When Will the Race Be Over?--A Poll For ALL DUers!

[Barack_America]

I'm interested in knowing what my fellow DUers think about the state of the race.

So tell me, when will YOU feel comfortable declaring the race over and Obama the presumptive nominee?

Please provide your reasoning!




**Please note**
This poll assumes that Hillary will "go all the way" as she has recently stated. That is why "When Hillary drops out" is not an option...though it would simplify the matter.

[Barack_America]

1. Kick!

Thanks for the responses thus far!

:hi:

[Barack_America]

2. I picked "After PA if Hillary narrowly wins"...

Because the MSM storyline has been so focused on how Hillary has to (and should) win PA by a large margin. All we hear about regarding PA is how the demographics are in her favor, the endorsements are in her favor, etc.

If with all of that she only manages a narrow win (say 5% or less), the storyline will reverse itself, "why didn't Hillary win big when EVERYTHING was in her favor..."

The pressure on superdelegates to end this would be very strong.

[knight_of_the_star]

3. Other

Other being not soon enough.

[Barack_America]

5. Lol! Agreed.

:hi:

[gateley]

4. After PA but only if Obama wins.

To me, that seems fair and reasonable.

[dana_b]

6. She said that she is going all the way already and with this, I am taking her at her word. n/t

[RoadRage]

7. Sadly.. i think this is going to the convention.

As much as I want to believe that party insiders are really going to "talk" Clinton out of destroying the party further, I really fail to see why they would succeed. Clinton seems to be in tune to the beat of her & Bill's own drummer.. and I don't think anyone or anything will push them off course.

Unless the Super Delegates line up and push Obama over the magical number between now & then - I don't see how she steps down at this point. Why bother.. she's already lost whoever she's going to lose for support.. her supporters aren't going to leave her now - and she has nothing to lose.

[Barack_America]

10. Except her Senate seat.

I don't know, destroying the Democrats chance for the WH seems very risky, as far as I'm concerned.

Even so, you feel we cannot move on with her still *technically* in the race?

Is that a fair assessment?

[RoadRage]

13. I don't know how we move on..

with her in the race, because every media headline is about what she said to Obama or what Obama said back to her. Not a mention of what McCain did or said.. even when he seems to get things like Sunni & Shites mixed up - it barely makes the front page. THAT should have been the story of the week, but instead it was all about Wright, and now it's about Clinton saying she would have walked out of the church. Is that more important than the guy who wants to keep us at war for 100 years not even knowing exactly who we're with or against? NO.. but until we narrow it down to ONE candidate- I feel our party is stuck in neutral.

At this point, I really don't think either side (Clinton or Obama) is going to gain many more supporters. A line has been drawn in the sand, and most voters have picked a side. But, I do see how some of those will choose to sit out - either because they're sick of the whole thing, or pissed because their candidate didn't win (i'll admit to being guilty of the latter myself).

So, I do think it's important to move on quickly - but I don't think Clinton is going to bow out gracefully for the sake of the party. It's not in her nature, it's not what her supporters want her to do (obviously), and there isn't much anyone can do to physically force her out.

[Barack_America]

17. It's not THAT the media covers her, it's HOW the media covers her.

Right now they continue to cover her as a legitimate contender because, well, that storyline continues to get them ratings. Once the sense that the Democratic party is moving on gets out there (i.e. Gore endorses or some other party elder refers to Obama as the "presumptive nominee"), the press has two options for a new storyline:

1). How unfair Democrats are being to Hillary, because 'she hasn't dropped out yet', 'she could technically still win', etc.

2). To trash the Clintons as selfish, ruthless power-mongers who would rather destroy the Democratic party than bow out gracefully.

The one they choose would, again, depend on the ratings...but, I think we have a sense of what would bring in the higher ratings (think of the option that has decades of material to fuel the fire).

[cerebellum]

8. The race is already over

Over, but not technically. It is impossible for Clinton to erase Obama's 125 delegate lead. Unless you believe in miracles, of course. :-)

[zonmoy]

9. about the time that hillary has figured

that she and the leadership has successfully thrown the race to mccain.

[Jersey Devil]

11. May 6 - NC and Indiana primaries

Hillary will win PA by under 10 points and Obama will crush her in NC and win Indiana. Then the DNC pays a visit to the Clintons to let them know it is over.

[FlyingSquirrel]

12. Other:

If Obama leads in Popular vote and PD after June 3, and enough superdelegates endorse him to bring his total to 2,100

This would be a Michigan- and Florida-proof margin, a nice round number that even Hillary could not argue she could overcome at the convention by getting MI and FL counted as-is.

(In reality the number he'd need to be MI and FL proof, counting uncommitteds in MI for him, would be 2,082. But by reaching 2,100 he exceeds this number by enough to put to rest any doubt about how the uncommitteds might vote and it just looks good enough to say "it's over".)

---

Edit: I firmly believe that 2,100 including Supers who would endorse after June 3 is completely within Obama's grasp and would truly end this race for Clinton by making it an actual mathematical impossibility for her to win under any reasonable scenario.

[Barack_America]

14. A kick!

And goodnight!

:hi:

[Tresalisa]

15. I chose 'other'.

I think this hard-fought primary battle is going to convention. (I'd be happy to be wrong!)

[Laelth]

16. Right after Super Tuesday ...

the whole race was over, GE and all.

McCain can not beat Obama, and the Republics know it.

As I predicted here: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Laelth/18

-Laelth

[depakid]

18. We'll decide at the convention

And that is exactly as it should be.