Pennsylvania political culture bodes well for Clinton

[ruggerson]

PHILADELPHIA — If there were a manual to winning statewide elections in Pennsylvania, it would include at least two observations:

First, dynasty is not a dirty word.

And second, expect to run at least one or two times before voters reward you. They like their politicians to feel as familiar as their morning cup of coffee.

In the presidential primary campaign, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton — the political equivalent of Maxwell House after years of appearing with her husband in the state — is benefiting not just from the demographics of Pennsylvania, but from its unique amber-preserved culture.

Familiarity does not breed contempt is this state, where political offices pass through generations of the same family and the old manufacturing ethos creates an insularity that forces politicians to run several times before winning.

“If you are going to introduce a brand new product, you don’t come to Pennsylvania,” said Christopher Nicholas, who managed the 2004 campaign of Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, a twice-defeated statewide candidate before his 1980 election to the Senate. “We are much more about heritage than cutting edge here.”

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[DuaneBidoux]

1. Maybe so, but the delegate count bodes "Impossible" for her.

[polichick]

2. The times they are a changin' - PA suddenly has thousands of newly registered Dem voters...

...who have had enough of machine politics.

[ClassWarrior]

3. (Shhh... Let 'em have the comfort of thinking they have it all wrapped up...)

Puede!

NGU.

[Bensthename]

5. lol.. yup.

[Bensthename]

4. One month of Obama's money and campaigning will make a difficult win for Hillary.

[AllentownJake]

10. Strategy

Listen,

Obama has 30 million in the bank and contributions still flowing in like mad. Hillary has 3 million if the recent reports from the FEC are to be trusted plus what's she raised since March 1. Running a competitive race in PA while visting NC, and IN which are friendlier to him is forcing Clinton to do the same and to be honest she doesn't have the $$ to run a 3 state race right now.

PA is also a little wierd having lived here all my life, yes when things are stable and the economy is good its status quo. When things aren't stable its different. Look to Senator Wofford who beat Dick Thornburg (a former PA governor) in 1991 in a special election.


The only recent dynasty I can think of is Casey and that's because he's pro-life and the state wanted a pro-lifer to ensure we took down that nut job santorum.

I'm not saying Obama is going to carry PA but its not going to be as far off as the polls say right now.

The other problem I think Senator Clinton has is she is relying on Rendel's army to carry the state. The problem is Rendel's army is demographically the types who lean towards Obama. She needs the rural vote and Rendel has no resources out there. He won his elections by driving up the voter turnout in the subburbs of Philly and Philly. She'll get the vote the only question is do they have the operation in the state to turnout the numbers. I don't see how she can win PA without massive turnout in the rural areas (sounds like a small vote but 80% of PA is rural).

[napi21]

6. There's another Pa. stat that wasn't mentioned. Pa. has the OLDEST

overall population of any State in the Country. I grew up there and I was even surprised at that. (I always thought it was Florida!) Older people and blue collar people seem to be supporting Hillary. I honestly can tell what's going to happen for sure. In reviewing the upcoming primary with all the friends and relative I still have in Pa. they appear to be split between the 2 candidates. I don't think the pollsters really know either, and we're all just going to have to wait and see.

[Jersey Devil]

8. Not surprising at all to anyone from the NY metro area

I am in NE NJ, which, considered along with other parts of the NY metro area such as parts of Conn, Long Island, etc., probably has the highest cost of living in the country, especially housing.

Many people from this area, because they like living here but cannot afford the high cost of housing, the highest real estate taxes in the country, etc., but want to remain close to the area, have moved to PA in retirement. Housing is much cheaper there, real estate taxes are much lower, but it is only about 1 - 1.5 hrs driving to get back to the NY metro area to visit kids, friends, etc.

[ruggerson]

9. I imagine it will be closer than some expect

but I have a feeling she might take it in double digits. No one knows for sure, since events as of yet unforeseen could be a factor.

[polichick]

11. The idea that older PA voters are going with Clinton is inaccurate...

There are hundreds of retirement-age voters on the Obama volunteer team in SE PA alone.

