Hillary can still win

[AGirl]

Obama 48.5%- Clinton 47.1% - popular vote includ. ONLY Florida

Hillary can still win it.

That is why she is not going to quit.

[DJ13]

1. Tonya Harding thought so too

:eyes:

[Bluebear]

33. Handing *could* have won. She certainly was technically very, very strong.

[skater314159]

55. If this makes one strong, sure...

But if Harding was really strong (in terms of self esteem and talent) she wouldn't have had to resort to violence to win.

Hillary's tactics are just as doomed to failure as Tanya Harding's were.

[JuniperLea]

85. That's the worst part of it...

She was really good... she very well could have won without stooping to violence.

We will never know.

[anonymous171]

2. The pressure will keep building.

As Obama's numbers will get higher, and her coffers get emptied out she will have no choice.

[BeatleBoot]

34. I thought the so called "pressure" was just relieved today

with Dean's statement and Al Gore's concurrence.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/03/howard_dean_pushing_for_a_deci.html

Howard Dean gave Hillary Clinton help on Friday by telling superdelegates they can wait until July 1 to make up their minds.

Al Gore seems to be in agreement, handing Barack Obama a major political defeat today. The Obama campaign launched its now-failed effort to force Clinton out of the race last week.

[anonymous171]

38. I said it WILL build. It's not even halfway there.

The more she attacks, the more ineffective she will become. If Obama gets within 10% in PA she will have problems.

[Mooney]

61. How did Al Gore hand Obama "a major political defeat"?

It's an honest question --- I didn't see anything about this in the news today. Please to explain?

[Thickasabrick]

83. Who said it was a "major defeat"? Obama himself said "let Hillary decide"

I can't wait till the NC primary - I finally get to have my say.

[GarbagemanLB]

3. yeah....no.

[tabasco]

4. How do you count the caucuses?

Those states don't count, right?

[Blue-Jay]

5. Math is hard.

Barbie said so.

[AGirl]

8. that is sexist

[TlalocW]

15. If it makes you feel any better

Some people once switched out the voice chips in several talking Barbies and talking GI Joes, repackaged them, and snuck them back onto store shelves sometime in the late 90s so on Christmas, little boys were waking up to GI Joes that said, "Math is hard," and, "Let's paint our nails," and little girls got Barbies that yelled, "Yo, Joe!" and, "Eat lead, Cobra!"

TlalocW

[theredpen]

20. Barbie Liberation Front

They were awesome.

[tridim]

46. I think that was a Simpsons episode. nt

[theredpen]

50. It was referenced in a Simpsons episode

There was a "Malibu Stacy" episode based on the incident, but it was real.

Mattel did release a talking Barbie that said, "Math is hard." Feminists — well, lots of people really — were seriously pissed off by the implication that the pretty-girl Barbie couldn't do math. http://sniggle.net/barbie.php">Here is a site about the issue and the Barbie Liberation Army's response.

Probably my favorite response to this is from Danica McKellar (best known as "Winnie" from "The Wonder Years"). Danica is a rather sexy woman herself is also really into math. She has a book called http://www.mathdoesntsuck.com/">Math Doesn't Suck which encourages young women to get into math.

[CreekDog]

51. "My Malibu Stacey says something funny...

'My spidey-sense is tingling' :rofl:

[VolcanoJen]

72. "Let's go to the mall, Skipper!"

:-)

"Teen Talk Barbie"

[Blue-Jay]

28. Yes, it is.

[Mike03]

6. For all I know you are right, but what do you say about the "math" argument

that she cannot possibly overtake Obama numerically as far as the delegates go?

[AGirl]

9. I am not saying she can overtake him, but its legit for a superdelegate to look at popular vote

[Mike03]

13. I don't presume to know how this will turn out. As I said, you could be right.

Anything is probably possible. This has been a very strange couple of years.

Even though I prefer Obama, I urge you to keep the faith. I know that you have been a staunch and consistent supporter of Hillary Clinton, and I respect that very much. She has some tremendous qualities.

[AGirl]

I am not really supporting Clinton... I am just stating there's a good probability Hillary can win.

[Mike03]

18. Oh, I apologize. I thought you were a Clinton supporter. My bad. NT

[AGirl]

19. I see no reason to choose between Obama and Clinton - same deal to me.

[cbayer]

57. Just FYI, AGirl has had a great deal of confusion about who she supports.

Sometimes she will post something hateful about a candidate. Then. before you know it, she has an OP declaring her undying adulation. She goes back and forth between the two candidates in a fairly dramatic fashion.

[skater314159]

52. "a good probability"?

Do you understand probability and statistics?

I think not.

While it is still possible for Hillary to win the nomination, it is not probable.

[verges]

71. Good probability

Might be a bit of an overstatement. Outside chance might be more descriptive.

[Capn Sunshine]

26. granted. While we're at it how about we look at individual donations?

And hey, what about Arms Industry donations? Those should count. Cause Hillary has a massive lead in that department.

[cali]

7. yeah, she can win it IF

Obama completely implodes, and that's very, very unlikely to happen. The best chances of that have gone by- Rezco and Wright. Hilly's odds of winning are slim to none. Oh, and you're so all over the map, you have zip credibility.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

10. And dont you let nobody convince you otherwised!

:bluebox: :redbox: :graybox: :daily: :weekly: :tv: :radio: :web:

[cloudythescribbler]

11. Hillary Clinton CANNOT win without superdelegates outvoting pledged delegate lead ...

which would be a disaster and a travesty IN PRACTICE for the Democratic Party. Ferraro and others are saying that the SDs should decide what is best for the party, and not follow the voters, but in this kind of situation, going over the voters' heads would both insure a Repug victory in November and do long-lasting damage to the Democratic Party, just at the point when some at least in theory (in a real democracy at least) the chances for a Democratic Party majoritarian program might otherwise be realizable.

So YES, it is possible for HRC to win, but NO, not without enormous damage to the Democratic Party (for progressives like myself, with little or no actual 'party loyalty' to the Democratic Party except as a better alternative than the other party the damage would be to the substance of the differences that Democrats provide from Republicans).

[AGirl]

12. Superdelegate is part of the nomination process, you can't change the rule in the middle of the game

[anonymous171]

14. I wish Hillary believed that.

[cloudythescribbler]

23. There is no "change" of the "rules" for superdelegates, but rather advocacy of an approach ...

No one is suggesting that the "rules" of the Democratic Party be changed regarding the superdelegates (as HRC and campaign HAS been trying to do vis a vis FL and MI). But it IS legitimate for people (including Donna Brazile, superdelegate) to INSIST that the SDs NOT be used to trump who gets both the most votes and the most pledged delegates. (Of course, various stalemate situations are imaginable where the SDs would be needed to not just go with who has the most pledged delegates but rather break a logjam. This is NOT the situation, unless HRC were to have a TREMENDOUS voting surge, which March 4 was NOT. Merely winning PA and possibly IN, by modest margins, while losing in NC would NOT be the kind of surge that would justify HRC being seriously considered for the nomination by the SDs.

[AGirl]

30. But thats just your opinon against mine.

I think that if a superdelegates pick Hillary partly because she won the overall popular vote (including Florida because all of the names were on the ballot) , I think that's a rational decision.

[cloudythescribbler]

82. Basically MANY Democrats are arguing that HRC can't win w/o SDs overturning elections, & that ...

she should drop out of the campaign. Even just a few days after folk (like Jackson_Democrat) were describing Obama as "unelectable", he has opened up the WIDEST lead yet in the daily Gallup poll. HRC is tanking, and unless something MAJOR upsets this process, popular opinion and pressure on the SDs from people with 'just my opinion' will mean Obama will be the nominee.

My main concern at this point is that there not be such confusion, and lack of thoroughgoing party unity in Nov at the grassroots as well as the leadership in Nov. It is key at this point not to sabotage Obama from beating McCain

[theredpen]

27. Unless you want to count Florida

Which you did.

[JVS]

45. There would have to be a fucking huge problem for them to overturn the elected delegates.

If Hillary starts polling 70-30 against Obama, they could justify it. But being a few % behind is not a position that gives strength to any argument to overturn the people's votes.

[verges]

74. The irony

of a Hillary supporter saying that with a straight face is astounding!

[UALRBSofL]

16. Great post, thanks for posting

"YES WE CAN" GO HILLARY

[emilyg]

62. Love it!

[verges]

77. Yeah,

you might be on to something. She may have a Napoleon complex. She seems to expect to be crowned Empress. Of course, Napoleon earned the title via military service/conquest. Hillary just has a badly run campaign.

[Bigleaf]

17. Yes, she can. I can win the California State Lottery, too. After all, I bought a ticket.

[theredpen]

24. Bought a ticket! I knew I was forgetting something! That's why I never win!

[Hieronymus]

21. Gallup shows Obama with an 8% lead.

[theredpen]

22. Florida won't be counted.

Plus popular vote doesn't mean much, except maybe to convince superdelegates to vote against the delegate count.

Funny how "those are the rules" applies to superdelegates but doesn't seem to apply to MI and FL forfeiting their delegates.

[AGirl]

25. It won't be counted offically, but the superdelegates can look at the popular vote, includ Florida

[anonymous171]

29. But they would know that Obama never campaigned there.

Everywhere he campaigns his numbers go straight up.

