I heard something on MSNBC the other night about down the ticket realities....

[WCGreen]

It was on David Gregory's show...

The comment went something like this...

Obama, even if he loses, would do more to bring people to the poll to vote for democrats down the ticket...

The African-American vote has been the most loyal to the party and they would, if Obama was the nominee, come out in larger amounts than they normally do...

It may drive the residual racists away from the top of the ticket, but those people, out of economic concerns, would vote for democrats down the ticket and thus ensure a sweep for the House and the Senate...

Here's what I think...

I think what we have here is what is commonly referred to as a realigning election...

That is when thing spin off so far from where conventional wisdom dictates that sweeping changes in traditional alliances are made that overwhelmingly favor one party over the other...

Usually, the presidential candidate sets the tone that is delivered via some fundamental threat to the country...

This year, more than any I can remember, it is about the economy...

In 1992, it was the economy but Clinton won not because of his views on economic issues but on Perot's views of economic issues...

Perot drew enough votes from Bush to make Clinton a winner...

That is why the GOP went after him so viciously from day one...

Remember travel-gate, the gays in the military hubbub and, the most telling item of all, the defeat of the democratic majority in the 1994 mid term elections...

Now I liked Bill as a president, he seemed to be the right guy for the time...

But don't kid yourself, if Perot wasn't there in 1992, well, you do the math...

Why is this year different from 1992...

Well, for one thing the people on Wall Street know that Bush and the republicans fucked things up...

The people who own homes know that Bush and the republicans fucked things up...

The people who are watching their paychecks get eaten up by a weak dollar know that Bush and the republicans fucked things up...

The people who feel anxious about the future know that Bush and the republicans fucked things up...

The only problem the democrats really have this year is not the infighting and the continued bickering between the Clinton camp and the Obama supporters...

The only problem democrats really have is that too many people don't view John McCain as a republican...

The media has labeled him as a maverick even though we know the difference...

That tag will stay with him no matter what happens in the next few weeks...

But the sooner we settle on a candidate and thus get one person to continually remind the voters that yes, John McCain is really a republican, the better off we will be at the top of the ticket...

The Dem's are going to be close to a veto proof majority in both the House and the Senate...

Unless they somehow manage to fuck it up...

But as far as the top of the ticket goes...

Well, whomever it shall be must do everything they can to make sure the people know that John McCain is a 100%, dyed in the wool, Laissez-faire Republican who only has the economic interests of the richest and most powerful people in this country...

And they must present a clear economic agenda...

Because this time around, Perot is not going to be there to fall back on...

[DontTreadOnMe]

1. Just give us a few more months...

re: "Unless they somehow manage to fuck it up..."

are you kidding.. we having even started yet.
Wait until we (Democrats) fully implode.

[blm]

2. It's the downticket races driving the Super delegates to Obama, too.

Some of those on the tickets who fear for their own races if HRC is at the top ARE superdelegates, too.

[earthlover]

3. Hillary at best will squeak by with no coat-tails. Obama can do better

[WCGreen]

6. None what so ever...

Just like her husband...

[ColbertWatcher]

4. GOP is the problem

Well, whomever it shall be must do everything they can to make sure the people know that John McCain is a 100%, dyed in the wool, Laissez-faire Republican who only has the economic interests of the richest and most powerful people in this country...

We need to tie all republicans to each other.

So far, they have gotten away with not just the Bush administration and all their lawbreaking and failures, but also republican congressional support for the Bush administration's lawbreaking and failures.

Every Republican has to be held accountable for Bush's Katrina, Bush's Iraq and Bush's failing economy.

From now on, it has to be the GOP's Katrina, the GOP's Iraq and the GOP's failing economy.

While liberals are voting to stop (or slow) the GOP agenda, the GOP stick together in lockstep voting as one to further their doctrine to reverse the successes of the 20th century.

[WCGreen]

5. Exactly...

[papau]

7. the comment is wrong - polls show Perot drew equally from both - down ticket

races have little to do with top of national ticket

[depakid]

8. Polls discount the dynamic of the 3 person race

which would have been COMPLETELY DIFFERENT had the GOP had both barrels of the machine pointed at Clinton- and had Clinton not had Perot tag teaming Bush.

In addition, the 1996 race is instructive. Clinton DID hurt many candidates and issues down ticket. There's a good article on that point, which mirrors my observations and experiences on the ground at the time.

Hillary and the Politics of Disappointment

We forget that this happened with her husband Bill, because compared to Bush, he’s looking awfully good. Much of Hillary’s support may be nostalgia for when America’s president seemed to engage reality instead of disdaining it. But remember that over the course of Clinton’s presidency, the Democrats lost 6 Senate seats, 46 Congressional seats, and 9 governorships. This political bleeding began when Monica Lewinsky was still an Oregon college senior. Given Hillary’s protracted support of the Iraq war, her embrace of neoconservative rhetoric on Iran, and her coziness with powerful corporate interests, she could create a similar backlash once in office, dividing and depressing the Democratic base and reversing the party’s newfound momentum.

o place saw a more dramatic political shift than my home state of Washington. In November 1992, Democratic activists volunteered by the thousands, hoping to end the Reagan-Bush era. On Election Day, I joined five other volunteers to help get out the vote in a swing district 20 miles south of Seattle. Volunteers had a similar presence in every major Democratic or competitive district in the state. The effort helped Clinton to carry the state and Democrats to capture eight out of nine House seats.

But by 1994 grass-roots Democratic campaigners mostly stayed home, disgruntled. In Washington State, there were barely enough people to distribute literature and make phone calls in Seattle’s most liberal neighborhoods, let alone in swing suburban districts. Republicans won seven of our nine congressional races, and reelected a Senator known for baiting environmentalists.

The same was true nationwide

http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/11/27/5460/

[WCGreen]

9. Out of all the years I was involved with politics on the party level..

1994 was the worst...