Obama to lose 28% if Clinton gets it, and Clinton loose 19% if Obama gets it

[nadinbrzezinski]

and that poll does not include those who will simply seat out the election.

Defend this folks... and tell me the Party and its chances of getting the WH are not in jeopardy.

It is time

And I have said it before... I don't care which one of these two primadonas. They have BOTH damaged the party

Last candidate to win after a brokered convention was FDR in 1932, chew on that.

[Bonobo]

1. I simply don't believe it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. Is this cognitive dissonance, or is this all who are paying attention

and haven't taken sides, realize the damage this is doing

By the way... FDR WAS the last one to win an election after a brokered convention. Did I mention there was 1929 in the middle?

[Bicoastal]

44. Look, this is March, and we're talking about an election in November...

...with one side having not picked a nominee yet. How can we infer anything reliable about a contest 8 months away?

8 months earlier, the media was betting Hillary would fight a losing battle to Giuliana of all people. Obama and McCain were barely being mentioned as possible contenders.

Be patient and stop looking at 8-months-from-now polls. You'll feel a lot better about life.

[nadinbrzezinski]

56. Mostly that pesky thing called history

and the damage folks are now seeing.

The poll was a reflection of the crap we've seen here anecdotally.

And let me repeat this again, IF THIS GETS TO A BROKERED CONVENTION, the last candidate from EITHER party to win that was FDR

And this poll is showing what you are seeing in GD=P

If this is solved in four weeks tops, we have time to run a campaign and stop this bickering and for people's bruised egos to heal. And the sooner, the better

[dailykoff]

93. Clintonomic history, which is never quite accurate.

By any definition, 1960 was a disputed convention, whether or not Penn or somebody is calling it "brokered."

[nadinbrzezinski]

104. You think I am a Clinton Supporter... WRONG... and I assure you my Poli Sci Instructor in 1984

WAS NOT a Clinton supporter.

yes 1960 was disputed, but DID NOT fall under the brokered definition.

So let me repeat this, by your logic my poli sci instructor was working for the Clintons back in 1984... and the Clintons were not even a glimmer in anybody's imagination, beyond Arkansas.

What is true is that until 2000 that was the CLOSEST election in US History.

Some of them old folk even whisper it was stolen (to be fair tricky dick didn't contest it since his exposure of the mess in Chicago was surely going to expose his games in California)

So try that with somebody who gives a shit about your partisan accusations, ok

[dailykoff]

107. So call for the "looser" to get out. (n/t)

[nadinbrzezinski]

110. The difference between you and me is that I don't care which one bows out

got it now?

It is the country I am thinking about

[dailykoff]

111. Oh bull. If you weren't biased you wouldn't pretend she hasn't lost. (n/t)

[nadinbrzezinski]

116. Here are your rose colored glasses and your reality

If you choose to believe that, fine... there is nothing I can say or do... to convince you otherwise

I am talking of the country and her future, you are talking of a candidate

By the way... since MY CANDIDATE bowed out, I don't like either of the two... since I don't agree with either of them at POLICY levels. Perhaps that is too complex to understand... or the fact that my poli sci instructor was a clintonista... in 1984, who knew?

Now Democrats will still be BETTER for my pocketbook, why I truly don't give a shit who comes on top at this point, but the damage BOTH are doing is real

[dailykoff]

119. No , the damage ONE is doing is real, and the rest is crap. (n/t)

[nadinbrzezinski]

121. Once again you choose to use your candidate glasses

not the long term, how this can affect the nation

I can live with that.

By the way it is BOTH... and their base and very rabid partisans

Here, care to use a mirror?

After all you need two for a fight

[marshall]

46. And a few months ago we thought Hillary had a cake walk to the nomination

Nobody can tell what will happen between now and election day.

[nadinbrzezinski]

120. What I can tell is that RIGHT NOW the party is becoming rather divided

and that is not good

[marshall]

147. Hillary is going to take it to the convention no matter what

She has made it clear she is going to scrap for every single delegate. She is going to defy the party about Florida and Michigan.

[papau]

59. the anger of the Hillary supporters is very real - they may well vote for Obama in GE but they say

they won't and indeed about a quarter (of the folks I know) say they will vote against Obama by voting for McCain.

