Anecdotal evidence from Pennsylvania

[spinbaby]

I've spent the last two weekends registering voters for the Obama campaign in rural Western PA. This is an area that tends to register Democratic but votes Republican in national races. They're heavily into Fox News out here. When we're sitting in public registering voters, we have to be non-partisan--we don't link ourselves to the Obama campaign and we register anyone, no matter what their inclination. We don't ask who they're voting for and we don't talk about the candidates. But sometimes people volunteer who they're voting for.

Last weekend, several people told us they were voting for Hillary. No one mentioned Obama at all. Frankly, I wondered if it was a good idea for the Obama campaign to register voters out where there was such a heavy Clinton presence.

This weekend--same kind of crowd--about two thirds of the comments I heard were for Obama. It felt like something changed.

May have been just a coincidence, but I'm feeling encouraged about Pennsylvania. Maybe we, too, can be one of those states that "doesn't count."

[RazBerryBeret]

1. Hey Neighbor!!

Ohioan here, I HOPE your state won't "count"!!! we didn't get it right here in Ohio...but we were
in the middle of NAFTA gate and "shame on you" -- I'm still angry about all that!

GO PA!!!

[Drachasor]

2. We didn't get it right in 2004 either

:(
Our State has been a bit disappointing.

[RazBerryBeret]

5. yes...I know the feeling...

Ohio hasn't gotten it right since Clinton...
although there have been some "malfunctions" along the way!!!
I worked the 2004 election --- and it just wasn't right.

we have to win in a BIG way this time! knowing we will lose a certain percentage to "malfunction"....

[better tomorrow]

40. The reason that Western PA is into O'Reilley and Limbaugh is....

because it is so rural and they don't have much CHOICE of TV stations or radio. My step daughter works in a factory in McKean county and they are forced to listen to Limbaugh for three hours a day by the coporate heads since that is all they get there.

I hope they get their heads out of the sand. Lord knows I keep sending them daily emails to hopefully share around the town since that is all they have to do for fun....

GLAD I LEFT.....

Thanks for doing what you are doing, though. What county are your working in?

[JimGinPA]

3. LOL. My Area Has Voted Mostly Repub Since The Civil War

K&R

[spinbaby]

So you live out in the boonies, too?

I'm in the wilds of Washington county.

[JimGinPA]

Kinda Sorta...

I live on the main street of a town in Lancaster County, just outside of Lancaster, but I do have buggies go by my house every day. But I'm only 45 minutes from Philly, in case I get the urge for the "big city".


B-)

[spinbaby]

9. I'm about the same distance from PIttsburgh

Close enough to work near Pittsburgh, far away enough to live without city water.

[Cha]

4. Was it The Speech, spinbaby?!

The Speech of the ages that came from Obama stepping up to the challenge for all of us to learn something from the adversity of our racism in this country?

[jackson_dem]

8. No. Every poll, both in PA and nationally, shows the speech did nothing for Obama

Only Obama's most zealous supporters think it is the greatest speech ever.

[Cooley Hurd]

11. My sister was a (NYS) Hillary supporter UNTIL the speech...

....she said she got a lump in her throat during it and now will support Obama.

[jackson_dem]

12. That doesn't disprove what I said

It is entirely possible that the hype moved some folks into his column--but also moved an equal number of folks out of his column and hence left his numbers the same as before "the speech." Why do you think his advisers didn't want him to give the speech? They knew the risk, especially for a candidate polling at 23% with whites in PA and 30% in NC even before "the speech."

[Cha]

23. Great! All the people I talk to in NY

were Obama supporters before the speech but it just cemented their good judgement:)

[Barack_America]

13. Um. You might want to look at today's Gallup poll.

As well as CBS's poll pertaining directly to the speech.

Funny, I don't see how you could've missed those polls on here. They've been widely cited.

[jackson_dem]

16. Yeah, he is where he was before "the speech" in the Gallup poll

The CBS poll is BS. Of course everyone is going to say they agreed with it. He said racism is bad. Wow! What as novel idea for a mainstream politician! What counts is whether it moved voters.

[Barack_America]

19. Isn't that where the "are you more or less likely to support" question comes in?

:shrug:

[jackson_dem]

20. Not if it makes no difference in the actual "who will you vote for?" response

That question is a push poll type one anyway. Unless he goes up where it counts I wouldn't put any stock in it.

[Barack_America]

24. 22% of Dems are more likely to vote for Obama post-Wright/Speech.

8% are less likely to vote for him due to these events.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/21/opinion/polls/main3958295.shtml

[jackson_dem]

32. Push poll. The actual numbers haven't moved. In fact he is down in Rassmussen

[JimGinPA]

44. Better Check The Latest Polls...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[Blarch]

33. "Yeah, he is where he was before "the speech"

Ya, it's called the lead.

[krkaufman]

35. lather. rinse. repeat.

Or, in the words of one of our lesser Presidents... catapult that propaganda.

[spinbaby]

10. Didn't ask

We were told we had to stay neutral. On Tuesday we'll be done registering and can start some serious campaigning.

[Cha]

22. Thanks and Good for you! It

was kinda of rhetorical question..the timing and all. :)

[bluestateguy]

6. I'd be grateful for a 10 point loss

nt

[krkaufman]

36. Yeah, I've been thinking 15% or less would be decent (> 15% less than good)

... single digits would be great; and a win would be complete end of story (against any candidate not undead).

[Yael]

7. Thanks for the report!

[David Zephyr]

14. I love these first hand reports. Thanks spinbaby!

The polls mirror your own empirical evidence. Great stuff! And most of all, thanks for your work, your effort, your giving you time. You rock.


:yourock:

[MH1]

15. To be honest, Obama's already campaigning for the GE.

Getting someone registered is only half the battle. Getting them to show up at the poll is the other half.

Get them registered before the primary, then if they blow that one off, or screw up their schedule or whatever, they get a second chance in November.

Getting more dem voters registered is the goal. If some of them vote for Hillary in the primary, so be it. They'll still probably vote for Obama in the GE, and that's what matters.

ETA: thanks for the report, I don't mean to sound critical or pedantic, I am just responding to your first observation about "why register voters where there's so much Hillary support?"

[spinbaby]

17. Yeah, you're right

But it made for a rather discouraging afternoon.

[MH1]

18. True, I can understand that.

I'm glad it's looking better. Thank you for your efforts!

[MindMatter]

26. Some of them are probably "doing a Limbaugh"

Registering so that they can vote for Clinton in order to give McCain the best chance in November. However, we should work to register them anyway. There is a long time between now and November. Obama has a chance to win over a lot of them. And the Economy is only going to get worse as long as Bush is in office.

There will be millions who don't really plan to vote for Obama today, who may be looking at things very differently by November.

So keep up the good work. Don't worry about the Clinton supporters. She is irrelevant now. Start the process of winning these people over by welcoming them to democracy.

[MindMatter]

21. 90% of the people posting Hillary messages here are freeper trolls

I am struck by how many of the Obama supporters here at DU have posted stories of their hands-on activities in the campaign -- registering voters, attending rallies, manning phone banks, making donations. You almost never hear that kind of thing from the people making all the noise for Clinton here. That makes me believe most of the Clinton noise is from trolls. I doubt that the real division in the party is nearly as great as is suggested by the recent hostilities here.

[WinkyDink]

25. If you want "anecdotal evidence": Thousands stood for HOURS waiting to hear Bill Clinton

in Bethlehem (I was there), Allentown, Wilkes-Barre, and Stroudsburg.
Our Lt. Gov., mayors, and a State Rep intro'ed him, and Union leaders stood by him.

PA. is Hillary Country.

BTW: Bill is not the candidate, so don't compare to Obama's crowds. Save that for when the 2 candidates come here.

