Obama Needs 407 more delegates to reach 2,024. Where will he get them?

[FlyingSquirrel]

Here's one way...

(Obama has 1617 according to http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/)

43% of PA delegates = 65
56% of IN delegates = 37
54% of NC delegates = 49
39% of WV delegates = 10
46% of KY delegates = 22
46% of OR delegates = 22
44% of PR delegates = 22
54% of MT delegates = 8
54% of SD delegates = 8
33% of GU delegates = 1

47% of remaining 68 unassigned pledged delegates = 32

39% of remaining superdelegates = 131

Add it all up.

2,024 baby!

[quantass]

1. Doable

[grantcart]

2. very good

but I would like to suggest 1627 as a second goal.

Pelosi said that whoever gets half of the pledged delegates should become the nominee

Currently at 1406 he can reach that with 221 pledged delegates. With slightly different averages he hits it at Oregon.

Pelosi and many other super delegates would very likely endorse at that point.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. Possibly. If it goes that far they may as well wait 2 more weeks though

through June 3. So they probably will (again, if it goes that far) even if it's painfully obvious that Clinton can't win, just to let the process be completely played out first.

I actually believe Obama will beat many of the numbers in my OP, was purposely underestimating to make it difficult to disprove without resorting to the MI/FL argument.

[UALRBSofL]

29. Sorry to disappoint you Obamaborgs

But he will not get the nomination. Clinton will win enough seated delegates and popular vote and she will win the nomination.

[FlyingSquirrel]

32. Sorry to have to tell U this but...

The tooth fairy isn't real. Neither is the Easter Bunny.

(Santa Claus is, though. No worries there.)

[Hepburn]

34. OMG....thanks for the laugh...

...:rofl:

[madrchsod]

42. obamaborgs?

[Benhurst]

9. Too bad Pelosi isn't as good when it comes to protecting the Constitution and

stopping illegal wars as she is about making up rules as she goes along.

[pingzing58]

3. Thanks for the post and NO HE WILL NOT GET THEM!!

[Yes We Did]

4. I thought you guys didn't believe in hope.

I keep telling you, you don't get to have it both ways.

[Unsane]

13. can I use your sig?

[redstate_democrat]

5. YES HE WILL!

[Capn Sunshine]

6. right on schedule

We'll get more when Hillary withdraws--

[thoughtcrime1984]

8. Not only is that doable

It is highly likely, given that he should get more than 39% of the remaining SD's. Your delegate calculations are very reasonable, even if a bit conservative, IMO.

[mahina]

10. +3 more Hawaii superdelegates

when we vote for our state chair, DNC rep, and at large during our convention. The current DNC rep has done such a great job, worked his heart out for years, but he is hard core Clinton, and Hawaii is...70%+ for our man Barack Obama.

[grantcart]

12. there are 81 add on super delegates that will be decided on in the next 2 months

[Divine Discontent]

11. the writing's been on the wall for weeks...

so what is surprising to me is seeing Hillary Clinton continue to prod along like she is neck-and-neck with Obama knowing he has this locked up, and figuring the only way to somehow give her any chance of getting the nom is to play very dirty and use gutter politics as much as possible without downright causing people to throw tomatoes at her.

I cannot understand why she cannot be a beloved Democratic leader, much like Edwards was for dropping out when it was obvious he could not get ahead of both candidates.

[hogwyld]

17. I think at this point

She's just trying to damage Obama badly so that McSame wins, and keep on collecting campaign donations in order to try again in '12.

[SoCalDem]

18. What if she loses her seat in '10?

She's made some enemies this year..just sayin..

she may need to spend all that money and then some, just to hang on in'10

[Zen Democrat]

22. I think she's not up again until 2012.

[SoCalDem]

25. whoops.. you're right

:blush:

[Divine Discontent]

26. that's how many felt about her in 04 with Kerry...

I didn't see that, but they say it was obvious that she and Bill really didn't do a lot for him, especially her, but maybe Kerry rebuked it from her, and just took Bill's couple of appearances due to his heart. Regardless, based on her actions this past 60 days, one can easily see how she might be doing just as you typed!

[CarbonDate]

14. All he has to do is "lose small" in the remaining states.

To use a football analogy, run the ball, grind out the clock, run a prevent defense when Hillary's on offense, and the nomination's his. He doesn't need to go for touchdowns; field goals will win him the game at this point.

Hillary, on the other hand, has to air it out hoping for big gains and go into a no-huddle on offense, try to strip the ball or go for a pick on defense, and possibly even try for on-side kicks after they score. It's not enough to out-score him at this point; she has to out-score him by a lot.