Per actual polls - it is 20% of the Clinton supporters that will never vote for Obama after his lies, smears and his pulling the race card so as to change the subject from Hillary's win in NH (like it is logical for the Clinton's to decide to dis the 57% of the SC vote that is black - but that is what Obama - and the media - sold - and many Clinton supporters are pissed about the smears).

[nadinbrzezinski]

67. It goes both ways

and that is the point.

Its not only the Clinton or the Obama, it is BOTH

Supreme Court...

Chew on that

By the way... I don't like either... I am still holding my nose in November and voting for whoever is coming out from this.

Why? They are better for my family's bottom line... not by much, but they are better, so I am voting my economic interest

[Bonobo]

102. Here's the truth

Despite what some Hillary supporters on DU claim, generally Clinton supporters will be overjoyed to vote for Obama, while the new voters that have become energized by virtue of Obama's unprecedented campaign are not likely to go out of their way to vote for Hillary after the Clinton campaign has played the race card as far as they have.

[nadinbrzezinski]

108. Only if this is put to bed SOON

the longer this goes, the longer hard feelings will have to set in

That is the fear

Now from a poli sci perspective if lets say 15% of voters cross party lines (regardless of who is the nominee), you will have another 20% perhaps of a new coalition.

I am truly looking at this as an exercise and I know poli sci folks will have fun with this election in years to come. I am not looking at this as Obama\Hillary, but USSC, and the fate of the country

[Beacool]

135. Overjoyed???

Please show me that poll, it goes against every poll I've seen so far, including internals.

[Bonobo]

136. Gut feeling. Sue me.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

90. the OP would be correct IF Hillary keeps dragging this out to August

otherwise, its just a bunch of conjecture and bullshit.

[nadinbrzezinski]

105. And I am hoping party elders put an end to this, the sooner the better

for the well being of the party... and the country

[knight_of_the_star]

101. HABEEB IT!!!

[MadBadger]

2. NBC poll says they both bleed 20%, and yet that poll has Obama up 2 on McCain.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. I know listening to the Obermman rerun right now

fell asleep in the middle of the previous run....

I am still in shock because my instincts have told me this is doing damage. Well as they say, proof is in the pudding. It is doing damage

This needs to stop

[MadBadger]

10. I think those numbers depend on how enthusiastically the losing candidate endorses the other

I think after we have a nominee, a certain number of those people will come home.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Agreed, and if this is solved in the next two weeks they will have time to come home

my point is, if this gets to a brokered convention... our chances of winning are not good

[Nedsdag]

4. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!

LEARN HOW TO SPELL "LOSE!" IT'S L-O-S-E.

LOSE!!!!!!

[patrice]

17. I have trouble with that one too. I ALWAYS have to stop and remember. nt

[The Ghost]

33. THANK YOU!

This has turned into one of my biggest pet peeves! Im seen this SIMPLE word misspelled even in news wires! UGHHHHHHHH!

[anonymous171]

5. It's the heat of a primary.

[peoli]

6. zabadabadabadabadaba

[featherman]

8. Nonsense poll... meaningless

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. So is the Datum about FDR?

LAST PRESIDENT, either Republican OR Democrat to come out of a brokered convention and win.

Go crack a history book open

[featherman]

38. Do you even know what a brokered convention is?

For reasons you cannot know I do find it infinitely amusing that some random poster is suggesting that I need a refresher on American political history. Truly amazing. And from someone who seems to have confused the term "brokered convention" with something else.

[nadinbrzezinski]

42. Yes I do... look there are many reasons why I tend not to post in

GD-P, one of them is the incredible level of denial ON BOTH SIDES of the damage being done

As to the refresher. go crack a book. I'm serious.

And before you mention it the METHOD to primaries and conventions HAVE CHANGED from FDR a couple times over.

BUT THE FACT HAVE NOT... if we get there... I fear we already lost... the HISTORICAL record is clearly there to be seen

[featherman]

54. Look stop telling me to crack a book, please. At least look a my

profile before assuming I am a uneducated idiot. I am literally on my way to the California Democratic State Convention this Friday in San Jose where I am an elected delegate. This is not my first political convention.

I understand your concern over the poll but don't take it too seriously. If true and it comes to pass then about 14% of Dems (1/2 OF THE 28%) will vote for McCain in November, about the same as voted for Bush in 2000. This is not unusual. More Dems tend to vote GOP than vice versa (about 8%).

