McCain rises and Obama plunges in series of 9 catastrophic polls for Dems

[Karmadillo]

http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/03/mccain-rises-and-obama-plunges-in.html

Rarely have I seen this consistent a turnaround in general election polls: In 9 general election polls released today, McCain is on the rise and Obama declines due to his (1) continued weakness among registered Democrats and (2) the departure of many cross-over Republicans and independents who had come to support his candidacy. Also, Clinton's position generally remains stable, suggesting that it is Obama who is weakening more than McCain who is improving.

Obama's plunge looks particularly vertiginous because of how high he was riding in the last two weeks of February, looking competitive in every poll and beating McCain in many reddish states; so some of the trendlines have to be taken with a grain of salt, since they follow an Obama progression. Also, it looked likely that Obama would not keep up his strong levels of support among registered Republicans and independents once the general election campaign began, the GOP nominee was chosen and the two sides became polarized. But the consistency of the numbers suggests that March belongs to McCain.

All the polls I am about to cite follow PPP's Florida release yesterday that showed McCain up 11% in Florida against Obama. Today, two polls from Ohio show the Arizona Senator strengthened in the red state that until recently looked the most promising for Democrats:

SUSA shows Clinton leading McCain 50% to 44%, but McCain leads Obama 50% to 43%. Compared to the previous SUSA poll from late February, that's a 4% Clinton drop and a 17% Obama plunge.

In a pattern that we will find in most of these polls, Obama is weak among registered Democrats (he gets 66% to Clinton's 80%) and Clinton is weak among blacks (64%). But the shift in numbers is due to independents deserting Obama (down from 60% to 45%) and Republicans moving home (the margin is 12% better for McCain).

PPP's poll also brings good news for McCain, who trails Clinton only 45% to 44% but is ahead of Obama 49% to 41%.

Here again, Clinton is very weak among blacks (47%) and Obama among registered Democrats (60%).

more...

[GarbagemanLB]

1. In other news, we still have 5 whole weeks until PA...

[annie1]

2. damn. this timetable is a nightmare.

[billbuckhead]

4. And Hillary is going roll in Pennsylvania like a fuel injected HEMI

[RBInMaine]

14. She'll probably win there, but like in OH she has the MACHINE. It's EXPECTED. Where's the news??

[rodeodance]

23. BO has his own machine. admit it and stop with machine crap on HRC all the time. silly of you

[GarbagemanLB]

33. A lot of establishment Dems owe favors to the Clintons or are simply loyal to them. Admit it.

[musicblind]

40. On the front page of every newspaper in America the night after she wins/loses in PA??? of course

[CatnHat]

35. I'm in PA

and Hillary Clinton is in double digits over Obama. Over 260,000 at the parade on Saturday to see Hillary Clinton; she is drawing huge crowds here everywhere she goes. She's got the endorsements of the mayor in Philly, mayor in Pittsburgh, mayor in Erie, mayor in Harrisburg; all the major cities; not to mention Gov. Rendell, and John Murtha. PA loves Hillary Clinton, kinda like their "favorite daughter".

[still_one]

41. The state that gave us santorum, finally replaced him with casey

who was the wonderful jerk responsibile for casey verses planned parenthood

The country will continue to get everything it deserves

[CatnHat]

50. Do you feel the same

way about New York, California, Texas, Ohio, (guess Mass. is ok, the state went for Hillary--but somehow Teddy got left out of the loop of the voting public)!!

How many republican's represent your state? Now Obama supporters are hating "states"??? Give me a break.

By the way, Clinton is closing the gap in North Carolina, she is behind only 1%. By May, she'll have North Carolina in the bag as well.

[still_one]

52. Actually, believe it or not I wasn't even thinking about Hillary or whoever is the nominee

but how Pa used to be as blue as they come, and how sad that they have become so red

That has nothing to do in my mind with Hillary ahead in the polls in Pa, it is more an extremely sad state of affairs of the whole country

The country has taken such a hard right turn, I have my doubts that Clinton or Obama can win against mccain, especially since I don't see the media going after mccain like they will us

The telecomummunications act of the 90s was much more significant than anyone would have dreamed

[roguevalley]

59. McCain has gotten a free ride so far. Mr. Million Years War is

not raising money and people like we are. He won't win. Polls go up and down. Its a long time until the end. Relax.

[featherman]

3. It is what it is. I am firm in my belief that McCain is a terrible GE

candidate and will be outed again and again on his lies and general idiocy until some of the MSM that has created his artificial status begin peeling away.

[billbuckhead]

7. But Hillary's opponent is the only Democrat McCain can beat

[FARAFIELD]

5. obama STILL LEADS

Hillary nationally, catastrophe that.

