http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/episodes/20/documents/brez.carter/Reflections on Soviet intervention in Afghanistan
December 26, 1979
Memo to President from Zbigniew Brzezinski
A SOVIET VIETNAM?
However, we should not be too sanguine about Afghanistan becoming a Soviet Vietnam:
A. The guerrillas are badly organized and poorly led;
B. They have no sanctuary, no organized army, and no central government -- all of which North Vietnam had;
C. They have limited foreign support, in contrast to the enormous amount of arms that flowed to the Vietnamese from both the Soviet Union and China;
D. The Soviets are likely to act decisively, unlike the U.S., which pursued in Vietnam a policy of inoculating the enemy. As a consequence, the Soviets might be able to assert themselves effectively, and
world politics nothing succeeds like success, whatever the moral aspects.
WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
What follows are some preliminary thoughts, which need to be discussed more fully:
A. It is essential that Afghanistani resistance continues. This means more money as well as arms shipments to the rebels, and some technical advice;
B. To make the above possible we must both reassure Pakistan and encourage it to help the rebels. This will require a review of our policy toward Pakistan, more guarantees to it, more arms aid.
C. We should encourage the Chinese to help the rebels also.
D. We should concert with Islamic countries both a propaganda campaign and in a covert action campaign to help the rebels;
E. We should inform the Soviets that their actions are placing SALT in jeopardy and that will also influence the substance of the Brown visit to China, since the Chinese are doubtless going to be most concerned about implications for themselves of such Soviet assertiveness so close to their border. Unless we tell the Soviets will not take our "expressions of concern" very seriously, with the effect that our relations will suffer, without the Soviets ever having been confronted with the need to ask the question whether such local adventurism is worth the long-term damage to the U.S.-Soviet relationship;
F. Finally, we should consider taking Soviet actions in Afghanistan to the U.N. as a threat to peace.