1. It shows he earned the nomination fair and square and that it wasn't handed to him, perhaps as an "affirmative action" type of deal where the party elders convinced Hillary to concede to him.
I think, even if she dropped out today, it will prove he earned the nomination fair and square. I do not think anyone can make a legitimate argument that the nomination has been handed to Obama. He's won the most states, has the most delegates and has the lead in the popular vote, if anyone at this time believes he stole the nomination, then they aren't going to change their views in 1, 2 or 3 months.
The problem, however, is the backlash that could come from this. It was only a month ago where most here and in the media were talking about how Democrats could get along with EITHER candidate. Let's not forget the debate prior to Super Tuesday, where it was a love fest and they nearly cuddled right there on the stage. That was the high moment of this race and it's been a downward spiral ever since. A few more months of this will only continue to create a larger divide between Clinton and Obama supporters. Can the Democrats live through this?
2. He's been raising so much money as a result of the ongoing battle, it more than makes up for the money he has to spend to continue campaigning against Hillary.
The money won't dry up and Obama probably won't go as hard at McCain this early on like he has Clinton. Plus, it could open the doors to more money coming in from people who backed Clinton prior to her dropping out.
3. He gets free press every day, a lot more than McCain's getting.
He may be getting free press, however, free press could also be negative press and if he's being beat up on every single day by both Clinton and McCain, the free press turns into bad press rather quickly. I mean, McCain probably benefited from not being as scrutinized as Obama the past week, as the major Iraqi gaffe pretty much made minimal impact within the media. Obama's problems, however, were blasted from network to network and that seed of doubt has been planted, even if I don't think it will amount to much in the end. McCain, though, gets to sit back, prod Obama every so often and allow Clinton to bloody him to the point where he could be very vulnerable in the general. Not good.
4. People in the remaining states are excited 'cause they actually get to help decide the nomination for once. This increases voter registration and probably helps him in the fall.
Of course it helps, but at what cost? Even if she drags him down the point where Obama finally wins the nomination and he's 20 points down in the polls? Then, all those voters who registered, probably won't change the outcome of the election.
5. It's extremely unlikely that there will be a convention battle. Once the last vote is counted, the superdelegates are likely to endorse en masse to prevent this from occurring. Once it's clear he has the nomination locked up, Hillary will not be able to resist the pressure to concede.
I don't think there will be a convention battle, but there doesn't really need to be to tear the party apart. If this goes to the final contest, Clinton will most likely TAKE it to the convention. The media frenzy will be a joke and even if there isn't a battle, it will be played as the Democrats being in disarray. That is not the image to project if they are going to win in the general election. The fact is, it's doubtful Obama will have the delegates needed to become the presumptive nominee once voting is over. So this will go to Denver in that scenario and from there, even if there isn't a huge battle, still creates more division and makes it that much more difficult to repair, since now we'll only have a few short months instead of all summer leading up to the convention.
6. The negative attacks - some of them aren't really coming from Hillary and they'd be coming from the proxies of McCain whether she were still in the race or not. The ones that are coming from her - what doesn't kill you makes you stronger, and besides it's better to get things aired now while there's time for them to fade.
Some of them aren't coming from Hillary, however, if Obama is the nominee, the sooner Clinton can get out there and work her butt off for him, just as I think he would do if the roles were reversed. I have faith Democrats won't lose this election because of the swing votes, but because of the party division itself. The attacks, as you said, will continue, but if Democrats are attacking Democrats, there becomes an increasing gap between Obama and Clinton supporters. The more fighting and the longer this goes, the bigger the gap will grow and by the time it's over and Obama does become the nominee, it may be as wide as the Grand Canyon and too big to repair. That will cost them the election, not some swing votes that could be lost by an attack ad from McCain that will come regardless of how long Hillary is in the race.
7. "Providing ammo" - let's be real, anything the Hillary campaign can dig up, the McCain campaign can also dig up and will dig up. Probably their die-hard supporters will do it for free and so it doesn't cost them anything either way.
Like I said, the attacks aren't going to stop when Clinton leaves, but she can begin uniting the party behind Obama. She can campaign for him, stand up for him and ask her supporters to support him. However, in the voters' minds, it's far worse when people from the same party are going after one another. If this continues to turn bloody, it will make the Democratic Party split even worse than it is right now and that will be an issue in the general election.
8. McCain getting a free ride - guess what folks, spring and summer is not when it matters. McCain can be up in the polls all he wants right now. What'll matter is down the home stretch. Let him peak early, it won't matter in October and November.
Of course polls this far out don't mean crap, but they do lay the foundation for the tone of the race. How big will McCain's lead grow, can both Clinton and Obama continue leading McCain throughout the summer? What if the fighting gets so bad in the next couple of months that McCain actually builds a fairly comfortable lead heading into the convention? That would put the nominee at a major disadvantage. Like I said above, I do not fear McCain's attacks right now because they will come regardless. But if Democrats are split between two candidates and the hatred grows, they will not win the presidency. Divided they cannot stand and that's a big possibility if this thing continues into August at the level it's at right now.
9. Party divided - see #5. Five months from June to November is plenty of time for us to come together again. It sucks that people are being alienated right now but they'll probably remember they're Democrats once they hear the crap McCain's dishing out (and the revelations that are sure to come out about McCain as well.) If the prospects of a McCain administration covering up for Bush/Cheney, continuing the war, appointing Supreme Court nominees that'll try to overturn Roe vs Wade, etc etc don't do it, then I guess our country will now have that third party some have been wishing for. Me, I don't see it happening this year.
That's IF this thing ends in June, but Obama won't have the pledged delegates at the end of June to become the presumptive nominee. That means the superdelegates will have to put him over the top and while it's possible, I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Now while I have faith the voters will eventually return to the nominee, there is a chance it does not happen, especially after reading the vile on this board from both supporters. If the hatred we see on DU and Kos and Hillary is 44 and Taylor Marsh's blog, is typical of Democrats, then the Democrats ARE in trouble. These people really hate the opposing candidate and the continued infighting only makes them hate the other candidate even more.
10. Obama just looks more and more presidential the longer he withstands negative attacks from a fellow Democrat without lowering himself to the same level.
Sadly, that isn't the only thing that wins elections. He very well could look presidential and still may not have enough sway to win over 10% of the Democratic base that would've voted for him had it not been the ugly battle between him and Clinton. That could throw the election to McCain, especially if they decide to vote for him instead.
Look, I agree that some of your points are valid, but only to the point where I do not think a long race will ruin Obama. However, I do not think it will help him, either and in fact believe if Clinton dropped out tomorrow, he would be better off than if this went to June or the convention. I just do not see that happening, though.
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