It occurs to me. If Obama's race speech was his answer to swiftboating, and it doesn't work

[LittleClarkie]

God forbid, but for the sake of argument.

It will make me wonder how effective rapid response is against swiftboating. Is the damage done once the attacks start? Are people still listening even a week later when the answer from the campaign comes out? Do you reach the same number of people with your response? Are people patient enough to even listen to a whole speech?

Many have faulted Kerry in 2004 for not responding for a couple of weeks to the swiftboating, hoping it would go away. So Obama responded forcefully within days or at least a week of the attacks starting re: Wright.

But that puts the fault on the victim instead of the attacker. That's part of what bothers me about blaming Kerry over the smear vets themselves.

Some pundits have said that Obama responded perfectly to the smears, and show us how it's done, and even that it was his trial by fire. So he got generally good grades for that speech.

But what if no one was listening.

[2rth2pwr]

1. Obama answered the wrong question.

[Inuca]

10. He didn't

He reframed the question within a wider and more meaningful context.

[2rth2pwr]

13. The only measure that counts is the voters.

[Big Blue Marble]

19. He is surging in the polls.

he has recovered. It is over. He will be the nominee and the President of The United States.

[JoFerret]

49. LCTVs. lets count the votes.

the actual votes.

[LibraLiz1973]

2. His response was ridiculous

I found it mildly insulting as an American with both a brain and a conscience.

[Inuca]

11. This is a very difficult to understand comment n/t

[JFN1]

15. Please elaborate

Exactly how did his speech insult you?

[Big Blue Marble]

20. His response to the attacks was brilliant.

You are in a minority if you feel that he did not do enough to counter the
attacks. Most feel that he succeeded beyond expectations.

[virtualobserver]

3. you have months to reply in a sustained way.....

in a steady, persuasive process. Obama will reframe this for the remainder of the campaign.

[tyne]

4. The rabid right

will fall over themselves saying blatant racist statements in the GE. They won't be able to help themselves.

This will reinforce the "myth" that repubs are bigots and racists because those blatant comments will be seen over and over and over again. The majority of America won't want to keep company with that party.

Trust me.

[virtualobserver]

6. also, as each month passes, the economy......

will become the dominant topic in the minds of Americans.

And it is going to be bad, my friends.

[dansolo]

17. Have people forgotten what happened at the 1992 Republican National Convention?

Pat Buchanan's racist rant was probably the one thing that tipped the scales towards Bill Clinton in that election.

[2rth2pwr]

51. Every statement from Hillary's campaign is already branded

as racist.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. When you can clearly see the shape of a distant attack coming before it actually arrives

it is not good enough to swiftly respond when it does. It is better to preempt it in the first place.

[LordJFT]

7. I met a congressional candidate who got swiftboated in 06

He was a military veteran, but instead of going after his record they just lied about his position on social security and other issues. One attack ad had a sniper rifle focused on a couple of kids and the announcer said "this candidate wants to target your kids." He's running again this term and he's doing what are known as innoculation ads where he says "you're gonna hear a lot about me that may not be true so don't believe unless it comes from me. And have your remote ready so that you can change the channel when these ads come on." I think this is the kind of thing that Obama needs to start doing.

[GoldieAZ49]

8. His speech didn't answer the question of his judgment in association

with a pastor that preachers divisiveness for 20 yrs. It didn't answer why he intentionally hid this man from the public from the beginning of his campaign.

He gave a speech on race.


When someone asks you what time it is and you tell them how the watch is made, they still wonder what time it is.

goes to credibility, what else is he hiding?

[Drachasor]

14. When you find that Pastor that preched divisiveness for 20 years let me know

Wright ain't that guy. A few lines in the last few years that attendees of Trinity have said are very atypical does not make him a preacher of divisiveness.

Seriously, get some perspective. And Obama did address this aspect in his speech, which I can only guess you ignored because it didn't confirm your presupposition.

[GoldieAZ49]

16. Didn't you listen to Obama, his words, not mine:

As such, Reverend Wright's comments were not only wrong but divisive, divisive at a time when we need unity; racially charged at a time when we need to come together to solve a set of monumental problems - two wars, a terrorist threat, a falling economy, a chronic health care crisis and potentially devastating climate change; problems that are neither black or white or Latino or Asian, but rather problems that confront us all.