[AllentownJake]

28. Hillary Supporters

The thing about Hillary is it isn't as much of a grass root effort as the Obama campaign is. I live in Allentown and Obama had 3 campaign offices in the area called the Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton) 3 cities essentially built ontop of each other before Hillary had one office open. She's making little to no attempt to register new voters for good reason. As a generality first time voters have trended towards Obama. Her focus is going to be GOTV and that's it out here it isn't getting new people into the process.

On Bill Clinton. I'm as Obama as you can and have used my past 3 saturdays for the campaign however I might even go to see Bill. I talked to other Obama volunteers who went. They go to see Bill. They are still going to vote for Obama. Bill was the rock start in 1992 and did alot of good for the country. I respect him despite the fact I'm voting for Obama.

Also from being on the ground here the past 3 weeks as anecdotal evidence. Most people like both Obama and Hillary they just like one a little more. It isn't the death match I see on here. That's a good thing for the Democratic Party no matter what happens.

[JimGinPA]

31. No Shit...

One of my best friends and his wife are fiercely democratic, and he says they don't care which of them wins as long as one of them beats McSame. He knows I'm a volunteer for Obama and has even said he may come to a meeting sometime. It drives me nuts that he hasn't made up his mind who he's gonna vote for in the primary yet.

:banghead:

[hisownpetard]

27. Thanks for keeping us in the loop. It's sounding great!

And thanks for the good work you're doing. That's awesome.

[blue neen]

29. I was working in the Obama campaign office today in Westmoreland County.

Four people came in to change their registration from Republican to Democratic just so they could vote for Obama...and that was in one hour. The woman who was phone banking next to me was previously a Republican...she was a middle-aged white woman, like me.

A lot of people came in looking for yard signs, bumper stickers, and pins. The yard signs aren't in yet so they took window signs.

Westmoreland County also holds a Democratic registration edge but has gone for Bush in the last two elections. This is basically a relatively conservative rural area, but I know a lot of people who want to vote for Obama.

Thanks for the work you are doing. :toast:

[JimGinPA]

34. I Don't Want To Get My Hopes Up...

But wouldn't it be sweet if PA is the end of the line for HRC and we can start working for Nov.

By the way, thanks to you too.

:toast:

[ashrob123]

37. I Registered voters in PA today

My girlfriend and I drove to PA (from DC area) to help with registering voters today in Harrisburg. By noon there were around 400 volunteers canvasing different neighborhoods asking people to register to vote for the primary. It was exhilarating as I've never volunteered for a politician before (and don't expect I will again until Obama gets the nomination). They set a goal of 1,500 new or switched voters by the end of the weekend. They hit 3,000 this evening and they are going back out tomorrow.

Even though I have heard that that area is not "Barack's demographic" he's making headway in places where even the locals are surprised.

I think he will surprise some people in the PA primary.

[blue neen]

38. Thank you so much for coming to PA to volunteer.

You don't know how much we appreciate it! :toast:

I'm so glad you had a successful day and agree with you that Obama may surprise some people in our primary.

Welcome to DU! :)

[JimGinPA]

39. Wow! That's Awesome!

There was a guy here from NJ yesterday that spoke Spanish who registered so many Hispanic people I saw him come in at least three times for new forms.

Welcome to DU from me as well!

:toast:

[spinbaby]

43. I think Obama will surprise big time!

It's incredible how many volunteers he has on the ground. If enthusiastic volunteers count for anything, we've got Pennsylvania!

[Mike03]

30. An Obama victory in Penn would help. People don't seem to understand

why he's the front runner when he doesn't win the big states.

And to be honest, I don't understand all of this either. So I would really feel reassured if he would capture a state like Pennsylvania.

[davidpdx]

41. Thanks to everyone campaign for Obama in Penn

As an overseas voter watching the election from Korea I worry about what will happen in November. I proudly support Obama and have a campaign pin I wear everywhere I go here as well as lawnsigns up in my window. I also have signs up in my office (as do others who support Obama).

[WinkyDink]

42. Can we PLEASE agree to abbreviate my state as "PA"? THANKS.

I don't see this made-up spelling with any other state.

"PENN" is the nickname of a certain Ivy League university in Philadelphia.