North Carolina County Projections based on Demographic Characteristics

[usregimechange]

Past projections

As some of you know, I have been making county level election projections about upcoming elections using census maps/data. If you have been following these you will remember that all of my Mississippi projections were 100% accurate:

Mississippi projections:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4994953&mesg_id=4994953

Pennsylvania projections:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5088717

Indiana projections:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5219177

Today, I have turned my attention to the state of North Carolina. Below are my projections and a county-level analysis of North Carolina:




Population




Mecklenburg County North Carolina, which contains Charlotte, has the highest population density at 1,322.2 persons per square mile. It also contains the most people at 827,445.


Wake County, home of Raleigh, has the second highest total population at 786,522 and a density of 754.6 person per square mile.

New Hanover and Durham County have slightly higher population densities than Wake county but only because they contain fewer square miles. Nevertheless, they contain significant populations: New Hanover 182,591 and Durham 246,896. Guilford County has 451,905 people with a density of 648.8. Other counties with significant populations include Forsyth County has 332,355 people, Cumberland County 299,060, and Gaston County 199,397.


Education



Orange County has a massive percentage of educated individuals, 51.5% have a Bachelors degree or higher. Orange county "is home to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the flagship institution of the University of North Carolina System" (Wiki). Clearly, this is prime Obama territory.

Wake County is also a part of NC's Research Triangle with 43.9% with a Bachelors or higher and Meredith College, North Carolina State University, Peace College, Saint Augustine's College, Shaw University, and Wake Technical Community College.

Durham county is home to Duke University and North Carolina Central University and has 40.1% with a Bachelors degree or higher. Obama will win this county easily as it also significantly young with only 9.4% of its population being 65 and older.

All other counties with more than 30% with a Bachelors or higher we projected for Obama. The state average is 22.5%.


African American population



The average African American population for NC is 21.7%. Counties with more than 30% African American populations have been called for Obama since such counties in a democratic primary would contain abut 50% minimum black voters who have been going to Obama by very large margins.

Bertie County has the highest percentage of Blacks at 62.5% but contains a small population of 19,094. Other counties with high concentrations of African Americans in NC include: Hertford County (62.2% Black, 23,581 people), Edgecombe County (57.3% Black, 53,964 people), and Northampton County (58.5% Black, 21,247 people).


Elderly population



Moore County, in central NC, has a high concentration of elderly citizens but I was uncomfortable projecting this county for Clinton due to it also having a significant percentage of educated people. However, counties with high populations of elderly citizens have resulted in a number of Clinton projections.

Polk County has the highest percentage of elderly citizens at 23.0%. Counties with elderly population percentages in excess of 20% have been called for Clinton. The state average is 12.2%.


Caucasian population

The general rule is that west NC is where the white population is and east NC, absent the coastal counties, is where the Black population is. Counties in excess of 96% have been projected for Clinton.




2004 election results




Conclusion

These projections are not meant to predict the election but to give the reader a better idea where candidate strongholds can be expected to be as well as the geopolitical landscape of the state. They also can not take into account, like polling data, turnout and many other factors that can swing elections. However, the cutoffs are high enough that we can reasonably expect the counties to go for the candidates they are projected for.

[gateley]

1. This is amazing -- and really interesting! Thank you!!

(Johnston County resident)

[usregimechange]

2. Thanks, not sure how your county will go, it is young but also mostly uneducated...

Good lot of people though...

[gateley]

4. And it was pretty RED last time -

which is why I've only seen one Obama bumper sticker (no Hillary so far, though)...

[usregimechange]

5. You would think all the AA folks would swing more of the counties blue...

[gateley]

7. According to your map,

my county isn't all that black. And aside from that, a friend of mine who works at with the State Dem Party has told some stories about how blacks are treated at some of the precincts (not well), so maybe there isn't a big black turnout historically. I'm hoping that with Obama on the ticket, it will encourage more AAs to go to the polls this time.

[UALRBSofL]

14. OP thanks for working on the graphs

That said, NC is my biggest worry for Clinton. I was trying to figure out what we could do to get the vote out for Hillary. I believe we may have to lower ourselves to lie, cheat and bribe the voters, and, possibly double count several Clinton votes.

[usregimechange]

32. Anything to win...

[usregimechange]

13. Adding the legend for the projections map...

[Nitrogenica]

3. Thanks

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

6. Bill campaigned in 3 cities in NC today, Clintons working NC hard

I don't know how good their grassroots is, but the Clintons plan to
be in NC each week before the election.

We have early voting, so they are probably going to drop some race bombs
soon.

There's alot of Limpball fans here too.

[gateley]

8. Heard on the local radio today

that Clinton has 3 offices set up now, Obama 13 -- but Clinton plans on matching that soon.

I also heard them discuss attending a Clinton function today, and they reported that her supporters are very enthusiastic and committed.

