Take that CNN/Gallup poll of likely voters with a grain of salt

[diplomats]

A few weeks ago, I read on Ruy Teixeira's blog http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com that the CNN polls of likely voters have been surveying about 5 percent more Repukes than Dems. That would explain why Bush does as well as he does and why there's a 7-point disparity between registered voters and likely voters. In November, the Dems will likely turn out in even greater numbers than the Repukes, so any poll that samples that many more Repubs than Dems is misleading.

Plus, any president with an approval rating of 46 percent doesn't win, period.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. "CNN = Faux = MSGOP"

[PATRICK]

2. The fallacy of ALL polls

added to ANY slant equals weirdness. Add to that the evaluation of the time before election, the lack of focus on Kerry's case by the oddly effective noise of Bush troubles.

But back to the fallacy. These polls push for a decision. If they were to reflect what would happen in November on a straight trajectory with little changing(hah- whose crystal ball?) they might GUESS that Bush would lose by a good margin. Instead they play the role of primping sports reporters building up a "contest" with the champ drooping visibly.

Well, that is the small fallacy, although people clinging to Bush cling to any good news or spin these days. No, the major fallacy is that none of these polls are "scientific" and avoid telling their customers the truth about the mushiness of the results. A huge chunk of people are not willing to commit to a decision unless cajoled pushed or over interpreted.

The only polls they tout triumphantly are those that are taken practically in the voting booth. No wonder those are accurate. Picture how impressive weather reports would be if we accepted their accuracy as they looked out the window at the present moment.

So they spot trends and movements toward that real decision- the vote- which in our short short national history get more and more nebulous. Preserving their role as "scientific" seers, like any Intel op gone bad, they tell people what they want to hear, make themselves look good and "popular"(with the right people) and are susceptible to pressure, spin, whatever. Finally, they create in people the result changing opinion has more value than the actual vote. Now you are in the realm of destructive madness, the Heisenberg principle that observation changes the results.

Hindu astrologers are just as accurate for much the same reasons or better if they are fair and not imbalanced. That is not because astrology is true but because it it is not the mainstream tool for forming the political opinions of the masses. Therefore less a concern for corruption.

This is not the precise safe world of teams playing it safe on Superbowl strategy. Patterns and rules do not apply. External events are looming large and unpredictable. The choices have not been(nor will be) fairly presented to everyone. Anyone relying on these for good news are just as liable to suffer delusions as those despairing from their results.

What we do know. That most Americans are living lives of forced ignorance and hidden betrayals. They sense things but only in a fog. Anger or fear leads to make decisions. On paper, Democrats look to win despite gerrymandering and cheating, but not make a big dent in Congress(this is the real place where progress needs to be made). No one is a shoo-in as of now so you can't sleep well until November. Bill Clinton praised the American people for getting it right despite the media hunt, but the people did not get it all and punished Gore partly because of unalleviated blindness.

This is war. Media, money, one on one information. Full victory means Kerry+Congress+the truth coming out. Anything less or the useless despairing about losing is a distraction.

Instead people will post about polls, celebs and sex more than the task ahead.

[flpoljunkie]

3. Schneider himself said that Kerry leads by 6% among registered voters.

We need to get our voters out in November, and to register as many people as we can in the interim.