[napi21]

19. Sorry, I was giving a bit of credit to the pollsters & pundants who

have consistently said that "as a general statement" Barack's voters are mostly young and better educated, while Hillary's likely voters are blue collar and older. I didn't say OR MEAN that Barack doesn't have any older, or less educated, but "ON AVERAGE" the majorities in different groups lean to each candidate. I'm a perfect example of a person who voids those claims. I'm a white woman, 64 YO, lower middle imcome, and now from Ga (of all places).

[polichick]

30. I didn't mean to criticize you, but those talking heads who cling to that idea...

I think they're going to be very surprised! During the first organizational meeting here for Barack, all four at our table were voters considered (for different reasons) to be in the Clinton demographics ~ got a nice laugh out of that!

[peace13]

7. Heads up to Obama people.

Even if you don't live in Pennsylvania you can help him by volunteering online at www.barackobama.com. If you live near Pennsylvania contact the Obama folks and volunteer in the state. If you live in Pennsylvania and have an extra bed, offer it to the Obama folks. We did this when they were in Ohio and it was great to meet a new face. Last but not least, if none of this is doable send another contribution to Obama. Pennsylvania, I hope to be headed your way next week! Peace, Kim

[BlueIdaho]

12. Pennsylvania?

Too little - too late.

[Bensthename]

13. -

[Bensthename]

14. Obama must be thinking hard about putting alot of eggs in the PA baket. That would knock her out.

Especially since so many are trying to nudge her out and since PA is a "Clinton" state demographically.
If he can win PA the supers will be jumping to Obama and the media will call her dead.

[my3boyz]

17. He could try to outspend her and cause her to spend

more to protect her newest firewall. That way she would not have enough money to challenge him in states that are favorable to him. Pundits are now saying that Hillary needs to take one of the states that appears to be an Obama state. I don't want him to spend much money there though because I don't believe he will win it. He should spend just enough to make them nervous.

[slinkerwink]

18. he's said that he'll bring an Iowa-style campaign to PA

[NJSecularist]

15. Pennsylvania is the prototypical Democratic machine state in the primaries

Much like Ohio. Those two states have been that way for decades.

[Hutzpa]

16. On a hindsight

Pennsylvania has become the new Alabama,

People there are disguising racism, racism

there is more institutionalize and they're not

prepared to change there thinking of

blacks being equal to white hence the

remarks of their Governor Randell.

Pennsylvania still believe in the good ol' days

where whites are in control and blacks are the

servants.

So, when people speak of dynasty, its another

form of keeping things as they are, and that my

friends is institutionalized discrimination.

[WinkyDink]

22. Oh, shut the hell up.

And it's "Rendell".

[GoneOffShore]

24. Actually it's "Fast Eddie"

Hoping for a spot with the HRC team.

[peace13]

27. He and Strickland can be roomates! n/t

[Hutzpa]

25. oooowww

can't handle the truth, must have touch a nerve....

bwahahahaha!!!

:rofl:

[BeyondGeography]

20. Hopefully, they'll be kinder to Obama in the general

having put him through their tiresome, yet time-honored hazing ritual.

[anonymous171]

21. Well thought out analysis.

Thanks for the info! Obama's going to have to work hard there!

[TwilightGardener]

23. I have said this time and time again--PA (my home state) is stubbornly

resistant to change. They like the familiar, they are nostalgic for the past, and everyone there is either old or sports a mullet/mall hair and listens to classic rock. OK, I exaggerate, but only a little. If they had a sense of adventure and optimism, they'd have left the rust and coal belt for greener pastures. And they also sadly expect a little corruption and a lot of opacity in politics--they don't want to see how the sausage gets made, they just accept whomever the "machinery" puts forth.

[fujiyama]

26. She'll win by the same margin in OH

if not larger.

Obama has had a tough couple weeks and the Clintons are a well entrenched, well established political machine - the kind of candidate that has worked well in the rust belt states. She has the establishment in the state behind her like Rendell.

My guess is 10-12% But it still won't make a difference. She cannot close the gap with Obama in elected delegates.

[JoFerret]

28. Maxwell House?

.

[SoCalDem]

29. "culture" = "heritage"..more codespeak n/t