It's easy at this point for fervent supporters to give fervent answers at such a heated time of the campaign.

By the way, a candidate selection by ballot is the norm in a convention. As it now stands Obama will win the nomination comfortably on the first ballot if it goes on until August. That is NOT a brokered convention. That is a normal and standard first ballot win, the most prosaic of convention outcomes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

60. Congratulations and have fun

perhaps we should compare credentials

Masters in History, Mexican for Major, US and European for Minors

In my undergrad I did also do a MINOR in Poli Sci... and yes US Government and Comparative Government were my faves.

Now yes, PARTISANS, perhaps you should re-read the OP... are having a problem of head stuck in sand

But... here is where the poll matters

Have you come across any (insert candidate here gets the nom) I will not vote, stay home or cross? I have.

Now what we saw as purely ANECDOTAL we saw as a real possibility

And yes I will wait with baited breath for the next few polls and the pesky TREND

And no this is not my first primary either, but not even 2004 was this bad... in fact, Political Scientists will have LOTS of fun with this one... we have not seen anything like this since oh Ford ran and managed to get the nomination and go on to loose to Carter. Or the 1996 Republican Primary which I will again remind you, they lost.

Yes, call me worried... even worried nillie if you want, but the last to get its candidate does not do well... and the true enemy are brokered conventions

If we get this solved in the next two weeks. we have time... to both defy history and unify YOUR party under the candidate.

Yes, since you are a delegate, after a couple certain votes in the House and Senate, I did what many californians have done... I went from Dem to Indie. But I intend to vote for whoever is the final nominee, even if I disagree with BOTH on policy issues... but they are still better for my pocket book.

But as a historian... I see the pattern and it worries me.

[featherman]

97. Thanks but again this is not a "brokered convention". I give you 1960

for your best example. Two powerhouse candidates in Kennedy and Johnson. Two convention strategies. Here is an article about some of this. As we know, the fight went to the convention floor where Kennedy won the nomination in a dramatic first ballot vote.

"All of Johnson's hopes of closing that gap and winning the nomination rested on a faith that characterized his whole approach to the belated race: much of the delegate support for Kennedy sprang not from any real belief in Kennedy as the best possible candidate, but from politicians' normal desire to get with the winner in time to earn rewards or at least avoid punishments. Once the convention saw that Kennedy was not going to run away with the nomination on the first or second ballot, his support would start melting away, and the convention would then turn to Lyndon Johnson as the best qualified candidate—so ran Johnson's hopes."

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,869574-5,00.html

[nadinbrzezinski]

112. Can you think worst case scenario?

Also the rules in 1960 were very different and primaries were truly beauty peagants, and we both know it

The rules changed due to 1968 (talk of a truly worst case scenario) and 1972

And 1960 does NOT fit the definition of brokered, came close but it wasn't

You also know how close the GE was, don't you?

[featherman]

129. Yes, I was in high school in 1960 and involved in the campaign in Baltimore

I brought up 1960 precisely because it was NOT a brokered convention but a "first ballot win" convention as most are and as 2008 will be. There can be no other mathematical outcome between only two candidates. Nothing "brokered" about it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

132. Well lets hope for the best, but I do believe party elders are starting

to get chills, that poll gave me chills

[patrice]

69. I do think people will say anything at this point, whether they follow through

or not is another question, but they do think it is to their advantage to talk tough at this point. . . WRONG.

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. The problem is that the longer this goes on, those talk tough attitudes

harden... and they become a self made reality

This is why this has to be brought to a conclusion ASAP\

That way you give folks time to vent their rage and come home

[patrice]

103. Been there. Didn't do that. I learned from my 2year old daughter what you're talking

about. There ARE definitely some people who will cut their own nose off (and more) to spite your face.

I learned to respect my daughter early. She's in her mid-thirties now and has her own quite successful business.

Solidarity nadinbrzezinski!

[Thrill]

9. My Republican friend has been saying since January

That he wasn't worried. Because he knows Democrats won't stick together. He looks right

[Hippo_Tron]

11. They will have time to unify the party after the other candidate drops out

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. If this goes all the way to August?

Let me see... September, October, first week of November?

Don't think so

The window is actually closing for that to happen

[Hippo_Tron]

36. That is why the superdelegates will end it in June

June, July, and August to unite the party. September and October to campaign to the rest of the country. Most people don't start paying attention until September anyway.