[billbuckhead]

8. Depends on which poll, check out Gallup!

<http://www.gallup.com/poll/105205/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Moves-Into-Lead-Over-Obama.aspx>

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

12. read the poll, its a 4 day average

And do you know what time the poll was taken yesterday?

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

13. dupe

[Andromeda]

32. Gallup...

49 to 42% lead! Pretty good considering how unstable polls seem to be. She appears to be the most stable taking in all the polls the past couple of months.

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

6. thats not surprising at all

after Clinton's "kitchen sink" and now a week straight of racist attacks from CNN/FOX/ Right wing media, he was due to go down.


But Obama is a fighter. He's been down before, and he'll get up again. He's not going to take the bullshit.

[FARAFIELD]

9. Oh my

I guess he should quite, I think he ought to go campaign in other states and shaft her, just fyi, she cant catch him and wont, more people like him, etc, and more people overall like him and another tidbit, its not just dems that vote in a general election, damn hillarybots are idiots. Mccain cant even collect his thoughts, with Obama standing next to him he will look like a doddering old man which he is its a blow out. enjoy the next few weeks and maybe a win in pennsylvania it will likely be the last good night she has EVER>

[rodeodance]

24. Too bad BO has so much garbage in his sink.

[still_one]

42. When was the last time you looked in the Clinton's closet? /nt

[barb162]

43. And the bathtub, the attic, the living room, the garage....

[barb162]

46. Obama doesn't have a choice if the media keeps playingthese tapes

It's not up to him. If viewers have an interest in it and watch it, he can't stop anything. This issue has exploded and Obama is wounded.

[totodeinhere]

10. It depends on what polls you want to believe.

The latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll has Obama leading Clinton by five points today. Yesterday he lead Clinton by only one point.
Rasmussen also shows McCain and Obama tied in Colorado, while McCain leads Clinton by 14 points. In New Hampshire Obama leads McCain by three points while Clinton trails by six points. So it's not all gloom and doom for Obama if you read all of the polls rather than cherry picking polls that show Clinton doing better.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[still_one]

45. "It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is.

I have the upmost faith in Americans that they will make the wrong decision, cause more sufferring for themselves and the world, and finally after enough people have been killed or wounded, retreat with "honor"

[barb162]

48. I think another week or so will tell the story.

[MadMaddie]

11. I don't believe the polls...never have...

[pointsoflight]

15. Obama is up on Hillary in three new national polls. Did you forget those?

Just an accidental slight?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. This remark is pretty typical of the problem around here

1) The OP is posting a blog entry by someone else, so accusing the OP of willfully omitting something is nuts

2) The OP concerns head-to-head match-ups between Obama and McCain, so complaining about the omission of Obama vs. Hillary polls is nuts

[DemGa]

16. "A 17% Obama plunge" -- Obama is a disaster for the Dems

He can't win the GE and he's split the Dems. This could only be compared to the damage Ted Kennedy caused in 1980.

[still_one]

47. and Hillary's a uniter. What the hell are you smoking?

If you believe the reliving of the Clinton affairs, both sexual and otherwise are not going to be a disaster, I have some swamp land to sell you in Arizonia

[kwenu]

18. For the good of the party Hillary needs to leave.

But we all know she probably doesn't care enough to put the party first.

[rodeodance]

20. yes, we know BO will not leave for the good of the Party

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rodeodance]

22. "Christ, you're an innumerate moron":--name-calling is very IMMATURE

[Zhade]

25. You should still learn to count. Obama's still winning.

NT!

[Andromeda]

44. It ain't over till it's over...

cupcake!

[mythyc]

55. depends on how they finally count it, but yes, so far

still, what tangible evidence has there been that HRC would leave for the good of the party anymore than he would.

fair fight until it's over imo.

[Andromeda]

36. You are an abominable halfwit!

She knows how to count, asshole! So shove it where the sun don't shine.

Hillary has more class in her little finger than Obamanightmare has in his whole body. So don't count her out yet!

[CatnHat]

38. If Obama was the great

uniter he pretends to be, he should step aside. Just imagine Obama actually "doing" something good, rather than just giving speeches.

[kwenu]

58. He shouldn't because he's permanently in the lead. I would say the same if it were Hillary.

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

19. I'd be more interested in the polls in a couple of days.

After the Obama speech, after the release of Clinton's White House records. These are pretty much meaningless at this point. And McCain hasn't gone up against either of our candidates yet.

[RamboLiberal]

26. And we have this poll

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hold slim leads over John McCain in a general-election match-up, according to a new CBS News poll. But McCain is doing better among independents than he was last month, and the presumptive Republican nominee has narrowed the gap between himself and Obama.

If the election were held today and Obama and McCain were the candidates, 48 percent of those surveyed say they would support Obama while 43 percent say they would support McCain. In February, Obama led McCain 50 percent to 38 percent.