[Drachasor]

18. Obama didn't say Wright preached divisiveness for 20 years

Heck, he didn't even say Wright preached divisiveness regularly for the past 8 years (or at any time).

[GoldieAZ49]

22. Wright has been preaching for 36 years - whatever sells I guess

but it is a no sell all across America

[Drachasor]

29. You completely miss my point and miss Obama's own comments on his pastor

Obama himself stated in his speech Tuesday:
Given my background, my politics, and my professed values and ideals, there will no doubt be those for whom my statements of condemnation are not enough. Why associate myself with Rev. Wright in the first place, they may ask? Why not join another church?

And I confess that if all that I knew of Rev. Wright were the snippets of those sermons that have run in an endless loop on the television and YouTube, or if Trinity United Church of Christ conformed to the caricatures being peddled by some commentators, there is no doubt that I would react in much the same way

But the truth is, that isn't all that I know of the man. The man I met more than 20 years ago is a man who helped introduce me to my Christian faith, a man who spoke to me about our obligations to love one another; to care for the sick and lift up the poor.

He is a man who served his country as a U.S. Marine, who has studied and lectured at some of the finest universities and seminaries in the country, and who for over thirty years led a church that serves the community by doing God's work here on Earth -- by housing the homeless, ministering to the needy, providing day care services and scholarships and prison ministries, and reaching out to those suffering from HIV/AIDS.

In my first book, "Dreams From My Father," I described the experience of my first service at Trinity:

"People began to shout, to rise from their seats and clap and cry out, a forceful wind carrying the reverend's voice up into the rafters....And in that single note -- hope! -- I heard something else; at the foot of that cross, inside the thousands of churches across the city, I imagined the stories of ordinary black people merging with the stories of David and Goliath, Moses and Pharaoh, the Christians in the lion's den, Ezekiel's field of dry bones.

"Those stories -- of survival, and freedom, and hope -- became our story, my story; the blood that had spilled was our blood, the tears our tears; until this black church, on this bright day, seemed once more a vessel carrying the story of a people into future generations and into a larger world.

"Our trials and triumphs became at once unique and universal, black and more than black; in chronicling our journey, the stories and songs gave us a means to reclaim memories that we didn't need to feel shame about...memories that all people might study and cherish -- and with which we could start to rebuild."

That has been my experience at Trinity. Like other predominantly black churches across the country, Trinity embodies the black community in its entirety -- the doctor and the welfare mom, the model student and the former gang-banger.

Like other black churches, Trinity's services are full of raucous laughter and sometimes bawdy humor. They are full of dancing, clapping, screaming and shouting that may seem jarring to the untrained ear.

The church contains in full the kindness and cruelty, the fierce intelligence and the shocking ignorance, the struggles and successes, the love and yes, the bitterness and bias that make up the black experience in America.

And this helps explain, perhaps, my relationship with Rev. Wright. As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me. He strengthened my faith, officiated my wedding, and baptized my children.

Not once in my conversations with him have I heard him talk about any ethnic group in derogatory terms, or treat whites with whom he interacted with anything but courtesy and respect. He contains within him the contradictions -- the good and the bad -- of the community that he has served diligently for so many years.

In other words, those disgraceful comments by Wright are by far an exception to what he said usually. They did not typify his sermons.

[blm]

9. Actually, Obama's fortune is that his speech was covered. Kerry's counter speech was NOT

broadcast and barely even reported as a news story by the newsmedia because they were in full protect the Bushboy mode.

DanRather has admitted the media needed to keep Bush in office for a second term for the favorable rulings on media ownership they expected from him.

[Cha]

25. And they're protecting mccain and

anyone else who will protect their media ownership..so it's already treason.

