Is it actually posible for Obama to overtake Hillary in PA?? If so, how?

[RBInMaine]

Much like Ohio (which, unlike the way the SILLY MSM portrayed it, was HEAVILY favored for Hillary from the outset) the PA demographics make it tough for Obama. There are just so many rural/blue collar/older/establishment machine Dems. She has the popular Gov. on her side bigtime, as well as Murtha and the Philly AA Mayor. But Obama seems to be slowly gaining ground on her. The Casey endorsement is important. As in any race, he has to find ways to cut into Hillary's female/older/downscale/caucasian/party machine base. IMO it will be very tough to overcome her demographic advantages, but with a smart campaign and proper messaging and groundwork he can close it to within
5 points. One thing I have to give Hillary credit for is how she is able to target a TOUGH GAL working class fighter message to her base.
She gets very CONCRETE about what she will provide these people if she can become POTUS. What do people think?

[doc03]

1. Well Rush Limbaugh is considering having

his ditto-heads vote for Obama. He's smart he knew Ohio would be a blowout for Hillary so he told his ditto-heads to vote for Hillary so therefore he claimed he was responsible for her win. Today he was talking about having them vote for Obama, he will watch the polls and if it looks like Obama is closing in some he will order them to vote Obama and claim credit for that too.

[VolcanoJen]

8. Except for that pesky "Closed Primary" part, this might be an interesting plan.

Doesn't sound like Rush did his homework on this one. In Ohio (my state), any registered voter could have waltzed up to their polling place and declare themselves a Registered Democrat right on the spot. In fact, many precincts didn't even require party-switchers to fill out the recommended affidavit. To this day, local Republicans still brag about "The Plan" and voting for Clinton that day. It was widespread and rampant. It broke my heart.

Now, in Pennsylvania, if you didn't become a registered Democrat in time (I believe the deadline was sometime last week), you are locked out of the Democratic Primary. In Ohio and Texas, the cross-voting was similar to a crime of passion. In Pennsylvania, last-minute vote-switching isn't possible.

I don't see Obama overtaking Clinton in Pennsylvania, mainly because of its similarities to Ohio, but I think he can keep her victory under 10 points. One important consideration that many people miss... Obama won the big cities/counties of Ohio in landslides. Dayton, Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland. I expect a repeat in Pennsylvania, and considering that Philadelphia is much bigger than the largest of the Ohio cities, he could really hurt her in the popular vote in the big, urban counties and take the lion's share of the delegates there.

Edit: Please don't make the mistake again of calling Rush "smart."

[AllentownJake]

56. Evidently

Rush was telling his people about the deadline in PA.....Crafty is the word not smart.

[VolcanoJen]

64. But....

... I posted a similar sentiment downthread... do you think it'll work?

It was one thing in OH and TX where any wingnut asshole could waltz into his polling place and change parties on the spot. A crime of passion, if you will. Asking them to do it, and stick to their guns four weeks later, well, that's another thing entirely.

Maybe a few thousand ditto-head lameasses will try to mess with the system. But premeditating the disingenuous party-switching is harder to pull off than on-the-spot whim voting, don't you think?

[AllentownJake]

66. Well

We'll know on election night.

If you see record turnout in the rural counties....he pulled it off.

[Yael]

62. Monday the 24th was our cutoff

[doc03]

68. I don't think Rush will let truth get in the way

he will probably still take credit, his ditto-heads won't know any different anyway.

[Tiggeroshii]

2. I think he can.

And if he wins narrowly it might be game over for Hillary. And if he wins by 10 or more % than there will be tremendous pressure for her to drop out.

[movonne]

3. I don't know but anything is possible...

[Colobo]

4. He'll lose by 10 pts.

[FlyingSquirrel]

58. I disagree. He'll probably lose 52-46 or something like that

But he could come as close as 51-48

[rocktivity]

5. All Obama has to do in PA is keep Hillary as far from 65% of the vote as possible

Hillary has to win PA--and all the other remaining contests--by at least 30 points if she wants to get close enough to Obama to have a legitimate case to plead to the superdelegates.

:headbang:
rocknation

[FrenchieCat]

6. Since we are talking about Obama, we can't underestimate him.....

although we'll let the MSM do that.

[Bullet1987]

7. I heard one theory say he could win the way Ed Rendell did...

by running up the numbers in Philly and the surrounding suburbs. Plus, we don't know how all of the new registered voters will fall. Though, I have to agree with Katz...it's like that Clinton wins in PA.

[NJSecularist]

9. Sorry, that won't happen

A primary election is different than a general election.

There is very little chance that Obama wins PA.

[RBInMaine]

13. As you see, I'd be TOUGH for him to win. But, how could he get CLOSE.

[NJSecularist]

20. He'd need to slaughter Hillary in Philadelphia County

like Rendell did to Swann (90-10) to have any chance.