[VolcanoJen]

12. It's freaking MARCH.

Look, after the conventions, and the predictable "bumps" in the polls that the candidates give after their nomination speeches, we'll be back on even turf.

One look at McSame and the dirty campaign the 527's will run to insure a Third Bush Term and 100 More Years of War and I have a feeling Democrats will realize that they don't want to spend the most important election of our lifetimes on the sidelines.

We'll get together. Just not right now. And anyone among us who, after the nominee is chosen, advocates voting for McCain, will deserve the worse-than-Nader wrath that is forthcoming.

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. We are talking august and BROKERED convention and that pesky thing called History

That is what I am trying to point out here.. .

[VolcanoJen]

35. The only reason it would get that far is if Clinton misses her "EXIT" cue.

History is indeed pesky... but Hillary is a brilliant woman, and she's not going to risk her Senate seat and entire political reputation on a brokered no-chance convention.

This kind of stuff is "fun" to talk about in March, but it won't come to pass. I actually do trust her to do the right thing, long before August.

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. I hope you are right

but this is NOT fun to talk about... in reality... just thinking about it ... President McCain... four more wars... gives me a tummy ache

[VolcanoJen]

51. "President McCain" makes my heart hurt.

It's not fun, you're right. But I envision us all getting our shit together. And realizing this is about the future of our nation, which we love so dear.

If there's a bright side, this prolonged Primary season is helping our candidates sharpen their claws. And ours, as well!!! We're gonna be tight in the fall. That's my fervent hope.

[kid a]

14. Those numbers are for the bizarrrrrio world - if you believe them, i've got some land...

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. I've got some hard facts for you, repeat after me... the last President to

win the Presidency FROM EITHER PARTY after a brokered convention was 1932

It is time to put this one to bed

Will EITHER of the Primadonas take one fer the country? I doubt it, but that is what is at stake

[kid a]

113. You have hard facts predated to Nov 2008?? Wow, lets go to the track!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

118. Yeah I know, its called history

they do teach at times still

Who knew...

[patrice]

15. Am I the only one to whom this looks like Blackmail?!! coming out at the same time as

these recent things that were said about how pledged delegates can vote for anyone and superdelegates don't have to pay any attention to the popular vote.

:grr:

[TahitiNut]

39. It's extortion ... the corporatist protection racket.

It's the ENTIRE strategy behind the unrelenting march to the RIGHT in US politics for the last 25-30 years.

[nadinbrzezinski]

And it will get worst before it gets better

and tahiti lets call this what we should, the unrelenting march to corporatism... what did El Duce used to call it ... oh never mind

[patrice]

65. Damn I'm dumb sometimes! Of course, I meant Extortion.

:hi:

[msallied]

18. This poll is stupid.

The fact of the matter is that, by and large, Democrats will vote for the Democratic nominee in November. Once this whole primary debacle is done with, both candidates will buckle down and focus on each other, and the media will follow suit, leading people by their noses to the "next big thing."

All a poll like this accomplishes is the dragging out of the current divisive bullshit.

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. Actually the poll is a picture of a moment in time, so this bs poll tells you that

RIGHT NOW there is actual division

[msallied]

41. True. And by telling people there is actually division

the division will continue.

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. Or, I can dream, they will pressure the kids to finally

be adults about it and stop this civil war

That is my particular spin to this... and I hope they grow up... all of them

[msallied]

61. I think that is a spin I can believe in! :)

[Quixote1818]

21. People say that but then head to head they are right there with McCain

It's a way to try to make the other candidate look weaker in the General so their candidate can win.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. I'm not convinced they polled ONLY partisans

I am one not to trust fully polls but this one also agrees with the anecdotal we have seen of (insert candidate here) is the nominee I cannot vote for we have seen here

[tammywammy]

22. A lot can change between now and November

The sooner this primary is wrapped up, the sooner the party can heal and rally for November.

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. THAT IS THE EXACT POINT that observers are now making

[tammywammy]

40. But I don't think it'll get as far as a brokered convention

I think that option would be the worst. It would put the dems at a big disadvantage against McCain and the republicans, not only in the PR front, but also the financial front.

I think it'll be over, hopefully, soon after PA.