[Life Long Dem]

12. For Kerry it was a couple months before the election

Kerry didn't have time to turn the tide. With Obama it is out much earlier. So the effect won't be the same besides check out the rocket taking off in this graph!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

21. travel around the board and you will see its effect..."the speech was wonderful" but many

don't trust him anymore and his Indy voters are fleeing \back to McCain in droves

[DerekJ]

23. Let me ask you this, Do you think the independents will decide the outcome in the GE? eom

[ElsewheresDaughter]

24. If Obama is the nom, yes, they are a large part of his base

[DerekJ]

31. Good. I will bite.

I will assume with you that Hillary has the larger share of the democratic party, and that Obama overtakes her because of his appeal to the independents.

So if I get it right you do agree that independents are a part of his base, and you do agree they either flock to him or flock to McCain, but never to Hillary.
Lets also agree that the vast majority of Hillary’s democratic base will flock to Obama (not being happy about it, but will do it as he is the democratic nominee after all, and their other option is McLame), and vice versa.


Let me know if I am correct before I continue.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

34. basicly yes .....go on

[DerekJ]

38. ok.. here it goes.

Alright so scenario number 1: Hillary wins the nomination and goes to fight McCain in the GE.
1-Democrats will line up behind her in full force with the exception of some young voters who will not be as enthusiastic to turn up for the election.

2-Hillary will energize middle aged (mostly white) democratic female voters.

3-I expect and I could be wrong, that democratic black voters turn out will be quite low.

4-Independents will flock to McCain.

5-Republican base will be highly energized to vote against her.

6- Hillary will lose the sexiest votes

Scenario number 2: Obama wins the nomination

1-Democrats will line up behind him in full force with the exception of some white female democrats.

2-Young voters will turn out in droves.

3-Black voters turn out will be record breaking.

4-Obama will either be able to gain the independents back (notice the he starting to pull ahead again in the polls which indicates he is gaining some independent voters back), or at least minimize McCain’s gain with them.

5-Republican base will be most likely be indifferent to Obama, and many who might choose to sit out this election because they hate McCain, might actually just skip the election.

6-Obama has a small appeal (not big as some would like to make it, may be 3 or 4 percentage points) within the republican voters that he might be able to make them vote for him.

7-Obama will lose the racist votes

I think scenario number 2 is a winner because:

1-Hillary’s base is mostly democrats. The vast majority will line up behind Obama as agreed and he will offset any losses due to emotionally charged primaries with the high turnout of young voters, and black voters. In that sense they are tied.

2- Obama has a clear advantage when it comes to independents, and republicans that will probably tip the race towards him.
Let me know what you think.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

39. those Indy's and Repubs will not be there for Obama at all in Nov

he can not win in Nov. without them

they crossed over to vote 1 time Dem to muddy our water


so now what?

[DerekJ]

40. Notice that even if you remove the Independents and Republicans, he is still tied with Hillary.

So worst case scenario, he is on par with Hillary. Best case scenario, he takes the Independents and few republicans.

Add to that financially, Obama has proved to be doing much better than Hillary which will give him a good edge.

Edite: typo

[ElsewheresDaughter]

42. the indy have fled in the wake of the Wright thing & I believe Primary money can't be used in the GE

Obama is a big chance with much yet to learn about big house politics and campaigning and I'm not willing to take it, so I'm going to continue to work for Hillary and "Hope"

I will vote for Obama if he is the nom

[DerekJ]

43. It’s a good question; I am not sure if primary money can be used for the GE,

and if it can’t what happens to it.
I think I read somewhere it can be. However I am not sure. I was speaking about the donor base that he has built.

In all cases I commend you for taking the high road. I believe most if not all of the people threatening to sit out this election on both sides will re-evaluate their stance when it’s time for the GE. We are all high on emotions right now, and once the dust settles the choices will be clear. No one wants a third bush term.

Thanks for taking the time to talk to me. :hi:

Hillary is sure lucky to have you as a supporter.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

44. You're correct the nom can use the money from the primary in the GE

as a matter of fact they both have been squirreling away millions during the Primary for just that.

This old article says Hillary has saved about 22% of her Primary monies and Obama about 12%


Link: If they don't get their party's nomination, presidential candidates have a few options for their leftover money.

http://www.capitaleye.org/inside.asp?ID=321

It was a real pleasure talking with you also.

And likewise is Obama lucky to have yours.