And even with that, he'd need to keep his margins of defeat respectable in Allegheny, Bucks, Chester and Montgomery County to have any chance to carry the state..

[AlinPA]

18. Agree they are different . But the middle of the state ("T") has few Democrats;

that is right wing republican territory and I don't think it will play a large part as it does in GEs. That is the area that people refer to as being like Ohio and by some as Alabama with white, rural voters. The race will have most Democrats voting in the east and Pittsburgh area.

[democrattotheend]

59. I think the poster might have meant the Rendell v. Casey primary

Most pundits expect the Clinton-Obama map to look a lot like the Casey-Rendell map, which makes their respective endorsements kind of ironic.

[democrattotheend]

57. I was in the Philly suburbs last weekend

And he had some support, but not as much as I had hoped. Although someone told me in response to my post on DailyKos that the particular supermarket I was stationed at tends to attract a lot of religious Jews who are less progressive than other people in Montgomery County, so my perception might have been a bit skewed.

[AlinPA]

10. I think he needs to show up all over PA in towns like Johnstown, Altoona,

Erie, Indiana, State College, York, Harrisburg, Oil City, ...... When people see him and listen to him, the polls will close toward his favor.

[k8conant]

53. or Meadville, Latrobe, Somerset, Bedford, Chambersburg

:bounce:

[AlinPA]

67. He was in Latrobe yesterday at a popular Sports Bar on rt 30. Greensburg

before that.

[RBInMaine]

11. What do people think Obama has to do in terms of messaging, tactics, etc??

[PM7nj]

32. He needs to talk about the economy

He has to talk about the economy and show people he isn't an empty suit. There is still a belief that he has no real plans. He does, and he needs to sell that to the people in PA.

[JimGinPA]

12. Rendell & Mayor Nutter Are Not Going To Carry Philly For Mrs. Clinton...

And we have registered so many new voters for Obama that a lot of the counties she does win are not going to net her many delegates.

[VolcanoJen]

15. Exactly! Expect a repeat of Ohio, in that sense.

In my state, Obama won the big cities in landslides, as I mentioned in a post upthread... Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Dayton. Philly is far, far more populous than even the largest Ohio city (Cleveland), so I'd have to expect the urban Pennsylvania voters are with Obama, the way we urban Ohioans were. :-)

[AlinPA]

19. I think that most rural area voters in PA are republicans, and the race will boil down

to the cities.

[NJSecularist]

22. Cuyahoga County wasn't enough for Obama to carry Ohio

And Philadelphia County won't be enough for Obama to carry Pennsylvania.

[VolcanoJen]

26. No kidding.

It's a delegate race, remember? Big victories by Obama in the Ohio cities/most populated counties helped to minimize her delegate haul... same thing will happen in Pennsylvania, only, they have bigger cities. :-)

[blue neen]

41. I was at the Obama Town Hall Meeting in Greensburg, PA today.

This is in rural Westmoreland County, about an hour east of Pittsburgh. He and Senator Casey were there after the rally this morning in Pittsburgh where Casey announced his endorsement of Obama.

Right here in rural western PA the tickets for this event were gone in HALF AN HOUR yesterday. That speaks volumes about what is happening on the ground here in PA. Pennsylvanians of all persuasions want a change!

It was a great rally, Volcano Jen...the people are really fired up. I don't know whether Obama will carry PA, but I do believe that it will be much closer than earlier predicted. :)

[VolcanoJen]

43. How awesome for you!!

Did you start a seperate OP about your rally experience? Tickets were gone in rural PA in a half-hour?

This is very encouraging and exciting. Remember, Obama only had a few weeks to get his game together in time for OH and TX, and we were bumrushed by Limbaugh Voters, the Kitchen Sink, Somali Photo, the NAFTA lies, "Shame on you, Barack Obama." It was, in retrospect, the ugliest segment of the entire campaign.

I really think you guys can pull it close. Anything in single digits, and I'll be absolutely thrilled!

[blue neen]

45. Yes, and tomorrow Obama is going to Johnstown, PA which is in Cambria County.

At that point, you are getting close to the center of the state, the so-called "Alabama" of PA.

The tickets for THAT rally are gone.

Johnstown is John Murtha's hometown. I guess he won't be there tomorrow since he endorsed Hillary earlier this week. Too bad for Jack!

[JimGinPA]

27. No, But There Are A Lot Of Cities Obama WILL Carry Besides Philly

Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Allentown, Bethlehem, State College, Erie, Pottstown and Reading plus many others.

[PM7nj]

44. I'm not so sure...

I have always seen Pottstown as the "white blue collar" Capital of the world, and Redding is also very blue collar and has many Hispanics. Allentown is also a pretty conservative city and blue collar as well. I'm not sure, why do you think he will carry these cities?