[nadinbrzezinski]

50. As I said up-thread I hope you are right

but these numbers sent chills down my back. This is why this needs to stop...

If it doesn't and we do reach a brokered scenario... we can kiss the WH good bye

Or we will have the first presnit elected after that debacle since FDR... talk about a double helping of history

[patrice]

75. The sooner all of us can take what we've learned and turn it on McSame! nt

[mmonk]

24. I wouldn't put much stock into that.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. I'll put stock into the history of brokered conventions and the fact that the last

President elected after one from EITHER party was FDR.

I think people need to think about that one... It is time to wrap this up

[mmonk]

95. I do agree it's time to wrap it up.

The threats and so forth from surrogates and such is ridiculous. I just hope there is a plan.

[samdogmom]

25. Ummm...where did you get these numbers?

and, if you want to be taken seriously you'll learn how to spell "lose"....unless you really mean loose????

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. MSNBC, their current today poll, and that is a cute spell flame

so if you misspell a world you cannot be taken seriously?

Gee, I used to see them spell flames in usenet boards when people didn't have a valid argument.

[gateley]

27. I'm going to post this every single day - multiple times:

snip

"That's the only thing that could make John McCain president ... if the Democrats get divided," Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said Wednesday.

snip

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/26/dems.switch.poll...

[housewolf]

28. Statements like that really don't carry a lot of weight at this point

We're still about 7.5 months away from the GE.

During a primary season, the "enemy" is the opponent from the same party. When you strongly support one candidate over the other, and you think your candidate is going to lose to the other, it's real easy to think that you won't vote for that person and that you'd rather vote for someone else.

It the GE season, the "enemy" becomes the candidate from the other party. I believe that when people think about the repercussions of a McCain presidency re: the war, Iran, health care and the supreme court, many/most will reconsider their emotional decisions to vote for McCain over Obama. Not all will, but many-to-most will.

That's what I think, anyway.

[muntrv]

30. Polls are not always reliable.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. Have you seen the posts here on DU of insert candidate here, is the nominee I can't vote for them

When they were posted here, ok anecdote, when you have polls you have to go... hmmm... this is getting serious

[muntrv]

58. These same polls also said 3 months ago that Hillary would be the nominee

by Valentines Day.

[nadinbrzezinski]

63. Try to read this board with an open mind

and look for the ever so popular if (insert candidate here) is the nominee I am taking my marbles and going home

They do reflect the CURRENT and very ugly reality

[muntrv]

72. The poll also does not factor independent votes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

74. You mean like oh Mine... by definition

[muntrv]

80. Bottom line: I don't place stock in polls, so why should I take this one

more seriously than others? Polls turn out to be wrong all the time.

[nadinbrzezinski]

82. It only got my attention after I kept seeing the number of

posts about taking marbles and going home

And it is quite the cold water in the face

But do you think the party will benefit if this goes on?

Be honest, do you?

By the way, I trust history... and the record ain't good

[muntrv]

86. Again, in January, I saw millions of posts here saying that Hillary was going to be the

nominee by Valentine's Day and look how that turned out. YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN!!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

91. I know what has historically happened

better than polls

:-)

And do you really want to take that risk?

Can we afford another four years of an R in government?

Think USSC

[DangerousRhythm]

43. I'm for Obama...

...and Hillary has REALLY turned me off in the past few weeks but guess what? When push comes to shove, I have to step back and say okay, do we really want to lose the Supreme Court for a generation or longer? Over bruised egos during a primary? Seriously?

People better get it together and damn fast. This is bigger than the presidency alone. Wake the hell up, people.

[goletian]

47. what has obama done to damage the party? n/t

[John Q. Citizen]

49. The Dems won't let this go to the convention. They sure don't want that. As far as the damage

goes, the only real damage to the party has been Hillary's repeatedly endorsing McCain over front runner Obama, and Hill's foreys into race baiting.

Everything else is tame in comparison. They can call each other poopy-heads all they want.

Look for the supers to keep migrating to Obama (in the last month Obama has gotten 60+ endosements and Hills got less than 5.)

Look for enough SD's to migrate so that Obama wins (goes over the top) the magic number in the MT and SD primaries. Then he can say he was elected by the voters and the voters put him over the top.

This could also happen sooner, say after PA in time for NC and OR. But either way, the Dems are not going to let this go to the convention, according to public statements by Pelosi, Reid, and Dean.