I'm looking forward to the dust settling to the ground too.

niters

:hi:

[blm]

47. Baloney - Have you questioned Bush's approval ratings and declared that Indy and GOP voters

polled have just been pretending to disapprove of Bush's presidency the last 3 years?

YOU think Bush's low poll numbers only come from Democrats? You are aware that Dems WIN in 2006 because of GOPs and Independents sick of Bush and the GOP don't you?

[Seeker30]

45. Dems will not line up in full force

25% have already said they will not vote for him and I suspect the number is even higher. Independents are more likely to vote for Hillary than Obama, because of Wright Obama has lost voters all across the spectrum.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

28. "travel around the board"

What do you mean by board exactly?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

35. i meant political discussion "boards" on the web...my bad

[ecstatic]

26. It's out of our hands, and Obama's hands. The MSM can choose to continue

playing Wright clips all the way up to election day. I know Fox certainly will. The true question is, will Americans fall for it, or are they truly ready for change?

[sandnsea]

27. That's just the BEGINNING

Did you watch his speech last night or this morning? He's still working on taking back the 3 AM phone call. He'll KEEP talking about race, every single day, until his response works its way into the mainstream. That's how he does it, broken record, every parent knows that trick.

[Patsy Stone]

30. People were listening

and we've barely scratched the surface of the Republicans' ties to extremist pastors. Let's not forget Reagan sold the Republican party to Jerry Falwell.

I'm sure this will resurface during the GE, but the comparisons between Falwell saying September 11th was due to our acceptance of Jews and homosexuals, or any of Pat Robertson's or Rod Parsley's hateful beliefs probably won't play too well with sentient Independents or even too many left-leaning to moderate Republican voters.

[metalluk]

32. k&r

[rucky]

33. If no one is listening...

we deserve the government we get.

It's the best example of wielding control over an ill-informed populace that doesn't learn critical thinking in school.

[NNN0LHI]

36. Here is the problem

I could spend half an hour. Maybe even an hour? Maybe more? Talking and pleading to convince a group of on the fence independent voters to go with Obama because it is in their own best interest to do so. I could do it. Honest I could do it. There is no doubt in my mind that I could do it. Take a little while but dammit I could do it.

But when those same people get home or to the bar later that day and look up at the TV and see just a 15 second clip of Wright in the pulpit all my talking and pleading will be for naught. They wouldn't even have to hear any audio or anything. Just seeing Wright and Obama on their TV sets for 15 seconds will be enough to turn off most voters I know. I have no idea of how to defend against that?

Don

[Major Hogwash]

37. Very thoughtful post.

And very direct, right to the heart of the matter.

Not only are you correct about Kerry, being made out to be the bad guy for not proving the Swiftboaters were liars, but asking if anyone was listening at that point is a very valid question, indeed.

Almost 4000 men and women have been killed in the Iraq War.
Over 120,000 have been wounded, many severely, having arms and legs amputated.

Do you think the Republican National Convention will hand out "purple heart bandaids" this year, like they did in 2004?

Do you think the Republicans that attend the RNC convention will mock the wounds or the medals received by our soldiers for being wounded in Iraq?

Do you think they will ever apologize for that completely shameful display of ignorance?

I don't think they will.

I don't think they have any sense of shame anymore whatsoever.

[JoFerret]

41. LCTV

let's count the votes

[Beacool]

46. Pundits are not middle America.

The average person will not forget Wright's words. I have already heard about it at work, the laundromat, church, the supermarket and from various friends and acquaintances. Even the hispanic lady that cleans the pantries at work, who barely speaks English, mentioned it.

Wright's rantings brought out a visceral reaction from people. The "God Damn America" and "Hillary ain't never been called a n....r" will not soon be forgotten.

[JoFerret]

48. This is irrelevant to your post but

that pic of Kerry almost makes me think he is clawing at his own face.

[Eric J in MN]

50. Speeches aren't enough. Kerry should have promptly run TV ads...

...to counter the Swift Boat Veterans (his ex-wife offered to talk about his injuries for a TV commercial, but Bob Shrum said No.)

Similarly, Obama should run an ad with the line-from-the-speech saying that he disagrees with some things his pastor says as many of you may disagree with your pastors, etc.