If Clinton and McCain were the candidates, the New York senator receives 46 percent support to McCain's 44 percent.

In a turnaround from last month, McCain now leads both Obama and Clinton among independent voters. Obama led McCain by 10 points among this group last month, but he now trails by 8 points. Clinton trails McCain by 11 points among independents.

Obama has the highest favorable rating of the three candidates - 44 percent - followed by Clinton at 39 percent and McCain at 38 percent. Clinton, meanwhile, has the highest unfavorable rating at 41 percent, followed by McCain at 31 percent and Obama at 28 percent.

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,067 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 15-18, 2008. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of African Americans was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 122 interviews among this group and 106 African American registered voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the racial composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census. The margin of error for African Americans (overall and registered voters) is plus or minus nine percentage points.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/19/opinion/polls/main3951729.shtml

I personally think Obama is going to have a bit of a rebound. I've seen a poll where 20% of Democratic voters say they will not vote for Clinton if the SD's throw the nomination to her. Wright may well hurt Obama in the GE. But IMHO Clinton may have insured that neither of them will win as well with her pushing McCain as more qualified. She's also managed IMHO to make the argument that McCain is also more experienced than her. And that may become more apparent if these First Lady papers released today get more MSM attention. I don't know if MSM is starting to weary of the Wright story and will begin the analysis of these papers.

Hillary's high negatives aren't going away! In fact she may make those rise with her and the rhetoric of Penn and Wolfson!

[Leopolds Ghost]

27. "Centrist" Dems Plan on Demonizing Obama in Middle America Like You Did to Kerry, I See.

Do everything you can to destroy liberalism. It's OK -- Vichy Dems
are only ensuring your own destruction as a center-left, Weimar-style
political force.

[FlyingSquirrel]

28. dupe

delete

[FlyingSquirrel]

29. McCain's getting a honeymoon, and Obama's getting attacked in the press

probably by the Repugs. Hillary's getting a free ride in the press lately and so of course you're gonna see her numbers remain stable while Obama's fall.

DUH

This proves nothing, and certainly doesn't prove that Obama's a "weaker candidate". Just that he's the one currently being attacked.

[rodeodance]

30. SPREADING LIES about Hillary is VERY IMMATURE OF YOU

[JimGinPA]

34. You Calling Someone Else "Immature" Is The Height Of Hypocrisy

You're one of the most childish posters on this board.

[FlyingSquirrel]

39. Ok, she's just standing by. I'll buy that and edit my post

It does not change the essence of what I was saying.

[still_one]

51. Good analysis. Problem is no matter WHO are candidate is we will have

an up hill battle if nothing else than the media bias

The business shows have been not so subtlely suggesting that if the Democrats win you taxes will go up. Amazing since the economic disaster we are in today lies solely at the feet of the republicans

[judaspriestess]

31. kick

[better tomorrow]

37. and McCain doesn't even know the difference between....

a Sunni and a Shiite.....

[still_one]

49. and the Americans also voted for bush twice. They haven't gained that much smarts

even the 2006 election wasn't a mandate, even though the Democrats barely go a majority

[AZ Criminal JD]

54. Don't put your hopes on that.

99% of Americans and DUers don't either.

[Khaotic]

53. Soak it up while you can Hillbots

Right now we're just starting to see the first polls after the weekend loop of pastorgate.

You can lie to yourself and think that it's all over for Obama.

We haven't seen the first post-Obama race speech poll yet.

How long can the media beat this dead horse?

Eventually those trying to beat this drum will just sound stupid.

Even recycled attention for a Hollywood celebrity train wreck like Paris, Britney, or Lindsey Lohan eventually plays out. The fact is that if Britney doesn't flash some camel toe, Paris a new accidental internet porn vid, or Lohan busting into another tree, people get bored and tune out.

Britney is still in the grocery isle rags, but that's about it, unless you count South Park's sick creation of Britney trying to kill herself on their show last night.

Pastorgate has been a distraction, and if it was left untouched then Obama would go down. But he's not pulling a Kerry, he's coming back. The MSM might not want him to leave it behind so quickly, so they'll manufacture their own reality as usual. But Obama is doing what Obama does. He's not running, he's facing up to this.

We'll see where things are the weekend before the vote in Penn.

I think he'll pull out 60 delegates from that election. Another huge step for Obama on his way to 50%+1 of the pledged delegates and his eventual nomination.

In North Carolina today, Obama supporters showed up in such numbers they couldn't fit into the venue he was speaking at.

It's not Obama-mania ... it's about people who want to invest in people.

As he has stated ... We are the change we've been waiting for. He will help us make it happen.

[oasis]

56. Obama/Wright :"You are judged by the company you keep". (eom)

[HughBeaumont]

57. .

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/HughBeaumont/32