool, an' all shootin some B-ball outside of the school,when a couple o' guys who were up to no good, started makin' trouble in my neighborhood, I got in one little fight and my mom got scared, She said 'You're movin with your auntie and uncle in Bel-Air!

I whistled for a cab and when i came near, the license plate said 'Fresh', and had dice in the mirror, if anything i could say that this cab was rare, but I thought 'Nah, forget it - Yo, home to Bel-Air! I pulled up to the house at bout seven or eight, I yelled to the cabbie 'Yo home, smell ya later! I looked at my kingdom, I was finally there! To sit on my throne as the prince of Bel-Air!

[Adams Wulff]

Wow. n/t

[olkaz]

44. I know, man. I know.

It's sad to think it's going to the convention.

I'm still trying to figure out what the party is going to do, honestly.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. There is only one way to have anything remotely close to a united party, and that is nominating the

pledged delegate winner.

[olkaz]

2. I don't know, man

I know what you're saying (and I probably agree), but the other side isn't going to buy that.

How do we get a nominee now, and start healing without everybody getting pissed off?

[Catherina]

32. Either way, one group is going to be extremely angry

It did not need to come to this.

[olkaz]

36. If it doesn't need to come to this, then what do we do?

Looking for a solution to our 9000 problems.

[Craftsman]

46. What if he or she has no chance of winning

BHO can't win, he is to damaged by this.

[lapfog_1]

3. I'll vote for any Democratic Nominee

unfortunately, Hillary is no longer a Democrat. She lost that designation the moment she endorsed McCain over Obama.

[olkaz]

4. oh come on

She's better than McCain!

You have to support her over him. We don't want to be in Iraq 100 years!!!

[Joe the Revelator]

6. Then she shouldn't have endorsed McCain

luckily, she's has zero chance of winning the nomination at this point.

[olkaz]

11. But seriously...

Even if she did that, she won't be as bad as him. I mean seriously, you know better than that!

Why are you letting yourself fall in this trap?

[Joe the Revelator]

18. I don't reward democrats who act and publically support republicans

what is so hard to understand about that??

[olkaz]

24. But when the general comes....

You couldn't possibly vote against the party or not vote?

I mean, jesus. McCain could do a TON of damage.

[musicblind]

39. It's called cutting off your nose to spite your face

apparently some DU'ers are no better than 1st graders :eyes:

I, personally, will GLADLY support whoever the nominee is, even though I am supporting Hillary in the primaries. I will not have my feelings hurt by an Obama win unless Obama supporters on DU try to gloat and throw it in my face after the nomination is decided. I fear that will happen.

[olkaz]

40. That's going to happen either way.

And it's haaaaard to take it. God, watching John Edwards go down was really hard for me. I still think he would have been the best one.

I guess we just have to have confidence that our party is filled with grownups?

[musicblind]

42. Edwards would have been great

I donated to him and supported him before he dropped out. I too was disappointed. I know my friend Aaron and my mother were disappointed. I am hoping he will endorse one of the candidates before NC so he can give campaign speeches for them in the state. I have never gotten to go and see him live in person.

[olkaz]

43. I never have had a chance to see Edwards either.

But I did get to see Obama give his campaign announcement speech. He made it two blocks from my apartment, so I couldn't really not go.

Hillary's never really been anywhere close, and Bill skipped out on the opening of the presidential library in town (which really was bizarre, considering Dubya made the trip), so I haven't seen either of them.

Either way, I think Edwards was the best of the progressive candidates, and I fear progressives will be the ones left out this time. Again.

God centrism and moderates suck.

[Window]

5. K/R.

Lord, this is some mess.

[tekisui]

7. How does the fresh prince fit in with all this?

:shrug:

[sniffa]

8. Maybe because, like Will Smith, Obama is non-threatening to white people?

:shrug:

[tekisui]

9. Maybe Obama should pick up the theme song for his campaign?

:shrug:

[sniffa]

12. If he wants to nail down the youth vote, once and for all

It should be, Parents Just Don't Understand.

[mythyc]

34. that's a good one

:rofl:

[olkaz]

10. Shh..

Just K/R, and let's observe.

[tekisui]

14. Gotcha. TO THE CONVENTION!!!

:toast:

Making your way in the world today takes everything you got....

[sudopod]

13. This is relevent to my interest, good sir. nt

[olkaz]

16. As it should be! As I've said over 9000 times....

It's time to bring the party together.

And in that spirit of togetherness, it wouldn't hurt to recommend this thread.

[ColbertWatcher]

15. Did you just Belair your own post?

What? No rickroll?

