Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 49% to 39%.

[AGirl]

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 49% to 39%. That’s little changed from earlier in the month when Clinton led 51% to 38%.

In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. That’s down from 76% in the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 71%, a figure that is little changed from 72% earlier in the month.

If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, just 55% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. That’s down two points from 57%.

If Clinton is the nominee, just 55% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain. That’s down nine points from 64%.

A separate survey found that both Democrats are in a competitive race with John McCain for Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes. Nationally, McCain currently leads both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters in Pennsylvania have read, seen, or heard about comments made by Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s former Pastor. Nearly half, 47%, say it has no impact on their vote. Fifteen percent (15%) say Wright’s comments make them more likely to vote for Obama while 36% say the opposite.

Overall, 38% are somewhat or very concerned about Obama’s relationship with Wright. That figure includes 62% of Clinton supporters, 11% of Obama voters, and 36% of those who are undecided.

[Noirceuil]

1. The good people of the KeyStone State...

do not tolerate empty rhetoric or the acolytes of racist ministers. I expect Hillary to win by at least 17 points.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. How do the good people feel about lying about snipers?

[Alter Ego]

8. I'd answer you but I'm too busy dodging enemy fire!

[SoFlaJet]

10. LOL

post of the day

[AllentownJake]

14. Are you from here

If not than shut up.

[babylonsister]

3. He's narrowing the gap, and he's not even there. Excellent! nt

[SoFlaJet]

4. LIARGATE

hasn't even kicked in yet-you see the new NC numbers sis?

[babylonsister]

5. Yea, baby. 21points ahead, and he's not there either!

:rofl:

[SoCalDem]

11. She's expected to carry the state..always was expected to

The apportioned delegates could still lean his way, due to the fact that the little old farm ladies in the outlying areas cannot deliver the numbers that the city-folk will deliver to him..

of course Bill's friend Rush ginned up some support for her, so who knows?? Of course Rush's pals will stick around in November & vote for her again?? right?? right??

[AGirl]

13. little old farm ladies ? nice.

[SoCalDem]

15. 60% of her support is women over 60, isn't it?

That's what the pollsters keep saying..

Women outlive men, there are not that many hispanics in PA, so logically, her main support will be those older ladies....small farming communities are LOADED with widowed elderly women..

[AGirl]

19. u called them little.

[SoCalDem]

22. are they big?? mea culpa

I get shorter as I age, and most older ladies I know are little .. just my personal experience:hi:

[babylonsister]

25. *snort*

How dare you?! :spank: :spank:

[CreekDog]

34. the big ones are gonna hit you with their umbrellas

:spank:

[SoCalDem]

36. wouldn't that be bumbershoots or parasols?

:rofl:

[CreekDog]

40. how old can they be?

you need more of this: :spank:

[SoCalDem]

41. leeetle teeeeny wooomans

"hunerds & hunerds of 'em"..with knitting needles & big purses..marching off to vote :)

[AGirl]

45. generalizing black people are wrong, so is generalizing old women.

[Alexander]

50. So people don't shrink as they get old? What planet do you live on?

As for making generalizations, I hardly think someone who just today called Obama a "monkey" can talk about generalizing.

[babylonsister]

16. I don't expect him to win PA, but getting close would be wonderful.

I do wonder about the Rush effect.

[SoCalDem]

21. I almost wish he would talk about it, so that people understand just how important it is to go vote

with an unknown number orf Rush zombies out there f'ing up elections, it's hard to tell how much is enough..

[anamandujano]

7. He contradicts himself every time he opens his mouth. That is going

to be a huge problem for him and his apologists.

[Hieronymus]

30. He hasn't lied about being under sniper fire in Bosnia, has he.

[bluedawg12]

42. No he doesn't lie - he's too smart for that. n/t

[SoCalDem]

6. In November 07, 40% said they would NEVER EVER vote for her

so apparently she's hit her "ceiling"..and he's not even really campaigned there yet..

back then she was sitting at 48% and Obama at 15%, so she's spent a bundle, and improved ONE POINT... and' he's gone from 15% to 39%...

back then 36% of democrats said they would support her in a general election..

[anamandujano]

9. He's been doing all the spending, she is low on funds or have you

forgotten your mantra.

[SoFlaJet]

12. it's not "OUR" mantra

it's a fact-deal with it

[SoCalDem]

17. she's been spending... deficit spending

he's been running ads, but has not campaigned there in person, much..

he's waiting until it's closer to the election date..

[babylonsister]

18. So now 'in the red' is low on funds? OK. nt

[SoCalDem]

24. new math

:rofl:

[grantcart]

31. yes she is and the real problem of snipergate and judasgate is that it will dry funding up

[grantcart]

20. great news for Obama thanks

[WDIM]

23. Yeah but Hillary really needs some sleep so...

those numbers will be changing soon.

[Bensthename]

26. I predict a 20 point drop for Clinton over sniper gate...

She cant just lie about getting shot at.

[Bensthename]

27. I predict a 20 point drop for Clinton over sniper gate...

She cant just lie about getting shot at.

