-=-= The REAL Magic Number for Obama =-=-

[FlyingSquirrel]

What is it? Most Obama supporters go by the official line of 2,024. (It fluctuates up and down almost daily on DemConWatch) Many Clinton supporters say he'd need 2,208 (the number which would include MI and FL).

I say he needs 2,100 without Michigan and Florida to shut the door on this.

Here's my reasoning. It sounds like Hillary wants to stay in all the way to the Convention if there's any chance at all of her being able to prevail, which would include the chance of battling for all of Michigan and Florida's delegates. According to DemConWatch, Florida would add 105 for Clinton, 67 for Obama. If Uncommitteds in MI went to Obama, Michigan would add 73 for Clinton, 55 for Obama. Additional superdelegates for the two states: 15 for Clinton, 5 for Obama.

That works out to a total of 193 for Clinton, 127 for Obama, and would increase the total delegates needed from 2,024 to 2,208 because there would be an additional 35 superdelegates in MI and FL who are currently uncommitted to either candidate.

So let's say just for the sake of argument, we assume that Obama needs to ensure he'll have 2,208 including MI and FL. That means without MI and FL, he needs 2,208 - 127 = 2,081. But let's give Hillary the benefit of the doubt on Uncommitteds in MI: Let's say 15% of MI delegates should go to Edwards. That's 15% of 128 = 19 delegates away from Obama's total. So Obama gets only 36 delegates from MI under this scenario.

Add 19 to 2,081 and you get the nice round number of 2,100.

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So, if Obama has 2,100 total delegates in early June, including superdelegate endorsements, then adding Florida's 67 delegates, plus 36 delegates from Michigan, plus 5 additional superdelegates who have endorsed, would give him 2,208. It would truly be a mathematical impossibility for Clinton to win without some superdelegates changing their votes. It would probably seal the deal.

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Now let's look at what it would take for Obama to reach 2,100 in early June.

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Here's one scenario.

State | O Del. - C Del. | O % - C %

PA ... | .. 71 ..... 80 .. | 47 .... 53
IN ... | .. 38 ..... 28 .. | 58 .... 42
NC ... | .. 51 ..... 40 .. | 56 .... 44
WV .. | .. 11 ..... 15 .. | 42 .... 58
KY ... | .. 22 ..... 25 .. | 47 .... 53
OR ... | .. 25 ..... 23 .. | 52 .... 48
PR ... | .. 25 ..... 26 .. | 49 .... 51
MT ... | ... 8 ...... 7 .. | 54 .... 46
SD ... | .... 8 ...... 6 .. | 56 .... 44
GU ... | .... 2 ...... 1 .. | 53 .... 47

ALL .. | .. 261 ... 251 . | 51 .... 49

Add 261 to Obama's current total of 1616 and you get 1,877.

At this point Obama would still be leading in Pledged delegates, Number of states, and Popular vote (I calculate that this would be true even including MI and FL, if the above percentages came true).

In order for Obama to get to the magic number of 2,100, then, he would need another 223 Superdelegate endorsements - occurring either by flipping some of Clinton's current supers or by currently uncommitted supers endorsing him.

If we were to assume that all of Clinton's superdelegates stayed with her, Obama would need 66.2% of the 337 remaining uncommitted superdelegates to endorse him in early June after all primaries were over.

IMO if he has won every category, this could easily occur. Once he passes the 2,024 mark (with perhaps another 150 supers), the others would come flooding in and he would easily reach or exceed 2,100.

At this point there would be no argument left for Hillary to take the fight to the Convention.

[grantcart]

1. You make a good point. I have resigned myself that the only number that will

convince Clinton to stop is if her contributions dry up and she has to write everything out of her own pocket.

Once Obama has 1627 he will have half of the pledged delegates and the whole focus of the contest will shift. Clinton will be in the postition of overturning the results of the primaries and caucuses. As a petulant child she will argue that the contest wasn't fair.

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. That could come as early as May 20...

After Oregon. But at that point there's only 2 weeks left in the season so I'm sure Clinton would not drop out then.

