Obama stronger than Clinton in California, top-prize

[Ichingcarpenter]

Sen. Hillary Clinton’s argument for the Democratic presidential nomination includes a pitch that she can win the big states that Democrats need in November to amass at least 270 Electoral votes.

Yet a new poll in the biggest of all states – California – shows Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois stronger than Clinton among likely voters there – with Obama favored by 9 percentage points over Republican Sen. John McCain.

If the election were held today, California's likely voters would favor Obama over McCain by 49 to 40 percent, according to the survey. A Clinton-McCain match-up is a virtual tie: 46 percent Clinton, 43 percent McCain.

In the mid-March survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, voters there view the Democratic Party as “more capable than the Republican Party on four key national issues''

Californians give Democrats a 32-point advantage in handling health care (59 percent Democratic Party to 27 percent Republican Party), a 13-point advantage in handling the economy (50 percent to 37 percent, a 10-point edge in handling the situation in Iraq (48 percent to 38 percent), and a 5-point edge in handling immigration (42 to 37).

Six in 10 likely voters (61 percent) say they have a favorable opinion of Obama. Nearly half have a favorable view of McCain (49 percent) and fewer say so about Clinton (45 percent.)

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/03/obama_stronger_than_clinton_in.html

OK, the pledge delegates in California need to move to Obama now.........

[jgraz]

1. Obama also stronger than Biden, Gravel, Edwards, Dodd, Kucinich and Alan Keyes

All of whom have the same shot at the nomination that Hillary does.

[Ichingcarpenter]

3. This is in the LA times also

The poll was conducted March 11-18 while controversy boiled over the incendiary sermons of Obama's pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. But the survey had all but ended before the Illinois senator gave a major speech on race in America, which seemed to halt his slide in national popularity.

Grumpy Californians are demanding change, the policy institute's poll confirms, and Obama apparently represents that in the view of voters -- most notably swing-voting independents.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-cap27mar27,1,55052.column

I know California Politics having a friend that chairperson of a democratic party committee.
When the primary was held here, many didn't really didn't know Obama.

What struck me in the swing voting independents, and those are the ones
that helped get Arnold elected because they couldn't stand Davis.

[jgraz]

12. Most of the Clinton voters I know have serious buyer's remorse

Before the CA Primary, I would see a few Hillary signs and stickers scattered around. Now it's 100% Obama. That's not an exaggeration: I haven't seen a single Hillary sign since February.

[TahitiNut]

13. As one whose heart is Californicated, this makes sense to me.

California has an incredible array of political perspectives, but it's extraordinary in that it follows no other state or region in forming opinions. Californians (justifiably, I think) almost regard themselves as Californians first and foremost - the fifth largest economy in the world by itself.

It has always seemed to me that Obama would have a 2-5% advantage over Clinton against McCain. Not insignificant in that would be the fact (maybe just what I've observed) that California is remarkable insofar as race-based prejudices are less prevalent than gender-based prejudices. It's my guess that's a result of an extraordinary degree of immigration from cultures with far higher degrees of mysogyny than exists in the US. It's no secret that Asian and Hispanic cultures are even more male-dominated than ours ... even as we fight such attitudes in our own society.

That said, I don't believe that accounts for the entire advantage Obama would have. Outside of the stiff-necked conservative enclaves, most Californians are about aspirations and the future ... not inclined to wallow in the negativism and fear-mongering. Obama appeals to such sensibilities, I believe. The majority of Califirnians aren't inclined to sneer at "inspiration."

[Milo_Bloom]

2. I have been saying for weeks/months that Clinton puts CA into play.

McCain is viewed here as a "maverick"... something the people of CA like. Clinton is seen as "business as usual", something the people of CA don't like.

I met a lot of people during Dean's run in 2003 and not a single one of them plans to vote for Clinton. Most don't plan to vote for McCain, but CLinton will lose a huge black of CA voters and would likely lose CA in the general election or be forced to spend money here, which no dem should have to do.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

4. California doesn't count!

[book_worm]

5. Ras poll out today also has O winning Oregon by six, while C loses Oregon by six.

[Ichingcarpenter]

7. I saw your post and nominated it

It seems the whole west coast is a solid Obama win over McCain.

[MadBadger]

6. Too much has changed for me to put too much weight in this poll

It was measured from March 11-18. Half of these are before Wright, all are before Obama's speech, and all are before Tuzla.

[Ichingcarpenter]

8. If anything it is even more tilted now for Obama

He got really good reviews and press out her.

The Tuzla affair is played a lot on local news and it really
hurt Clinton. So, I expect she would poll even worse.

[MadBadger]

9. It will be interesting to see how it affects the numbers.

I think Obama will still be up 9, but Hillary will be tied.

[Ichingcarpenter]

11. Some of my neighbors who are Black voted for Clinton

in the primary, they really didn't know much about Obama at the time.
After the speech they are solid Obama supporters now and are turned off
by Clinton's negativity. They are retired military.

[Tarheel_Dem]

10. This is why the MSM will never let go of the Wright story....

It'll just keep resurfacing because the GOP, and Clinton's big money backers have decreed it so. I just hope that Obama can stay above it all, and won't feel the need to continually address this issue every time a new story pops up. He handled it very well the first time, and the polls bear that out.

[book_worm]

14. Gobama!