Another question about these damned polls....

[cliffordu]

They have been wrong soooooo many times, what are the odds that Obama wins by another landslide in Pennsylvania....?

[FlyingSquirrel]

1. They haven't been wrong all that often actually.

NH was probably the worst case and it wasn't exactly a landslide either way there either.

Obama could win PA but if he does, it'll be by a very small margin. More likely he'll lose by anywhere from 2-6%

My prediction is Clinton 52, Obama 46, Other 2% but I'm hoping it'll be closer of course.

[blonndee]

2. It'll be an Obama victory if he's within 10%, IMO, or even possibly within 15%,

given her huge leads going in.

[MadBadger]

3. An Obama win will not be measured by if he actually wins

The media narrative plays in his favor this time. The Media expects Clinton to win big and anything else is a defeat for her. They are expecting her to win by 15-20. IF she doesnt, its a moral victory for Obama and the media will play it that way

[hogwyld]

4. Even if Hillary wins by only 1%

She'll spin it as a overwhelming mandate from a big state that actually counts.

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. I'll go you one further

If she loses by 1% she'll allege massive voting fraud

[Muttocracy]

5. it's tough to compare different polls, but on the other hand it's good to look at more than one

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

has data on PA. Looks like Clinton will win, maybe by 10%? Several weeks of up and down to go though.