However we might start seeing a serious shift in superdelegates from May 20 on if Obama had 1,627 pledged delegates at that point. Lately things have really leveled out and that's probably one of the reasons Clinton is still in it, because she has a core group of supers that have stayed with her.

[TheDoorbellRang]

3. The pledged delegate count

will actually be a bit higher in the last ten races, which will give Obama even more delegates and a bigger edge. I think you may have inadvertently accessed an old delegate count for those states. According to TheGreenPapers, pledged delegate counts would be:

PA - 158
GU - 4
NC - 115
IN - 72
WV - 28
OR - 52
KY - 51
PR - 55
MT - 16
SD - 15

566 total pledged delegates to play with, instead of just 512 in your totals. Much better for Obama. :D

Also, I think they'd have enough of a sh*tstorm seating MI delegates without arbitrarily giving 15% of the uncommitted to Edwards. I'd guess they be more inclined to give Obama all or none of the uncommitted from MI, and wouldn't THAT be a battle royale.

grantcart and phrigndumass both have a lot of THE MATH on various scenarios, too; you might enjoy taking a look at their journals.

Always enjoy these math threads. Thanks for posting, FS.:hi:

[FlyingSquirrel]

4. Thanks for the info

(I haven't looked at greenpapers in awhile, oops!) :blush:

and I always do check out grantcart's work, haven't seen phrigndumass's though.

It looks like there may be another 14 delegates still floating around among states that have already voted but that's not a biggie.

So, taking into account this new info, we'd get:

State - O ... C

PA ... 74 ... 84
IN .... 42 ... 30
NC ... 64 ... 51
WV .. 12 ... 16
KY ... 24 ... 27
OR ... 27 ... 25
PR ... 27 ... 28
MT .... 9 .... 7
SD ..... 8 .... 7
GU ..... 2 .... 2

ALL .. 289 .. 277

Adding 289 to 1616 we'd get 1,905 total delegates for Obama

He would then need only 195 additional superdelegate endorsements to reach my magic number of 2,100.

That would be only 57.9% of them instead of the 66.2% in the OP!

And if you assumed that all the Uncommitteds in MI should go to Obama (a reasonable enough idea), and the magic number was in fact only 2,081, then he'd need only 52.2% of the remaining supers!

(Or less if he got a few more delegates from states that have already voted)

I really think this will happen in June or earlier. I don't see a convention battle happening.

[TheDoorbellRang]

5. I agree with you on June or earlier for resolution of this

If I were TPTB in the democratic party, I'd have the super D's trickle in for Obama between now and Oregon. Here's my theory on how things might play out.

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. You could be right...

It would look better for the primary to be the thing that puts him over the top. On the other hand there are a lot of superdelegates who feel that the primaries should be allowed to completely play out first before they endorse.

Who knows... I just know that Obama will need to be able to say he's mathematically eliminated Clinton even with the extreme possibility of FL and MI being counted as-is, and even in the extreme possibility that he might only get 28% of the delegates from MI.

That means 2,100 IMO. But getting over half the PD's (1,627) will be a stepping stone that will convince a lot of supers to endorse him, and having over half the CURRENT total needed (2,024) obviously will be an even bigger stepping stone. I don't know if Hillary would continue to argue that she should be allowed to continue to the convention in spite of 2,024 but she seems pretty determined. So that's why I think he'll need the extra 76 delegates.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. kick for morning crowd / further discussion

[phrigndumass]

8. Good info, well thought-out, kicked & rec'd

I have the Huckabee Index at 73 this morning.

If 73 more SDs or PD-changes go toward Senator Obama, it would make it mathematically impossible for Senator Clinton to win the nomination. That's less than 25% of the remaining superdelegates.

Click on my profile to see the link to my journal with more math.

:hi:

[DrFunkenstein]

9. I'd Say Most Pledged Delegates, Popular Vote and States Contested Will Suffice

To open the superdelegate floodgates. They only fear the Clintons. They are looking for an excuse to vote for Obama.