What you see is already apparent to party leaders including most of the super delegates.

[onenote]

52. what this poll doesn't discuss: where the independent voters end up

Other polls have shown clearly that Obama defeats McCain among independent voters while Clinton loses to McCain among independents. It is likely that a signficant percentage of the Democrats currently stating that they'd vote for McCain rather than Obama (or vice versa) probably will end up supporting the party's nominee notwithstanding what they say now, while there is little reason to think that independents, who have no party loyalty issues with which to contend, probably will stick to their current positions (althoug, obviously, we're a long way from the election and anything and everything can change).

But the fact is that the difference in support among independents offsets Obama's supposed Democratic defection "problem".

[dchill]

53. Not gonna happen.

Either way.

[SoCalDem]

55. There are lots of people who have not even registered to vote yet

and there's plenty of time until Nov.. McCain's so yesterday..he's not gonna win..

We'll just have to get some "new" ones to make up for the ones who bailed :)

[nadinbrzezinski]

64. Many of those who have not registered will not register

but you do have a slight point

[dailykoff]

57. WRONG. JFK was nominated by a fiercely contested convention in 1960.

Eleanor R and the old-timers backed Adlai Stevenson. It was pretty ugly.

[nadinbrzezinski]

62. How close was the GE? Oh yes, I do know some old timers

that remember the electoral shenanigans. The Republicans also took their time to nominate tricky dickie

And the only reason some historians have pointed as to why nobody challenged anything was that would have led to the discovery of each other's dirty poo...

By the way, I wasn't alive at the time either

[dailykoff]

66. If you're saying it's time for the Clintons to hang it up, I fully agree.

though I think Obama will win even if they refuse to. But I'm not sure that's your point, apologies if it isn't.

[nadinbrzezinski]

70. Either of them, for the good of the party

I'm not too choosy about it.

But for the good of the country is for one of them to emerge as the winner... and stop this virtual civil war

See... I truly have no horse in this race and I can find fault with BOTH sides

:-)

[dailykoff]

71. Okay I'm on board, but I think there's a pretty clear front runner.

And I just checked and it turns out JFK was nominated on the first ballot, even though he had two strong challengers going in (LBJ and Stevenson), and I imagine that will be the outcome this year too if Hillary refuses to go away. :)

The 1960 Democratic National Convention was held in Los Angeles. In the week before the convention opened, Kennedy received two new challengers when Lyndon B. Johnson, the powerful Senate Majority Leader from Texas, and Adlai Stevenson II, the party's nominee in 1952 and 1956, announced their candidacies. However, neither Johnson nor Stevenson was a match for the talented and highly efficient Kennedy campaign team led by Robert Kennedy. Johnson challenged Kennedy to a televised debate before a joint meeting of the Texas and Massachusetts delegations; Kennedy accepted. Most observers felt that Kennedy won the debate, and Johnson was not able to expand his delegate support beyond the South. Stevenson was popular among many liberal delegates, especially in California, but his two landslide defeats in 1952 and 1956 led party leaders to search for a "fresh face" who had a better chance of winning. Kennedy won the nomination on the first ballot.

link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1960

[nadinbrzezinski]

79. yes but by the definition of a brokered it wasn't

and 1960 was the ugliest election until 2000, and the closest

We don't need to run this risk

And yes there is a front runner right now, and statistically the other one cannot catch up...

Just pointing out that this needs to end, and I think party elders are noticing this

[dailykoff]

83. Even if Hillary is still buzzing around, he'll win on the first ballot.

So it won't be "brokered" in any real sense anyway.

[nadinbrzezinski]

87. Yeah but we might find ourselves in the midst of another messy

election. This is what we need to avoid... my humble opinion of course, and the sooner the better

:-)

That is the point.

[dailykoff]

89. Fine, so call for the loser to get out now. (n/t)

[nadinbrzezinski]

123. You are stubborn, I am calling for EITHER of them to bow out for the good of the country

you are the one blinded by partisanship

And there is nothing I can do about it, or hope to have a conversation, so have a good day... life, whatever

[KittyWampus]

68. Prima Donas? Your ignorance is telling. Why not educate yourself instead of pretending?

There is ONE candidate who built grass roots organizations and worked their ass off in all 50 states.

