Real Clear Polls: Obama beats Clinton by 4.2%: Mcain over C by 1.2%: O over M by .9%

[powergirl]

Notice that Clinton's best numbers CONSISTENTLY come from FOX NEWS. These are all great for Obama!!

RealClearPolitics Poll Averages SM


Democratic Presidential Nomination Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 03/18 to 03/28 46.0% 41.8% Obama +4.2%
Gallup Tracking 03/26 - 03/28 50% 43% Obama +7.0%
Rasmussen Tracking 03/25 - 03/28 48% 42% Obama +6.0%
NBC/WSJ 03/24 - 03/25 45% 45% Tie
Pew Research 03/19 - 03/22 49% 39% Obama +10.0%
FOX News 03/18 - 03/19 38% 40% Clinton +2.0%


McCain vs. ClintonPoll Date Clinton (D) McCain (R) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/15 to 03/28 44.8% 46.0% 6.8% McCain +1.2%
Rasmussen Tracking 03/25 - 03/28 40% 51% 9% McCain +11.0%
Gallup Tracking 03/23 - 03/28 44% 48% 3% McCain +4.0%
NBC/WSJ 03/24 - 03/25 44% 46% 5% McCain +2.0%
Pew Research 03/19 - 03/22 49% 44% 7% Clinton +5.0%
FOX News 03/18 - 03/19 46% 43% 11% Clinton +3.0%
CBS News 03/15 - 03/18 46% 44% 6% Clinton +2.0%


McCain vs. ObamaPoll Date Obama (D) McCain (R) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/15 to 03/28 45.2% 44.3% 7.8% Obama +0.9%
Rasmussen Tracking 03/25 - 03/28 43% 48% 9% McCain +5.0%
Gallup Tracking 03/23 - 03/28 44% 46% 4% McCain +2.0%
NBC/WSJ 03/24 - 03/25 44% 42% 7% Obama +2.0%
Pew Research 03/19 - 03/22 49% 43% 8% Obama +6.0%
FOX News 03/18 - 03/19 43% 44% 13% McCain +1.0%
CBS News 03/15 - 03/18 48% 43% 6% Obama +5.0%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
:woohoo:

[writes3000]

1. Very interesting - especially the Fox News detail. n/t

[MADem]

2. Rasmussen: Kerry 48% Bush 42%

Rasmussen Reports’ daily tracking poll finds Kerry with his biggest lead over President Bush since Kerry became the Democratic frontrunner:

Bush 42%
Kerry 48%
Other 5%
Not Sure 5%

Today’s result represents a nine-point net gain for Kerry since April 1. Rasmussen attributes the Kerry gain to the trouble in Iraq which is offsetting the good economic news.

http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/011446.html

[powergirl]

3. That's why I use Real Clear - since it has proved the most reliable

I agree that Rasmussen is pretty lame.

[MADem]

10. Well, RCP just does a conglomeration of polls, from Rasmussen to NBC/WSJ and others as well.

They do an "RCP average" of a whole bunch of polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

If you look at this graph, you see they had Kerry up in the earlier stages, and you see him crashing/burning in the last few months. That's Swiftboating for ya...!

[powergirl]

22. Again, that is why Real Clear is the best

because it reviews a variety of polling.

[MADem]

25. Probably the most accurate, at a moment in time, of the lot

but not predictive. No one has a crystal ball, unfortunately.

[apocalypsehow]

4. Did you bump your head, wake up, and think you were back in 2004?

What is the point of that post?

:shrug:

[MADem]

7. If you can't figure out the rather plain point, I'll leave you in puzzlement.

Did you listen to President Kerry's radio address yesterday....?

[apocalypsehow]

9. "the rather plain point" - Uh, I know you have "five degrees" and all, one of them "not American"

even! But when you post a reply to an OP the reply should be related in some way to that OP, even if tangentially. Your post is not. It really is that simple.

[MADem]

11. Because you apparently don't have even one degree, and certainly never took a

logic course, let me explain it to you, "PLAINLY" --because you are apparently easily discombobulated.

At around the same time as this most recent poll data was derived, four years ago, KERRY was the frontrunner.

