Obama in NC vs. VA

[carolinayellowdog]

Hey,

I was happy to vote for Obama and delighted to see Virginia (where I live and vote despite the username) favor him so overwhelmingly. My neighborhood was 62/38 in his favor, better than Webb did against Allen here. The much-abused Southern White Male also went 62/38 for Obama in Virginia, according to a post-primary analysis I read, which brought the overall white vote into Obama's column here despite the female advantage for Clinton. Mississippi white males voted only 25% for Obama, but I think NC is a lot more like VA than like MS and he just might win there. Today's poll results are the first strong sign of that possibility AFAIK.

One can analyze the Virginia results by all kinds of metrics, but since our primary I've been less hopeful for Obama because white males in supposedly less racist states like Ohio and Pennsylvania are tilting so decisively towards Clinton. At first it seemed like we were the harbinger of victory for Obama, just as we were with Webb and control of the Senate in 2006. Now the Clinton folk would have it that Virginia has too many latte-drinking Volvo drivers in NoVA and too many African-Americans down here in Southside, so we have no national significance whatsoever. But I'm quite convinced that Barack can carry this state and Hillary can't, which recent polls support.

It seems to me that our neighbor to the south is the best measure of whether or not our Virginia results were an outlier or a decisive turning point. Would like to know what North Carolinians or anyone else who follows Southern politics thinks about how your primary results might differ from or parallel ours, and why. How do you think NC's chance of going D in the general is compared to Virginia's? So far all indications I've seen are discouraging.

CYD

[littlebit]

His chances in the GE here in NC

are slim to none.

[woolldog]

6. Recent polls suggest otherwise (nt)

[my3boyz]

1. Ohio and PA less racist states? I don't think so....

In fact those two states would be near the top of my list.

[woolldog]

2. Ohio and PA aren't less racist than VA

Average income in VA is actually higher. Whites are better educated. Blue-collar, not so educated whites are more likely to be racist, ime.

Also I'm hesitant to attribute Obama's troubles with white blue-collar Dems entirely (or even majorly) on racism. I think his message just doesn't connect well with that demo. It's a little too high minded for them and not beefy, plain spoken enough.

[anamandujano]

3. His message might be a little too hokey and vague.

But it is par for the course to blame any of Obama's trouble with the electorate on race. (I know you didn't but most of his supporters and he himself does that.)

[carolinayellowdog]

8. Agreed-- but they are supposedly so (in some quarters)

I've lived in Ohio and Michigan and found racist language far more common and tolerated there than where I've lived in the South. Both Virginia and North Carolina compare favorably to most other states in levels of residential and educational segregation; the worst tend to be in states bordering the Great Lakes. Virginia elected the only African American governor of the twentieth century. Yet both NC and VA have been horribly faithful to the Republicans in presidential elections. Perhaps the working class whites with racist attitudes in Virginia are almost entirely Republicans, whereas in Ohio and Pennsylvania they include more Democrats.

[loveangelc]

4. There are less African Americans in Virginia than North Carolina, so on that, NC

looks good for him. Also, I heard NC has more upper income and better educated whites than other Southern states so that may work in his favor as well......

[anamandujano]

5. The "better educated" don't like to be preached at either.

They also don't like being kicked in the @ss after reaching out to blacks.

[loveangelc]

7. apparently the "better educated" don't like Hillary either. :-)