ONE.

How fucking DARE you call Obama a prima dona.

[nadinbrzezinski]

73. My god... so you have no problem with this mess

and yes BOTH candidates are prima donnas... ANYBODY running at that level has to be... comes with the damn territory


... and your partisanship is showing

Now chew on this, IF WE LOOSE THE WH come November because of this party civil war, who will get to appoint judges to the USSC?

Good,

[Cha]

77. NO, that's your opinion and mine is that Obama

is not a "prima donna".

[nadinbrzezinski]

81. I'm using the term as is used to describe many a presidential candidate

and yes, our definition are not the same....

That is obvious

I also don't have a horse in this race, if you read the OP I don't care who comes on top at this point, as long as this stops and we can get on with the business of electing a president.

[patrice]

88. Now what was that someone was saying just this evening about not being

distracted from the issues by the little stuff (such as someone referring to BOTH candidates as prima donnas)? Isn't it disrespectful to ignore what Obama is trying to tell ALL of us?

[cooolandrew]

78. Obama has proved stats wrong time and time again. Also has huge voter enrolement capacity.

[Johnny__Motown]

84. Clinton People Can't Do Math And Should Not Try

First off, that number won't hold. They are just hurt and angry because they are holding onto the slim hope beyond hope that she can still win. They think that this bitterness helps her. It doesn't.


ALso, because more people vote for Obama his 19% is not the same as 19% of Hillary's supporters. I am not gonna do the math (because you won't understand) But it should be more like 21-22 %.

Add in the number of young voters who Obama has drawn into the process and are not considered likely voters by pollsters and these numbers change again.


Basically my point is that this is a bull shit poll this far out, talk to me again after Labor Day.

[dailykoff]

85. Sounds like typical Clinton spin.

Scratch the surface and you find another lie.

[patrice]

92. Please Stop it. You are hurting Obama. nt

[dailykoff]

96. The truth hurts sometimes, yes. (n/t)

[patrice]

106. Yes, but it is sick to hurt yourself. nt

[dailykoff]

109. Make up your mind. :)

I know you mean well, but the fact is this is just a Clinton talking point disguised as a "concern" post, which I find really annoying, sorry. :)

[patrice]

114. I am not a Clinton supporter. See what you're doing to yourself?

Apparently, everyone who disagrees is the enemy.

[dailykoff]

115. You're not reading very carefully if you think I said you were. (n/t)

[patrice]

122. Right. Time for bed.

Night . . .

:hi:

[dailykoff]

124. That it is.

Night! :hi:

[nadinbrzezinski]

94. So do you want a brokered convention? I know I don't

mostly that pesky thing called history.

And by the way... thanks for calling me a Hillary Partisan

What part of truly I don't care who comes on top with the nom are you missing?

I have NO HORSE in this race... beyond I need the DEM to take the White House, because of the USSC and a couple other issues

So try your political spin about math with somebody else who actually gives a shit about the race at the PARTISAN level. I give a shit about the country.

[dailykoff]

99. Potted Penn "history" has nothing to do with this race,

but thanks for the Clinton spin.

[nadinbrzezinski]

125. WOW... my POLI SCI instructor in 1984 was a Clintonista and didn't even know it

WOW!

You keep trying to hang that partisan hat on me, and quite honestly firming why I don't like PARTISANS for EITHER candidate

By the way will hold nose with clothespin engraved with the logos of all media outltest in November...

[patrice]

98. You damage very valid points by insulting others. Please stop it.

Such behavior hurts the candidacy you support and poisons the environment in which "we" MUST work together after the GE.

[dailykoff]

100. It's not a a valid point, it's a talking point. (n/t)

[nadinbrzezinski]

126. What is a talking point that this civil war can hurt OUR CHANCES TO GET TO THE WH

in the General Election and that BOTH candidates are doing it?

I forgot, my poli sci instructor in 1984 no less, was a Clintonista, who knew?

[zalinda]

117. Wow, you guys still don't get it

Do you honestly think that the crap that has been flung here in DU, was only here? This has been like a virus all across the country. And, here's the kicker, people who say they won't vote for the other guy, just might stay home and not vote. Why? Because for most Americans, it doesn't matter who gets in, they are screwed no matter what. Why vote? Nothing changes. People kicked ass in 2006 to get dems in power so that something would get done. Nothing got done. We are still at war, and still funding it. The cost of gas rose, the cost of food rose and paychecks stayed the same or in some cases disappeared.