[AllentownJake]

60. I can speak for Allentown

Allentown was blue collar...it isn't that much anymore not that there is anything wrong with being Blue Collar but the factories closed and new industries moved in. Manufacturing is only 15% of employment.

Allentown will be close but we have alot of boots on the ground.

[GoneOffShore]

31. Ya think?

For every Hillary sign I've seen in Philly there are 4 Obama signs.

And last week in Rittenhouse Square there were Hillary supporters who couldn't give away their leaflets. Not to mention the Honk for Hillary sign which wasn't getting any response.

That and Hilary making nice with Mellon Scaife last week - the most hated Repub in Pittsburgh - that's going to go well with Pittsburgh Dems. :sarcasm:

Along with the NAFTA thing and the Sniper thing she's shot herself in the foot in PA..

Fast Eddie won't be able to deliver and there goes his place at the high table.

[VolcanoJen]

35. Hey Keystoner, a question for you...

.. does Teresa Heinz-Kerry still pull any weight in the Pittsburgh area, or in greater Pennsylvania? And is she planning any campaign stops for Obama that you know of?

[GoneOffShore]

46. I don't know what sort of weight she pulls in Pittsburgh

She did make a statement in favor of Obama the other day IIRC

[PM7nj]

49. Haha, they are not concentrating on the right places at all

I saw a small group with "honk for hillary" signs on Germantown Ave in Mt Airy. They weren't getting any honks. You would think they would be concentrating on the areas she could actually get votes in, like the Northeast and Pennsport. I was driving down Roosevelt Blvd last week but didn't see anything.

[SoonerPride]

14. She will only net 8-10 delegates.

And Obama will erase those gains in NCarolina and Indiana.

And Hillary will run out of money and that will be it

[VolcanoJen]

17. That's the scenario I see.

Due to the urban Pennsylvania vote, Obama could earn super-majorities and the lion's share of delegates in the cities, much like he did in Ohio.

He looks very strong in North Carolina, and Indiana is a thisclose... we Cincinnatians are already canvassing the southeastern Indiana counties hard.

[RBInMaine]

24. Great ! Thanks for working for Obama in Indiana !

[VolcanoJen]

29. And Kentucky, too!

We're leaving nothing to chance. We have such a great, loyal, and closeknit group of Cincinnati Obama supporters. It's great to be in the Tri-State area, with two states left to vote!

Monday is Reds Opening Day in Cincinnati... practically a local holiday. We got a permit to set up a huge voter registration booth on the Kentucky side of one of the beautiful bridges people walk over to get to the stadium.

We are all over it, baby!!! :-)

[Kukesa]

61. What kind of response are you getting?

I have my Obama button on my handbag, and last night a group of people jeered and laughed at me. I ignored 'em.

[VolcanoJen]

63. What!??!??!

I'll kick their asses for messing with VolcanoMom!!

Ignoring them is a good plan. The Obama Button is the universal symbol for, "Come talk to me!"

The response so far has been great! For some weird, inexplicable reason, the greater Cincinnati area is a hotbed of Obama support. During lunch the other day, this super-cute little girl and her mom came up to me. The little girl pointed to my button, yanked on her mom's coat and said, "Look, mom! Obama, that's what's up!!" And then we all shared knowing smiles. :-)

Fight the good fight!

:hug: Kukesa :hug:

[NJSecularist]

34. That is incredible. Your dedication is admirable. n/t

[VolcanoJen]

37. The Obama campaign has helped millions of us connect with new friends.

The thing I'll always remember about this campaign is the fantastic group of people I met in Cincinnati while working for him. Amazing how you can live in a relatively large city for years and never know that there are others, everywhere, who agree with you.

The campaign brought us all together.... and we're just fortunate that we live in a tri-state area bordering two states (IN and KY) yet to vote. So, we get to keep on organizing. It's more fun than it is work. It's more of an excuse to play with friends than dedication, were I to be honest. :-)

[NJSecularist]

48. Time goes so fast.

Sooner or later it'll be November and this entire process is going to end. That is why we all need to enjoy these next few months instead of bickering. I am glad to see you are doing that. You sound like you are having a ball, and I don't blame you. I've never considered canvassing work, it's just too much fun. ;)

[VolcanoJen]

50. I'll tell you one thing....

... I may be an ObamaGirl, but I, for one, do NOT want to see this campaign end!

Hillary should stay in, and I don't really buy the "she's hurting the party" crap. It's the most exciting election of our lifetimes, and I think it's good for America (parties be damned) that all fifty states get a look-see at our candidates.