I didn't know we had early voting, but since I live right next door to my polling place, I'll prob wait until the day. Plus, I enjoy saying "no thank you" to the republicans who hang outside and pass out PROPAGANDA! :7

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

24. make sure you are registered to vote, dates for early voting et

go to www.ncvoter.net

[gateley]

26. Thanks -- I'm registered!

I double checked just to be sure! :hi:

[usregimechange]

11. Do you know which cities?

[grantcart]

9. great as always

please add legend for colors Obama/Clinton top map

[usregimechange]

12. Damn, I forgot to add it, now I can't edit...

[usregimechange]

19. Ok, I know how to do it, change the pic and saved it to where the link address is the same

[Ysabel]

10. k and r and thank you again this is very helpful (n/t)...

[Arkana]

15. North Carolina doesn't count! It's a red state! It's got activists

and black people in it!

Whew, sorry about that. I was just trying to channel the Hillary supporters' reaction.

[usregimechange]

17. I hope that some day we can add NC, we should do better here...

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

25. our straight ticket voting hurts us on Pres vote - straight ticket doesn't count for Pres

this bizarre exception gives us the highest undervote for president in the
entire country.

I wish we'd do away with straight ticket voting entirely, or else
eliminate all of the exceptions to the rule.

[angie_love]

16. Thanks. you're always helpful

[Buzz Clik]

18. Thanks. Great analysis.

I am very familiar with the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Area. It's a study in amazing contrasts.

[quantass]

20. Impressive!

[mmonk]

21. Thanks.

It looks like we (Obama people) have the high density areas of my state. Should be interesting though.

[usregimechange]

22. Yep, I don't see Hillary winning in NC or even coming close

[malik flavors]

23. Does N.C. have an open primary?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

27. 'unaffiliated" can vote in either Dem or GOP primary

But if you are registered as Dem, you have to vote in Dem,
if registered as GOP, you have to vote in GOP.

Unaffiliated can choose which one.

Note: It is at the discretion of the polical parties as to whether
the unaffiliated can vote in their primaries.

Usually they allow this, and good thing since about 20% are unaffiliated.

[mmonk]

29. Not on the Democratic side.

Independents can vote on the republican side only during primaries.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

28. Limpballs is pulling back on Operation Chaos for North Carolina

he said he was getting alot of calls from local GOP that this would mess
up their primary - several impt state contests including gubernatorial race
in the GOP primary.

So we may actually see "unaffiliated" voting for Obama.

[ms liberty]

30. KR&B, Thanks for this info...I'm in NC...

Alexander County here: one of those small, very rural, poor, less educated counties; but we were only pink on the 04 results chart. We democrats are outnumbered, but not by too much, and there is a respectable number of independents. We sent Democrats to the state house and senate in '06, so there is hope for us.

[usregimechange]

31. Theres always hope!

[usregimechange]

33. Polls are showing this should be a big win for Obama, Clinton has to win what 65% here?

[woolldog]

34. I have a question!!

Green is Obama; Dark blue is Clinton; What is light blue????????

[usregimechange]

36. Sorry, I just now noticed your question. Light blue are all the counties that have

demographic characteristics that do not favor one candidate over the other significantly enough to call it either way.

[woolldog]

35. why don't you answer my question?

[tekisui]

37. Great work. One adjustment: Asheville

Asheville is a Progressive pocket, the largest city in the Western Mountains, and the county seat of Buncombe. Out of 125,000 in Buncombe, 80,000+ are in Asheville. Asheville will go to Obama, not a doubt in my mind.

It will probably turn Buncombe County to Obama, as well.

[usregimechange]

38. The city would have met my edu cutoffs but the county didn't, is their a college there?

[tekisui]

39. Yes, a small one-UNCA.

It may not met your cutoffs, I respect that. It is all Obama here. Lots of young voters, energized and very progressive.

[NC_Nurse]

40. Don't forget Boone, NC. Home of Appalachian State University!

Kicker of Michigan's ass this year! :D

ASU has a BIG campus - probably about 14-15,000.

We here in Chapel Hill have been busting ass. We have registered so many folks that the county
RAN OUT of forms. There supposed to get us more tomorrow, from what I heard. We tried neighboring counties too,
Durham, Wake, etc. Nobody had enough to give them to us. Barack is ROCKIN' UNC and our whole county!

[usregimechange]

41. You rule!

[usregimechange]

42. What county is Boone in?

[NC_Nurse]

43. Watauga. And thanks!

:hi:

[usregimechange]

45. Yep I called Watauga for Obama due to its high concentration of educated folks...

[NC_Nurse]

46. Oops, missed it. Cool. My kids are there.

:-)

[usregimechange]

47. I bet they are registered! Obamacrats?

[NC_Nurse]

48. Of course!

Many of the kids out there are volunteering and there's a BIG Obama contingent.

Ron Paul had some supporters for a while there, because they thought he'd legalize weed. :D

[KoKo]

44. NC, here...Kick and thanks for your work on this...n/t

[Tarheel_Dem]

49. Guilford County here, that is a lot of work, and very much appreciated

I'm so envious of you tech savvy people. Guilford County belongs to Obama! :woohoo: