THE MATH - Easter Sunday, March 23, - Just the Stats

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Easter Sunday, March 23 – Just the Stats

TIME - 6:45 a.m. Eastern Time (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.0 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,669.0 of 3,235.0 – 82.5%

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THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 112.5 of 317 remaining superdelegates needed, or 35.5%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 223.5 of 317 remaining superdelegates needed, or 70.5%

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TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 23:
Hillary Clinton – 1,504.5 (519.5 short)
Barack Obama – 1,641.5 (382.5 short)
Remaining Delegates – 883.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 3/23/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 255 (Source: NBC 3/23/08)
Barack Obama – 222 (Source: NBC 3/23/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 317

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 23:
Hillary Clinton – 1,249.5
Barack Obama – 1,419.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/23/08)

“Primary Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 23: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 1,090.0
Barack Obama – 1,107.0
(Source: Countdown with Keith Olbermann, 3/10/08, plus MS)

“Caucus Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 23: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 159.5
Barack Obama – 312.5
(based on source for “primary only” pledged delegates above)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON

Hillary Clinton – 15
Barack Obama – 30
(Source: DailyKos 3/17/08)

PRIMARIES WON

Hillary Clinton – 12
Barack Obama – 16

CAUCUSES WON

Hillary Clinton – 3
Barack Obama – 14

BLUE AND RED STATES WON

Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Total weighted* popular vote as of March 23:
Barack Obama – 15,764,931 (+1,671,721)
Hilary Clinton – 14,093,210
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Status Quo unweighted as of March 23 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666 (+740,818)
Hillary Clinton – 12,903,848
(Source: Wikipedia 3/23/08 plus states listed above)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 23 (includes WA):
Barack Obama – 13,173,496 (+533,947)
Hillary Clinton – 12,639,549

Caucuses only weighted* popular vote as of March 23:
Barack Obama – 2,594,460 (+1,140,799)
Hilary Clinton – 1,453,661
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Caucuses only (Status Quo) unweighted total caucus votes as of March 23:
Barack Obama – 471,170 (+206,868 caucus votes)
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, weighted as of March 23 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 16,341,145 (+1,376,949)
Hillary Clinton – 14,964,196

With Florida only added, unweighted as of March 23 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880 (+446,046)
Hillary Clinton – 13,774,834

With Michigan only added, weighted as of March 23* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 15,764,931 (+1,343,412)
Hillary Clinton – 14,421,519
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Michigan only added, unweighted as of March 23* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666 (+412,509)
Hillary Clinton – 13,232,157
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, weighted as of March 23* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 16,341,145 (+1,048,640)
Hillary Clinton – 15,292,505
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, unweighted as of March 23* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880 (+117,737)
Hillary Clinton – 14,103,143
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 237 of 317, or 74.6% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 249 of 331, or 75.1% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 226 of 331, or 68.3% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 244 of 329, or 74.0% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 242 of 319, or 75.7% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 229 of 319, or 71.8% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 236 of 331, or 71.3% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 234 of 329, or 71.0% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 239 of 331, or 72.1% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 99 of 317, or 31.4% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 122 of 331, or 36.7% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 211 of 331, or 63.7% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 113 of 329, or 34.2% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 109 of 319, or 34.0% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 134 of 319, or 42.0% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 147 of 331, or 44.4% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 177 of 329, or 53.6% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 186 of 331, or 56.0% of remaining SDs

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 208 of 317, or 65.5% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 204 of 331, or 61.6% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 197 of 331, or 59.5% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 209 of 329, or 63.4% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 203 of 319, or 63.6% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 200 of 319, or 62.7% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 201 of 331, or 60.7% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 205 of 329, or 62.2% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 200 of 331, or 60.4% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 129 of 317, or 40.5% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 166 of 331, or 50.2% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 240 of 331, or 72.5% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 148 of 329, or 44.8% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 147 of 319, or 46.1% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 163 of 319, or 51.1% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 182 of 331, or 55.0% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 206 of 329, or 62.5% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 224 of 331, or 67.7% of remaining SDs

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FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are all the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,669.0 of 3,540.0, or 75.4%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 65.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.0%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 55.1%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.9%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 62.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 61.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.7%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 61.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.5%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 58.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.5%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 56.4%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.6%, in all remaining contests

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POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”

Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.

Pennsylvania (April 22)
Real Clear Politics average has Senator Clinton at +16.6%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

Guam (May 3)
No Poll

Indiana (May 6)
USA Election Polls shows Senator Obama with +15.0%
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html

North Carolina (May 6)
Real Clear Politics average has Senator Obama at +5.4%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

West Virginia (May 13)
Mark Blankenship Enterprises (as reported in the Charleston Daily Mail) shows Senator Clinton with +21.0%
http://www.dailymail.com/News/election08/200802260192

Kentucky (May 20)
No Poll

Oregon (May 20)
Riley Research Polls have Senator Clinton at +8.0%
http://www.rileyresearch.com/polls/2008_1_31_riley_report.pdf

Puerto Rico (June 1)
No Poll

Montana (June 3)
Mason-Dixon shows Senator Clinton with +12.0%
http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/01/02/news/state/16-polls.txt

South Dakota (June 3)
No Poll

If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!

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MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.php

(emphasis mine)

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BROKERED CONVENTION

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.

Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

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OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season.

Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/de68e7b6dfa0743217_hwm6bhyc4.pdf



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Link to the spreadsheet (feel free to download and make your own scenarios):
http://www.box.net/shared/xnx7q7hk0o

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Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

[phrigndumass]

1. Granting permission to use the info in OP here on DU and anywhere on the internet

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

[phrigndumass]

2. Link to journal to read past entries and compare stats

Go to my journal to read past entries and compare to today's totals:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

[phrigndumass]

3. Senator Obama drops below 100 SDs needed in 50/50 scenario

Just wanted to point out this tiny statistic ...

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 99 of 317, or 31.4% of remaining SDs

If the remaining state contests average out to 50/50 for both candidates, Senator Obama's remaining superdelegate needs have dropped below 100 for the first time. Senator Clinton would still be 237 short in that same scenario.

:popcorn:

[hogwyld]

4. Morning kick

Do have some concerns with the dated Indiana polls, and the most recent NC polls with Barack at only 1% which is well within the MOE. Most of the polls are before the big pastorgate brouhaha.

[phrigndumass]

5. Seems pollsters are only concentrating on PA and NC at the moment

Real Clear Politics (see link in OP poll section) is averaging the polls for these states from the last two weeks. With all the ups and downs, maybe averaging for now is the best thing to do. RCP's average for NC is Obama +5.4.

I'm concerned about the Indiana poll myself, as well as the Oregon poll. Let's hope those two polls cancel each other out for being on the "wyld" side.

Happy Easter!

:dunce:

[BumRushDaShow]

6. K&R and much thanks for your weekly effort in compiling the numbers!!!

:thumbsup:

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

9. Thanks for reading!

Happy Easter!

:dunce:

[Adelante]

7. k

:kick:

[southern_belle]

8. k

[mmonk]

10. Thanks for the work as usual.

[phrigndumass]

11. Happy Easter!

Thanks for reading.

:hi:

[Cooley Hurd]

12. Good work and thank you for your efforts!

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

16. My pleasure, thanks for reading!

:hi:

[greyghost]

13. Great work!

[phrigndumass]

17. Thanks!

Happy Easter!

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

14. Thank you for compiling all of this.

[phrigndumass]

18. Happy to do it. Thanks for reading!

And Happy Easter!

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

15. Polls coming out this week should be positive for Senator Obama ...

Since the Magic Numbers are partially based on polls in upcoming states, we could see Senator Obama's magic number drop drastically.

About those "national" polls ... I believe they really don't do us much good for the primary since 82% of the Democratic pledged delegates have already been chosen. State polls for upcoming contests will give us much more insight into the outcome for the nominee.

[phrigndumass]

19. bump for the lunch crowd ... have a great Easter!

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

22. one for the evening crowd

[LWolf]

20. I hope it is still close and undetermined when

my primary rolls around in late May. I'll vote for whomever is behind to help achieve a brokered convention.

That's the only thing left to vote for: a brokered convention that will give a different candidate that can unite the party and win in November.

[phrigndumass]

21. Good luck.

:wtf:

[Scurrilous]

23. K & R

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

24. I'm DONE with GDP, so I have a difficult choice to make now ...

If you read The Math occasionally, what do you think I should do:

- Try posting The Math (without commentary) in General Discussion? or ...

- Drop it altogether?

GDP has become (or always was) a vile cesspool filled with freepers disrupting and campaign operatives from both sides trying to out-do each other. Using Alert doesn't seem to work much.

Thanks for your considerate reply to my question.

[slick8790]

27. No! You gotta keep posting The Math.

You should stay here in GDP too. Posts like yours are the few reasons I stick around as well.

[phrigndumass]

28. Thanks, but GDP does nothing but bring me pain

I'll try to post The Math in another forum, if I can, but if that's not possible then I need to drop it. I really appreciate your reading and your reply!

I'd make a recommendation to Skinner and the great DU mods to put a moratorium on new members until the primary is over, and then weed out the freepers and operatives, but that would be undemocratic and they probably wouldn't go for that.

[phrigndumass]

31. The Math won't be allowed in General Discussion, so I'm done with it

I want to thank everyone for reading over the past month. This is the last posting of The Math.

:patriot:

[phrigndumass]

32. If anyone wants to take over, I'll be happy to send you the documents

Just send me a PM

[powergirl]

25. Thank you for doing this

I look at your posts all of the time and I have not taken the time to thank you. So, THANK YOU! :toast:

[phrigndumass]

29. Thank you for reading, powergirl

I do appreciate that others find this information useful.

:hi:

[slinkerwink]

26. kicking

[grantcart]

30. Pelosi number 211

The number of pledged delegates that Obama needs to reach 50%+1 of the pledged delegate number which would trigger those superdelegates (including Speaker Pelosi) who are interested in supporting the candidate who gets the majority of the pledged delegates.