You have 2 dem egos battling it out. Absolutely nothing has been said about issues or policies for months. So, it's like, who cares. The dems obviously don't. And, McCain has been getting a free ride in the press and seems like a reasonable guy. So, why vote? Add, to that, that their vote doesn't get counted anyway, so why bother.

This has been a stunningly awful primary. Most candidates got shot down after Iowa because Obama and Clinton (the big corporate candidates) just outspent them. So 98% of the country could not vote for their candidate, and had to settle for leftovers. And, maybe, just maybe, people are getting really tired of having to swallow leftovers, especially when they contain so much bile.

For an election that was supposed to be a walk in the park, welcome to the twin tornadoes.

zalinda

[nadinbrzezinski]

127. No they don't get it

why I posted the poll, a picture of things as they stand RIGHT NOW

[Neshanic]

130. Great post.

[jzodda]

128. This is going to convention so I would get used to it

The small number of remaining contests left will not settle this. I don't see any circumstances where either will drop out at this point unless one of the them wins all the contests left by a huge margin. So it will be left to the supers on the floor of the convention to decide this one way or the other by vote and on the FIRST ballot. Technically thats not a brokered convention though and the rules have been changed since the 1980 primary fight to really almost prevent a second ballot. A classic brokered convention is choosing a nominee by "backroom dealings" and other such extraordinary means AFTER the first ballot. Brokered conventions could even put out a nominee that didn't even run in the primary if they wanted to. In this day and age that won't happen and thats why we have superdelagtes having so many votes so we can be sure it will be over after the first vote. If it goes to a 2nd ballot I would be shocked, totally shocked.

In any event my own opinion is that if this goes till August without a nominee we are toast in November. We will get creamed by having a nominee so wounded with too little time to unite a fractured party. Since I believe its going to convention I think we are going to lose this election. I can't even believe I would be typing this- Who would have thought it possible a few months ago? But yes it looks quite grim.

[nadinbrzezinski]

131. I share your concern and why I posted this only to be called a partisan

:-)

And yes we will get creamed

That is my fear

[jzodda]

133. Its really depressing

After 8 years of this bullshit that started after a stolen election we actually destroy ourselves in what should be the best climate for us to win big in decades. I just can't believe this is going on.

[nadinbrzezinski]

134. In my worst moments I think it is by design

have the illusion of elections, if you get my drift

[dkf]

137. Hillary loses 25% of her supporters if she gets it.

Those are Limbaugh's people.

[nadinbrzezinski]

138. Well there is that but I am not looking at this from a single campaign

but for the future of the country and the USSC

[DUyellow]

139. for real

[tabasco]

140. Hillary supporters 28% shitheels.

Obama supporters 19%.

Could be true.

[Kahuna]

141. More of Hillary's supporters are willing to vote for McCain. It's no wonder

since she keeps endorsing him. :eyes

[Blarch]

142. To claim Obama has damaged ther party is absurd.

[Tennessee Gal]

143. NO, WRONG!

The poll is that if Obama gets the nomination 28% of the Clinton supporters will vote for McCain. If Clinton gets the nomination 19% of Obama supporters will vote for McCain. This was a poll of Democrats only.

The clear meaning is that Clinton holds onto more Democratic votes than Obama.

[GOPBasher]

144. Exactly what I've been saying. Here...

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/GOPBasher

[susankh4]

145. Ever since McCain moved to the head of the pack for the GOP

I have contended that we have a real problem on our hands. Many of Hillary's constituants will be more comfortable with John than with Barack.

1) He is respected by many Dems who wanted to recruit him to run with Kerry four years ago.

2) He's seen as a "cross the aisle" moderate.

3) He worked on Immigation reform in a way that will appeal to Latinos.

4) He is perceived as a "friend" to Hillary.

The fact that 28% of dems will defect to McCain is *not* a result of the bitterness of the campaign. It is simply the parsing out of constituancies... doing what they perceive as best for them. I know several of these folks personally. They exist! Don't fool yourselves.

[Rubiconski2009]

146. I sense desperation from Hillary supporters.

Cool down. Obama is the people's choice. Every generation need a revolution.


:hi: :patriot: :hi: