Indiana County-level Projections based on Demographic Characteristics

[usregimechange]

Projections

As many of you know I have been analyzing upcoming primaries at the county level. I projected 40 Mississippi counties prior to the Mississippi primary, with 100% accuracy all 40 counties were won by the candidate I projected.

Pennsylvania:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5088717

Mississippi:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4994953&mesg_id=4994953

Here are my Indiana projections:







Cut-offs

A significant percentage in each demographic category was required before counties could be called for each candidate. What is considered significant is always a percentage well above the state average:

Black persons, percent: 25% or higher = Projection for Obama.
Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+: 30% or higher = Projection for Obama.
Persons 65 years old and over, percent: 15% or greater = Projection for Clinton.
White persons, percent: 98% or higher = Projection for Clinton.





Population by county



Marion county (home of Indianapolis) is the most populous county in terms of persons per square mile (2,173) and total population (865,504). Lake county (east Chicago) has the second most concentrated persons per square mile ratio (975) and second most total population (494,202). Other populated counties include:

Allen County (347,316) Major city - Fort Wayne
St. Joseph County (266,678 people) Major city - South Bend
Hamilton County (250,979) Major city - North Indianapolis suburbs
Vanderburgh County (173,356) Major city - Evansville




Education by county



The three darkest counties above are primary reasons for three Obama projections. Burgeoning Hamilton County (North Indianapolis suburbs) is the most educated and also has the fewest percentage of elderly. Roughly half of Hamilton county residents (48.9%) have a Bachelors degree or higher. Monroe County, which contains Indiana University, has th second highest concentrations of educated Indiana residents (39.6% with a Bachelors or higher) and Tippecanoe County, home of Purdue University, has 33.2% with a Bachelors or higher. Other counties such as Boone, Hendricks, Hancock, and Johnson counties are a part of "Indiana’s Knowledge Corridor" but their concentrations were not high enough to project for Obama.


Source: Purdue Center for Regional Development




African Americans by county



Oddly enough the African American percentage in the two most Black counties (Lake and Marion county) in Indiana is identical at 26.1%. These are the only two counties that met my cutoffs for what I considered significant enough to result in projections in favor of Obama. St. Joseph County has the third highest percentage in the state at 12.1%.




Elderly by county



Outside the knowledge corridor and the two African American urban centers is, well, everything else. Here is where Clinton will run up her numbers. Counties like Wabash County, which has an elderly population (>65yo) of 16.7% are also significantly Caucasian (97.4%). The rural, working class, less educated, and vastly Caucasian counties bid well for Clinton.




Conclusion

Indiana has a lot of Clinton country but if Obama can run his numbers up in the urban centers, do very well in the counties with well educated populations, and pick up a moderate percentage in battleground counties of St. Joseph, Vanderburgh, and Allen counties, he may have a chance. He has to win Marion and Lake counties by large margins unless he can improve his favor among white and less affluent citizens, which he has done before.





http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[phrigndumass]

1. This is an excellent analysis. Thanks for posting it!

Going back to it for another look now ...

:thumbsup:

[usregimechange]

2. Your welcome! I have started on NC but I want to look at Oregon too

since there is been early campaigning there...

[usregimechange]

3. Posting maps not used in the OP but that still may be of interest...

[usregimechange]

4. population Lake co

[grantcart]

5. You should charge per view to help your fund raising lol

Great job - how do you project delegate breakdowns in Pennsylvania?

The spread or difference in the polls vary wildly - unlike any other primary - huge differences.

Why is that?

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[usregimechange]

7. The Philly districts appear to be weighted a bit more than others, advantage Obama

District 2 gets the most delegates and this is "North and West Philly, part of Montgomery County" where Obama should do well. See more on this here:

http://progresspittsburgh.net/?p=394

This means that Obama could lose by a few % and still get more delegates.

[grantcart]

16. This is typical of all the states. Now here is the irony. The way that the system is

designed it really gives Obama an advantage. The more concentrated AA districts have higher delegate numbers and therefore have a built in bias. He is more likely of getting extra delegates in a 5 or 6 delegate district by winning by a landslide than Hillary would if she won 2 - three delegate districts by the same landslide.

Obama wins 6 delegate district 82% split 5-1

Clinton wins two 3 delegate districts 82% split 2-1 x 2 = 4-2

Not sure on the percents but I think that is the principle.

The irony is that no Clinton supporter cares enough about numbers to understand this bias lol

[usregimechange]

8. Lets say Obama wins district 2 in Philly by 74%, he would get 7 delegates to Hillary's 2. and...

Lets say she wins district 9 by the same percent, she would get 2 to his 1.

and

Lets say she also wins in district 10 by the same 74%, she would get 3 to Obama's 1.

and...

Lets pretend these are the only counties in PA, Clinton's two wins and Obama's one (by the same %) would net, Obama 2 delegates over Clinton in all three districts.

[grantcart]

17. I just made the same point up thread lol

[usregimechange]

10. Of course the Pledged Delegates At-Large should even things up a bit for the state winner

[grantcart]

19. so can you put it altogether and make a projection on pledged delegates?

Using somebody else's formula for Texas I was able to project the exact number for Texas 3 weeks before the election.


