Ezra Klein: After the Fact: I keep trying to figure out Clinton's path to the nomination, but can't.

[marmar]

from The American Prospect:



AFTER THE FACT.

I keep trying to figure out Clinton's path to the nomination. But I can't. She's not going to win with delegates, she's not going to win in the popular vote, and Michigan and Florida aren't revoting. Today, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen walk the same path:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

As it happens, many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.

In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe.

But it's a game of make-believe that's keeping the likely nominee locked in a useless and damaging deathmatch with Clinton, and keeping the party from turning its attention to John McCain. My understanding is that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid don't want to labor ineffectually beneath another Republican president, but at some point, they're going to have to ask themselves if that's important enough to actually do something about. For now, the Clinton campaign is like a rushing linebacker who doesn't know the winning pass was thrown and caught. They're not going to change the game, but they could really hurt the quarterback.

Posted by Ezra Klein on March 21, 2008 4:15 PM


http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=03&year=2008&base_name=after_the_fact

[Cha]

1. This would be the question for

Nancy and Harry.. "My understanding is that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid don't want to labor ineffectually beneath another Republican president, but at some point, they're going to have to ask themselves if that's important enough to actually do something about.."

Although, Nancy has surprised me when she made her statement about "the dream ticket" and a "split ticket".."Ain't gonna happen"..or something.

Edit~ It's out of bounds for the clintons to screw Obama over so they can cling to the hope of match with mccain in 2012.

[KellyW]

2. Clinton's path to the nomination is this

She wins Pennsylvania, and stays close enough in delegates that the swing of a 100 or so super delegates is all she needs. And wait- it is a long time between the last primaries the 1st week of June and the convention the last week of August. She has to hope that Obama stumbles badly. If, when the convention convenes Clinton is running 10% ahead of Obama and polls show him losing and her winning against McCain, enough SDs will flip to give her the nomination. –It may not seem likely (particularly to Obama fans), but it could happen. Remember how Dukakis imploded ?

[slinkerwink]

4. she would only get a 16 delegate advantage in Pennsylvania

and she still can't come close to Obama in terms of pledged delegates.

[wileedog]

6. And the party disintegrates into chaos

Blacks leave en masse when the overwhelmingly white Superdelegates throw out the rightfully elected black nominee. Millions of Obama supporters, who have worked their asses off to overcome her enormous lead before the voting started, tell the party where to stick it and follow them. Possibly a third party forms of these disgruntled people, syphoning off more votes.

She can perhaps slime her way into the nomination, but she cannot win the Presidency. She can only lose it for all of us.

Plus she has lost 48 Superdelegates since February, including some of the Clintons closest friends and allies. You really think 100 of them are going to swing on one state Primary in PA? Really?

[adoraz]

8. and you really believe she would beat McCain?

all Obama supporters would see this as a steal and feel cheated if the pledged are overturned. Her support from the 90% of Obama's supporters would go way, way down.

McCain would kill her in the GE.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

13. Someone please tell Hillary it's over.

[TheDoorbellRang]

9. If this goes to the convention, we all lose

There is only 9 weeks post convention to go after McCain, who will have spent the entire summer looking pretty to the electorate while both Dems are bloodied stumps. If Hillary continues on, she is doing it for her own chances in 2012 and not for the party or the country.

[Stephanie]

3. Oh, they KNOW the pass was caught, but they're hoping they can trip the quarterback

take him out of the game, move the goalposts, change the rules and break the ref's arm.

[Honeycombe8]

5. Here it is:Clinton loses but damages Obie, McCain wins & retires in 4yrs, Clinton runs 2012! nt

[adoraz]

10. won't work

she would be the Nader of the party.

She would receive no support from Obama supporters in 2012 if she drags this to the convention. She would be Nader.

Remember how much support Nader got in 2004 compared to 2000?

that is all you should need to know. She would be blamed for us losing this election.

[Honeycombe8]

12. Not if she drops out after PA. She will be hailed as a hero. And yet, the damage

will have been done. (And the Clintons can still continue to feed the damaging stuff to the McCain campaign; they may already be working together, if I'm understanding what some posters are saying.)

[FrenchieCat]

7. Bingo!

That's the real fairy tale!

[Yurovsky]

11. A likely scenario ...

and she has to figure Obama is toast if he goes down this year. Won't have to worry about running against him again.

One thing I know for sure ... the Clintons never do ANYTHING by accident.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. "...useless and damaging deathmatch ..."

useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch
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useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch
useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch
useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch
useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch useless and damaging deathmatch