[JimGinPA]

28. Mrs. Clinton Will Net Less Than 10 Delegates In PA...

At best. She's finished.

[DerekJ]

29. Link please

[SoCalDem]

46. link

www.hillaryisalwaysrightevenwhensheiswrong.com

or

www.hillaryisnotaracistbutsheplaysoneontv.com

[housewolf]

32. Hmmm... a 13-point lead down to a 10-point lead in 1 week is "little change"???

Hmmm... I wonder who that reporter/paper is biased towards?

[FlyingSquirrel]

33. Drat. I can't post my own thread on this till tonight.

But lemme just say what I'm noticing in PA lately, poll-wise.

Poll ................................. Date .............. # polled ...... Clinton ..... Obama ... Undecided .. Difference
Rasmussen ..................... 3/24/2008 ...... 697 LV ........... 49 .......... 39 .......... 12 .......... 10
PPP (D) ............................. 3/15-16/08 ..... 597 LV ........... 56 .......... 30 .......... 14 .......... 26
Franklin & Marshall College .... 3/11-16/08 ..... 294 LV ........... 51 .......... 35 .......... 13 .......... 16
Quinnipiac ........................ 3/10-16/08 ..... 1304 LV ........... 53 .......... 41 ........... 6 ........... 12
Rasmussen ..................... 3/12/2008 ...... 697 LV ........... 51 .......... 38 ........... 11 .......... 13
SurveyUSA ......................... 3/8-10/08 ...... 608 LV ........... 55 .......... 36 ........... 3 ........... 19
Susquehanna ...................... 3/5-10/08 ...... 500 RV ........... 45 .......... 31 ........... 19 .......... 14
Strategic Vision (R) ............. 3/7-9/08 ......... LV ............... 56 .......... 38 ............ 6 ........... 18
ARG .................................. 3/7-8/08 ........ 600 LV .......... 52 .......... 41 ............ 6 ........... 11
Rasmussen ...................... 3/5/2008 ....... 690 LV .......... 52 .......... 37 ............ 11 .......... 15

---

I've bolded Rasmussen because it has been taken at fairly regular intervals and you can assume all three polls were done with the same methodology.

As you can see, in the last column "Difference", Obama was behind by 15 points on March 5, 13 points on March 12, and now behind by 10 points on March 24.

To me, that looks like a clear trend of about 2 points per week. If it keeps up from now till April 22, it would be approx. 45.5% Clinton, 43.5% Obama.

Giving each slightly less than half of the undecided voters, Clinton wins the state 50.5 to 48.5

If the trend continues and Rasmussen is accurate.

[grantcart]

35. So?

[FlyingSquirrel]

37. Sew buttons on shirts

To be fair, Pollster overall is showing a less steep trend



More like 0.5% per week.

So if their composite 51.5 - 38.7 is accurate and projected over the next 4 weeks with Obama gaining on her by about 0.5% per week, she wins PA 55% to 44%. Which of course is what she's probably aiming for.

So we'll just have to wait a bit longer and see if she plateaus while Obama continues to climb. Or whether the trend is really 0.5% per week or 1% per week. Big difference actually. Although it makes a bigger difference whether you use the composite of all polls vs. just a single poller like Rasmussen.

I think it's been shown that a composite gives better results. She might win 54-45, 53-46. 52-47 is probably the best Obama can really hope for in PA unless something surprising happens.

[grantcart]

44. I'll call your PA (which has fewer recent polls) and call you a NC

[FlyingSquirrel]

47. You don't seem to realize we're on the same side

My first post was essentially making the case that Obama could get within 2 points of Hillary in PA, which would probably deflate her campaign as she's hoping for a significant win there.

My second post played devil's advocate on the first, saying the best he could hope for without a major sea change would be 52-47, which still would be a lot better than the 55% Hillary has probably set her sights on.

[SoCalDem]

38. Dick?? is that YOU??

:rofl:

[Vinca]

39. Sure hope someone tells the people of Pennsylvania about

her real position on NAFTA. That's how she won Ohio.

[bluedawg12]

43. RCP today:

http://www.time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/

Based on 3-25-08 data I presume.

In Gallup's head-to-heads, McCain's lead has narrowed against both candidates to just one point:

In RCP's McCain vs. Obama average, McCain leads by 1.3 (45.9 to 44.6).

In RCP's McCain vs. Clinton average, McCain is ahead by just 0.3 (46 to 45.7).


Democratic Presidential Nomination
RCP Average
Obama46.0%Clinton43.6%Obama +2.4%

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
RCP Average
Obama (D)44.6%McCain (R)45.9%Und6.2% McCain +1.3%

General Election: McCain vs. Clinton
RCP Average
Clinton (D)45.7%McCain (R)46.0%Und6.2% McCain +0.3%

[Life Long Dem]

48. That's not bad at all. Actually if that many are sayng that now

It will only increase by Nov.

[Khaotic]

49. She'll win, but ...

all Obama really needs to do is get 60+ delegates out of the state.

He would like more, but if he gets 60 then that will be good. Another step on his way to 50+1. :-)

That's not to say that he doesn't think as highly of Penn. residents as he does of any other state.

Obama loves Penn.