You should also put all of your projections onto the Obama blog for each state. They would love it.

[usregimechange]

24. Christ, now that would take a lot of work! And their are so many variables that I can't divine

[grantcart]

33. Do you have a list of the districts and how many delegates each have?

It might me easy

split all 2 delegate districts 1-1

split all 3 delegate districts 3-1 going Clinton

split all 4 delegate districts 2-2

and then just examine the districts that have 5,6 and 7 districts and divide as per your other analysis


bet you will be real close

[usregimechange]

34. Here is the list, will look at doing this...

http://progresspittsburgh.net/?p=394

[grantcart]

36. great how did you find it?

[usregimechange]

38. surfing...

[grantcart]

37. I just PM'd this guy - he seems to be an expert on PA maybe he can help

JimGinPA

[JimGinPA]

42. Someone Did A Breakdown By District A Couple Of Weeks Ago...

I thought I had bookmarked it but I can't find it.

edit; here it is

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4924604

[grantcart]

43. that is an excellent find thank you

[JimGinPA]

44. The Only Thing Is - We Won't Know The Number Of New Voters For At Least A Few Days...

So those projections are subject to change. At least 95% of the new democrats were actively recruited by the Obama volunteers.

[usregimechange]

46. Thanks for posting...

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Another good analysis! K&R

:kick:

[rug]

9. Are you saying Clinton should win Indiana as well but Obama has a chance?

[usregimechange]

12. She should because the demographics favor her but Obama can if he can draw off of her voters

If he can win the working class folks or women or whites like he has in other states but he will need to do one of these to have a chance because there simply are not enough of his base voters to make the difference unless they turn out like crazy. She has a clear advantage in IN.

[usregimechange]

13. IN has less Blacks than the national average, is less educated, demos favor her

[grantcart]

20. There is another factor that no one is tracking:

The number of people who are Clinton supporters but now want to end the campaign and are willing to vote for Obama.

One of the most unusual exit poll results of both Ohio and Texas was that a large majority of Clinton supporters thought that Obama was going to win the nomination.

[usregimechange]

27. Excellent point, and they would be correct imo

[rug]

14. Thanks for the clarification. Good stuff.

:thumbsup:

[malik flavors]

11. What's your gut feeling on how Indiana will turnout percentagewise?

[usregimechange]

18. Even though the demos favor Clinton, this is near Obama's home state and guys...

The Howey Gauge poll on a month or so ago showed Obama leading significantly. But we need a few more to know what is going on in polling.

[SoCalDem]

35. And having lived in NW Indiana for 7+ years, I can tell you that that area IS Chicago East

There is even an East Chciago, Indiana :) It's densely populated and very likely Obama country :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Great Work

But aren't you troubled that your research suggests demography is destiny and we are prisoners to our race, religion, economic status et cetera?

[usregimechange]

22. You are right and that is a major weakness in this. Not that polling doesn't have its weaknesses..

But note that I weighted the demo cut-offs to compensate for this. Blacks have went to Obama every time and so the cut-off is much lower than whites given that they have went to Obama in a number of states. Elderly votes have been consistent for Clinton so their cutoff level is fairly low.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I'm Making A Subjective Observation Not An Empirical One

It's sad that you can tell if HRC or BHO will win a primary just by looking at the census...Caucuses are trickier...


There is not one state result that has surprised me... I would be shocked if HRC didn't win PN, KY, WV, PR, and IN.

I would be equally shocked if Obama didn't win NC and OR.

I think I missed a few states...

[usregimechange]

25. Yeah, it would be sad but this, like polling, only gives us an indication...

I have projected counties, not the state. That would be much more risky. ;) These county projections I am fairly comfortable with but I would be a gambling man to try and project the state.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. What Do You Think These Demographic Trends Portend For The General

The more I look at them the more I see the need for a unity ticket... Both Obama and Clinton have built strong, durable coalitions... I don't think the loyalty of these coalititions is as transferable as some of my fellow DUers believe...

[usregimechange]

28. We will lose some and gain others but Bush and co may assist us the most in keeping many of them on

board...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Hillary Has Working Class Whites, Latinos, Females, And Older People

Barack has African Americans, youths, and affluent whites...

If they held even eighty percent of their coalitions in a unity ticket that's a plurality or majority for sure...

[usregimechange]

29. And we would lose some and gain others with either candidate...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Hillary Has Working Class Whites, Latinos, Females, And Older People

Barack has African Americans, youths, and affluent whites...

[crispini]

21. Nice work!

Thanks!

[mopinko]

30. don't forget factor I

states bordering illinois will by invaded by armies of committed volunteers starved for campaign action due to the complete lack of campaigning needed to win here.
we know him, we love him, we are coming.

[blue neen]

32. I was checking out your PA anaylsis.

Nice work!

[Zynx]

39. That ring of "old people" counties is kind of interesting.

Fascinating from a demographic perspective.

[SoCalDem]

40. Little farm communites.... the last of the family farms

[usregimechange]

41. Yep, Indiana is like an age doughnut!

[Tatiana]

45. K&R - I would also watch the counties that border IL like Vermilion

which is close to East central IL, where Obama did pretty well.