[AGirl]

31. They could look at that and also the huge turnout of Dem voters in Florida.

I think about 1.6 million dem voters voted in Florida, it would be silly to ignore that.

[theredpen]

39. It would also be silly to assume they turned out for Clinton

There was a rather hotly contested ballot initiative affecting property taxes that drew out a lot of voters. Witness the fact that Florida was one of the few states to draw more Republican voters than Democratic voters. There was obviously something else in play there.

[AGirl]

41. It does not matter why they turned out, the fact is they did,

[theredpen]

49. I does matter why they turned out

If you are going to say that we should overturn the pledged delegate count based partly on the turnout in Florida, then it matters why they turned out. If they turned out because they all really, really, really, really, wanted Hillary Clinton to be President, that might be a factor in favor of overturning the count. If they turned out to vote on a tax initiative, then it is not a reason to overturn the pledged delegate count.

[AGirl]

66. The fact that they are not turning out just because of Hillary is exactly why

the vote should be considered, because it is representative of more people, not just Hillary supporters.

[Joe the Revelator]

70. You seem to be having a LOT of problems following this conversation

Don't bring a cucumber to a gun fight.

[AGirl]

73. ah huh.

[theredpen]

84. Voter turnout in the primaries has never been a factor in an election

This could be the year, but maybe not.

The Florida legislature cynically forfeited the Florida vote. Florida has been a pain in the ass for the last two election cycles. I say screw 'em. Obama can win Colorado and Washington. We don't need Florida. If they want to "protest" by staying at home they deserve McCain.

The fact is that they turned out in a primary election where they had no delegates at stake. Clinton had sent her husband in to campaign hard and Obama just had ads that coincidentally ran in Florida because they were on national channels.

It's not logical to seat the Florida delegates, it's not fair to seat the Florida delegates, and the Florida vote isn't going to convince anyone to overturn the elections that did follow the rules.

[Liberal Gramma]

47. My understanding was that the high vote turnout was

attributed to some tax rebate issue on the ballot that was hugely popular.

[AGirl]

67. Many people have opinon on tax related issues

making the vote more representative of the popular will of Floridians.

[Liberal Gramma]

91. I think that's what's known as a non-sequitor

Your point was that Florida Dems were dying to voice their preference for the Democratic candidate. The actual reason so many voted was to pass a tax relief bill, the primary candidate selection was if not coincidental, at least secondary. I posit that if the tax relief bill had not been on the ballot, Florida voters would have stayed home in droves.

[theredpen]

37. That would make sense if the campaign had been run normally in Florida

Obama never campaigned in Florida. Clinton did. The fact is that Florida (and Michigan) are not valid representations of the primary race.

Furthermore, even you point out that she's still losing the popular vote even if you include Florida.

Finally, "the rules" (which have become oh-so-important to the Clinton camp, like, yesterday) show that you have to win by delegates. If you think that the superdelegates are going to overturn Obama's sizable (and growing) pledged delegate lead because of what could only possibly be a razor thin popular vote lead (if she even gets one), then you are simply delusional. I don't know how else to put it. I honestly can't understand how anyone could be expecting Clinton to win the nomination at this point; all the "Clinton can win" scenarios are — to be polite — grasping at straws.

[AGirl]

40. Clinton didn't campaign in Florida, Obama is the one who has ads up in Florida btw.

[theredpen]

59. Oh for the love of Jeebus, you're not buying that, are you?

Barack Obama made an ad buy on nationwide cable channels and that meant that some of his TV spots would run in Florida — because they ran everywhere. You might as well argue that both candidates campaigned in Florida because their web sites could be accessed from Florida. It's not possible to make an ad buy on, say CNN, that doesn't run in Florida. It's not possible to keep people in Florida who have DirecTV or Dish Network from seeing the content that is beamed to then entire Western hemisphere from space.

The claim that Obama campaigned in Florida is flimsier than the claim that Saddam had WMDs in 2002.

Meanwhile, Clinton is claiming that she didn't campaign in Florida because personally, she didn't. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton practically lived in Florida, and he wasn't there just to get a tan. He gave speeches, and held rallies and fund raisers.

So, if you want to rest on ridiculous technicalities, then what you said is correct. If you want to be at all sensible, then Clinton campaigned in Florida and Obama didn't.

[verges]

79. And they can also

look at the fact she said McCain was better than Obama.

[jenmito]

32. Your spin is Clintonesque. FL popular vote won't count. Hillary's behind in the delegates, too,

and since Super Tuesday, Obama gained something like 48 SDs and Hillary LOST 5! Give it up.

[Mike03]

35. That's pretty hard.

I think the OP is just stating an honest opinion, not "spin." Not everyone around here is trying to spin.

People on both sides of this vote have Hope, and it's not my place or your place to rob anyone of inspiration or hope right now.