We're in the fourth quarter and Hillary's down by 17. It can be done, but... damn, that's a huge mountain to climb.

[davidpdx]

15. I love how you said he has to "lose" the small states, you are right she'll do anything to dismiss

the states she loses. It will be interesting when Obama wins Oregon and Hillary dismisses yet another state that doesn't count.

[psychopomp]

16. A good thread

GObama!
:bounce::bounce::toast::bounce::bounce::toast::bounce::bounce::toast::bounce::bounce:

[FrenchieCat]

19. Excellent!

Very doable....

[rucky]

20. The Super-D's need to crap or get off the pot. n/t

[mythyc]

21. you know FS, I think we're on the same wavelength again

We should go to Vegas eh? ;)

was crunching the numbers again myself and a separate thought occurred to me. MSM, almost all of them, are now only quoting the pledged delegate totals. Do a casual tour of video clips (where most American consumers get their updates), and you'll see that they're taling in terms of the 1400/1300s range.

I was thinking about it and it hit me --- a month ago they were all including the supers in their totals --- back when these figure made BO and HRC seem closer to each other. But now it's the other way around: they're leaving the supers out so as to make victory seem more distance and less achievable, hell, less possible even. they seem to want to make each of them seem further away from that magic number now. It's uncanny. All about perception, and their need to control it. Every day you hear about Party civil wars, about brokered conventions, about Superdelegates moving en masse at the last minute through some seedy back room deal to overturn the will of the people. They're trying to manipulate this shit, and every last network maintains, with no room for disagreement that "Neither candidate CAN get the #s needed to secure the nomination." BS. your thread proves that even by a conservative estimate, it's going to be easier for BO to wrap this up than the "impossibility" they're making it out to be.

They want the story, want the controversy, want the punditry, and want the freegin mind control, but we already knew that :eyes:

thanks for the numbers! rant over....

p.s. is Obama averaged at 43 in PN? I thought it was lower, but havent checked since yesterday...

[FlyingSquirrel]

35. I made the assumption that half the undecideds each go to H & O

In general. Some of the numbers are educated guesses based on percentages in red primaries, red caucuses, blue primaries... etc. And generally rounded down to give Hillary the benefit of the doubt.

[ellisonz]

23. He'll win Oregon by a good margin.

[FlyingSquirrel]

36. I agree.. was being conservative to a fault.

I expect him to do better than nearly all my numbers in the OP.

[rug]

24. Looks like he's going to lose at least 6 of the last 10 contests.

Momentum baby!

[psychopomp]

27. kick

:kick:

[ButterflyBlood]

28. Obama will win Oregon

I've got little doubt on that.

[FlyingSquirrel]

37. Agreed. Was being conservative.

[Skip Intro]

30. It's fun to hope!

[aaroh]

31. Guam is an Obama state, he should get at least 2

[slick8790]

33. They only have 4 delegates.

So one of them would need to get greater than 64% of the vote to make it a 3-1 split.

[FlyingSquirrel]

40. I had them with 3 delegates. Mighta made mistake though.

Gave it to Hillary 2-1 'cause I was being as conservative as possible with my predictions.

[FlyingSquirrel]

38. Probably true. Since there's only 3 for Guam, I gave benefit of doubt

to Hillary, as I did in most of the remaining states. Just to show that even being conservative, he wins easily.

[Barack_America]

39. Obama will do...

Better than you've predicted in PA (I say 45-46%)
Worse than you've predicted for IN (52% tops)
Much better in OR (at least 55%)
Better in MT

Overall, I agree this is very doable! Especially if a few more superdelegates signal that this is all but locked up!

[FlyingSquirrel]

41. I think you're probably right

about PA.. not sure about IN. 55% in OR seems a bit high since it's a primary and Hillary did well in the WA primary. Maybe 52-53% in OR. Possibly a little better in MT but not much.

Overall I was trying to be pretty conservative in my Obama numbers.

[Barack_America]

43. .

True. But the Washington primary was so anti-climatic. It wasn't worth anything so it's not surprising that the Obama folks didn't show up. They'd already made their influence known. I also think that the momentum behind Obama at that point (Oregon) will make a significant difference.

[here_is_to_hope]

44. Oregon at 47% for Obama?

No no, more, much more. I would think closer to 60%. I see very little support for Clinton on the blogs and no buzz whatsoever. But Obama? Even before his swing through the state, the buzz was palpable...
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