Canvassing kinda blows sometimes, you're right. But at least the weather's getting nicer, and rural Kentucky/Indiana is just gorgeous in the springtime, much prettier than Ohio's blustery late winter!

[housewolf]

16. His campaign has been saying if he comes in within 10 pts

they'll consider it a win.

The delegates will be split and she won't be able to gain much.

[Teaser]

21. No.

.

[RBInMaine]

23. GOOD REPLIES FOLKS. THANKS.

[Botany]

25. NAFTA = Hillary

Lots of blue collar voters

Snipergate = Hillary lots of vets

It depends on how nasty he wants to get.

[VolcanoJen]

30. Good Point! It's important to mention here that Hillary's big NAFTA lie helped her win Ohio.

Cat's out of the bag for Pennsylvania and Indiana. :-)

[Botany]

36. I used to live there ..... lots of vets too and the sniper story will not play

Although, sadly lots of people who don't like blacks live there ... Also it looks
like a bunch of "Rush People" registered as dems to vote for Hillary too.

Obama needs to rough on Hillary in PA in his ads and his speeches.

[VolcanoJen]

42. Limbaugh Effect in PA

Do you really think it will take? Since they had to register Dem like, four weeks before the primary, I wonder. Sure, a few thousand might have done that. But remember, in OH and TX, the negatives really hadn't hit Hillary yet. It was surely a lot easier for a DittoHead to register as "Dem for a Day" and vote in a sort-of crime of passion.

But after TuzlaGate, and the tax returns, and the NAFTA lie... do you really see all that many of them having the stomach to pull the trigger and, for the rest of their lives, having to tell their buddies on the barstools, "Why, I ain't never voted for no Democrat! Except, for that one time, when I voted for Hillary Clinton."

I have my doubts. I don't think the Limbaugh Effect will be as damaging as it was in the open primary states like mine.

[AllentownJake]

28. Its called managing expectations

Rope a Dope

Obama and his advisors are geniuses....They have convinced the MSM that PA is Hillary country. This puts her at the disadvantage. She has to win.

He has also spent the past 3 weeks making a stop here and there at PA and than going to other states forcing Hillary to take her lingering cash bleeding campaign and do the same because she can't risk him running up the score in NC and IN while she's running around PA talking to people who supposedly already support her.

Watch him...I bet he makes a strong play for the state now. Forcing her to spend ungodly amounts of money to keep it and than he will destroy her in Indiana and NC because we all know she's going broke. Without money you can't campaign effectively and she's got the up hill battle in NC and IN.

[VolcanoJen]

33. Check out the Obama "Terrible Towels"

The Pennsylvania Push is on! Great photo of him with Franco Harris and Jerome "The Bus" Bettis in Pittsburgh today!

[zulchzulu]

38. Polls have Obama closing with 10% with 4 weeks to go

The Clinton team is not going to have a good month in April.

The tax returns, which are scheduled to be released near April 15, are going to stir up a storm and hammer away at the Clintons from all sides. This is why they are trying to stir up the fake Wright issue before this bomb hits them broadside.

If they don't release their records, they will be trashed for that too.

Bill is also back on the trail for their version of the battle of Valley Forge in Pennsylvania. He will overstep like he did earlier. He is a trouble magnet.

The polls are getting close and Obama is loaded for bear with money and more endorsements to come. Hillary Clinton's campaign is running on fumes.

Obama will pull out a victory in Pennsylvania by 2-5% when April 22 comes around. Hillary Clinton will soon have no other choice by concede.

[RBInMaine]

40. Will be TOUGH for him to win with her machine help, but he should get pretty close.

[PseudoIntellect]

47. Wow, if that happens, HRC would have just about no hope of victory.

I doubt it, though. Obama couldn't quite catch up in OH or TX.

[Life Long Dem]

39. Population vote for obama in PA n/t

[mckeown1128]

51. He won't win...

On MSNBC.. someone described PA as Pittsburg and Philidelphia with Alabama in the middle. The demo's aren't good for him. All he can hope for is a loss of less then 20%.

[RBInMaine]

52. If good trends continue and he does what he needs to do, he can close it to single digits.

[mckeown1128]

55. That would be great... the superdelegates would get into

fights over who gets to endorse Obama first.

[ecstatic]

54. Tough NAFTA and Bosnia ads would do the trick

But I don't know if Obama's up to another psychotic episode from Mrs. "Shame on you!" Clinton.

[VolcanoJen]

65. Gawd, really

When you think about it, Ohio and Texas were really f'd up. We got the full Kitchen Sink treatment. Shame on you, 3 AM, full-on Saturday Night Live treatment, "The skies will open," Somali garb Drudge photo, Barack Hussein Obama, "I was always against NAFTA" lie, CanadaGate, what have you. All in about two weeks.

Pennsylvania feels markedly different to me.