[ProSense]

36. No she cannot:

Florida and MI:

Actual Popular Vote Total
Obama 13,355,239 (+717,276)
Hillary 12,637,963

FL
Obama 576,214
Hillary 870,986
Total votes 1,447,200

Popular Vote (w/FL)
Obama 13,931,453 (+422,504)
Hillary 13,508,949


MI
Clinton 328,151
Uncommitted 237,762

Popular Vote (w/FL and MI)
Obama 13,931,453 (+94,195)
Clinton 13,837,258

Let's say Obama got the uncommitted MI votes

Popular Vote (w/FL and MI)
Obama 14,169,215 (+331,957)
Clinton 13,837,258

In these scenarios Obama is clearly ahead, even with no MI votes going to him.

What would a revote mean? Hillary would not get more than 58% of the MI and 60% of the FL vote as indicated above. In fact, she stands to lose ground.

[krawhitham]

42. and Pigs Can Still Fly

[AGirl]

43. really? I like to see that.

Take pics.

[RiverStone]

60. Hillary is toast....but

I'll give ya credit AGirl, standing tall for Hillary when your outnumbered by a ratio of 5 to 1 (on DU).

I hope we will have a chance to fight together to kick puke ass this fall.


peace~:)

[CreekDog]

53. Only if you throw them

...under a bus

[FARAFIELD]

44. nah she cant

She could win PA by 600K and still be behind. She could win PA by 700K and be tied but still finish behind because he will get more votes the rest of the way. Its insurmountable. The only way is a revote (which she would have to win in MICHIGAN) and humoungous wins in PA NC and INdiana (the biggest states left to vote) and remember OBAMA is going to win some of the remaining states.

[Hawkeye-X]

48. Didn't you just switch sides from Hillary to Obama a few days ago?

and now you're switching back. Uh-huh.

Last time I believe you, Agirl.


Hawkeye-X

[Mike03]

54. Lol, give some of us a break.

I've also been guilty of waivering.

For some of us, this decision was not so easy to make. I can't put words in anyone else's mouth, but I have also been all over the map:

Gore
Biden
Edwards
Clinton V. Obama
Now finallly Obama

Some of you folks make it look so easy. It wasn't easy for me, and maybe not so easy for some others.



:hi:

[Ichingcarpenter]

56. She did, then she went to Gravel and said she was always

with Gravel, first she was for Hillary, then Obama, then Gravel now back to Hillary.

She a multidimensional supporter and detractor of candidates and bad math.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

64. It's no small feat to be so athletic a supporter.

:web:

[AGirl]

65. Why is it whenever someone speaks on behalf of Hillary

it makes them a Hillary supporter?

[PresidentObama]

58. Keep telling yourself that over and over, and it still won't be true.

[DuaneBidoux]

63. If you think so you have not seriously looked at the scenarios

Yes she can win, but the chances of such a scenario are roughly 1 in 20, and in the meantime she is hurting the democrats chances of taking the White House in November.

[workinclasszero]

68. Yup Hillary can still "win"

[tammywammy]

69. You're right, she can

[lojasmo]

75. This isn't a popular vote contest. Please do some reading.

Like, books, and stuff.

But you can start here.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/

I suggest your pass it all around to your fellow Clinton supporters.

[AGirl]

76. Please learn about the concept of democracy....what it means like 1 person = 1 vote..

google democracy

[SoonerPride]

86. Google this

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=rules+for+democratic+primaries

You'll see that delegates matter, popular votes do not.

Sorry.

You lose.

[AGirl]

87. are you speaking for All Superdelegates?

[SoonerPride]

89. I know the rules, dear.

And I also know politics.

It would be suicide for the superdelegates to overturn the winner of the most pledged delegates.

It would destroy the party and be seen as the biggest racial screw job in history by the party's loyalest base. Thus, super delgates simply won't overturn the will of the people.

Popular vote is not the factor they will look at.

They will look at delegates.

And Obama has an insurmountable lead in those.

It is over, sweetie pie.

Hang em up.

It is indeed over.

[AllentownJake]

78. To quote an old movie

and Monkeys could fly out of my butt

[Condem]

80. Why?

Do you people respond to this horseshit?

[RBInMaine]

81. Scorched earth strategy. Acts of Clinton desperation. Sad.

[surfermaw]

88. Especially with the word it is going to be a Hill and Gore ticket.

[Condem]

90. Hey?

Why the confidence?

[Vinca]

92. I can just picture the first McCain commercial against Hillary.

"He was a Navy pilot and a POW for 5 years, refusing to leave his men behind. Hillary has told a harrowing account of dodging sniper fire in the Balkans, but, as you can see, (insert news clip), it just didn't happen. Can you trust Hillary?"