[olkaz]

17. Also, here's another thing to consider... superdelegates!!!

Will everybody flip out if the supers go against whoever has the pledged delegate lead?

We've got to get this thing figured out, people.

[Johnny__Motown]

19. I still hope that SD will come out "en mass" in June for the one with the most pledged delegates

That would make Sen. Obama the presumptive nominee. Yes it won't be official till the convention and Hillary will still be out there making background noise. I can only hope that if enough SD voice their support that Obama has the numbers to win that the contest will effectively end.

[olkaz]

37. the weird thing is that

They might not do that.

Man, what do think Democrats will do if the supers go for Hillary even if she doesn't take the popular vote or pledged delegate lead?

[Bonobo]

20. Give it to Hillary at the convention. The Dems will NEVER recover from it.

[olkaz]

22. thats just not true

We'd recover from it. We're going to come together. It's just a matter of time.

[Catherina]

33. No. You lose the Black vote permanently if the party does that.

This has become very serious. I'm not basing that on what I read at DU but from real life conversations with a wide range of people.

[olkaz]

35. Permanently?

You think black voters will stop voting completely, or convert to Republicans?

I can see some being disillusioned, but I think they could be brought around.

But nothing is permanent, come on.

[Swamp Rat]

21. SCOTUS.

Need I say more?

[olkaz]

23. I dont know what you mean.

Supreme court?

[Swamp Rat]

30. Yes

[kwassa]

25. Nice post, Carlton.

[olkaz]

26. Who's carlton?

[kwassa]

28. Don't even try. Do you think we can't see your manipulative hand ....

trying to diss teh Willster?

What would Hilary say? Not Hillary, Hilary! The real candidate.

[FlyingSquirrel]

27. I refuse to face that reality yet.

On April 22, Clinton could win PA 55-42, but then on May 6 Obama could win Indiana 56-41 and NC 52-45. That would be a NET GAIN OF 4 DELEGATES for Clinton, and put them each at the following totals:

Obama 1765, Clinton 1651

including current delegate and superdelegate totals from DemConWatch.

By that time the superdelegate gap may have closed even further. However if it had not, at that point it would be clear that in order to get 2,024 delegates,

Clinton would need 55% of the remaining pledged delegates not yet assigned,
PLUS 62.5% of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates (212 of them), in order to reach 2,024.

Since attaining the first part of the equation would still leave her behind in PD's, 1896-1812, it's reasonable to assume that there would be little chance of her winning over the remaining uncommitted superdelegates by a margin of 62.5% to 37.5%; so I'm hoping that after May 6, enough pressure can be brought to bear to bring this race to a close.


(P.S. Yes I noticed the Fresh Prince song, in case you were trying to see how many people only read the first paragraph or title of the thread.)

;-)

[olkaz]

38. question

"Since attaining the first part of the equation would still leave her behind in PD's, 1896-1812, it's reasonable to assume that there would be little chance of her winning over the remaining uncommitted superdelegates by a margin of 62.5% to 37.5%; so I'm hoping that after May 6, enough pressure can be brought to bear to bring this race to a close."

How sure can you be that the supers will go for this? I think the same way you do on this, but I hear a lot of people saying that they really all could go to Clinton in the end. I know that would be overturning the apple cart in a big way, but even if the trend started, wouldnt that keep it close enough to go to the convention?

I just **really** don't want that to happen.

[FlyingSquirrel]

47. I think at this point Clinton will stay in till MI and FL are resolved.

And not before PA. Possibly not even before June 3 even if MI and FL are resolved ahead of that time, unless the resolution gives her absolutely no additional delegates which I can't see happening. If the resolution is not favorable enough to her, and it comes a long enough time before the convention, I think the pressure to bow out will be too great even for her to withstand.

[RiverStone]

29. No, the SD's do not want it to go to the convention!

Off the record, many have said there is no way they will let that happen.

Expect lots of movement after the last primary.

[Craftsman]

48. Neither side will quit, so it will go to the convention

[better tomorrow]

31. and if it does, we might lose the HOPE of a whole new generation of voters....

[olkaz]

41. But would they have stuck around anyway?

It's yet to be seen. What's to become of all these young people who are now involved?

[grantcart]

45. Under the most favorable circumstances for Clinton, Obama will have 50%

of the elected delegates by the Oregon primary. A number of superdelegates including Speaker Pelosi have indicated that they will support the candidate who has the most elected delegates. At that point Obama will most likely reach 2024 before the convention.

[olkaz]

49. There's a chance that the results of primaries change the super's votes though

I know, and agree that Obama has probably got this thing wrapped up, but, just for the sake of argument, what if the supers DO flip this thing?

And what if they stay uncommitted? What if they really wait that long?