And guess what? He didn't win.

That's the "rather plain point" you are unable to grasp.

Have a swell day, there, Skippy!

[apocalypsehow]

13. Uh-huh. When the response is all splutter, fallacy, and spleen, I know my point is spot-on.

You and your "five degrees" (one of them "not American" even!!!! :eyes:) keep on making yourself look absurd.

:rofl:

[MADem]

18. You keep thinking that Skippy, if it keeps you warm at night...! NT

[apocalypsehow]

20. Oh, I don't "think" it: I've dealt with enough academic poseurs in my life to pretty much *know* it.

n/t.

[MADem]

24. ,,, Getting pretty excited, there, Skippy!

:rofl:

[apocalypsehow]

27. Nah - there's nothing much to get excited about when dealing with a phony.

n/t.

[MADem]

29. ....

:rofl:

[apocalypsehow]

30. Those four little dots must be representative of your "degrees." Do you leave the fifth dot off

because your fifth degree is "not American"?

:sarcasm:

:rofl:

:eyes:

[MADem]

31. Keep it up, Skippy!

:rofl:

[apocalypsehow]

32. By the bye, why don't you list for our viewing pleasure the subjects your "five degrees" (including

the one that's "not American") are accredited in?

I'm sure we'd all be fascinated to see what you can make up on the fly and on such short notice...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[MADem]

33. Come on, one more, Skippy!!! One more!!! You can do it!

:applause:

[apocalypsehow]

34. It's always a beautiful thing to watch the perpetrator of a falsehood confirm it's status as bogus.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[MADem]

35. I win!

:applause: :applause: :applause:

[apocalypsehow]

36. Uh-huh. The Juvenalia Award, maybe...

:eyes:

[MADem]

40. Bwahahahaha!

:applause:

You're so predictable.

:rofl:

[apocalypsehow]

41. And you seem to be bored for a twelve-year old. Haven't you ever heard of myspace?

:shrug:

[MADem]

42. ! Please, DO go on! nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I Inferred From His Post That Polls In March For An Election In November Are Not Always Accurate

Predictors...

[apocalypsehow]

21. Well, the context suggested something different to me. To me, it is as if you or I posted an OP

titled "April showers bring May flowers," and the poster had replied "there was a drought in the spring of 1936." The two items are not congruous, particularly since historicity was not the point of the OP, and further knowing that that poster spams every thread he can find with negative slants on every story, article, poll and OP that seems to favor or support Senator Obama.

That was my take on the posters reply, and nothing posted so far in this thread has contradicted my initial opinion, or caused me to change it.

[GarbagemanLB]

5. Ah, so now polls don't matter. I'm sure you'd be posting this if all the polls showed Hillary up?

[MADem]

6. I don't consider them a be-all or an end all. And a victory margin of less than one percent is

total bullshit!

There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip, and overconfidence on either end of the spectrum is just foolish.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I Hope You'r e Not Going To Argue That A Difference Of Three Tenths Of A Percent Should Be

Determinative Because That Would Be Ridiculous...

If the difference was say, six or seven percent or more, I would say that was determinative...

[MADem]

12. Kerry led Bush by six points four years ago.... nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. That's A Somewhat Impressive Lead But Not Determinative

Hell, Dukakis led Bush Pere by seventeen points and lost by eight, Jimmy Carter led Gerald Ford by thirty three points and won by less than two, George Bush* led Al Gore by ten and lost the pop vote...

[MADem]

16. Well, upthread you said: If the difference was say, six or seven percent or more, I would say that

was determinative...

Just referencing your own quote, is all...!

You can find wider margins, too. He crashed and burned later on, but he had some profound swings in the interim...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. My Phrasing Was Inelegant

I should have said a six or seven point lead was somewhat impressive...

Oh, I wasn't surprised that Kerry lost... If you research my posts from the 04 campaign you will see I cautioned against over optimism...

[MADem]

26. I was in the same boat as you, rowing on the other oar....

I was hopeful but insistent that there had to be aggressive GOTV.

I did some, in my home state and NH, but I sensed that the "push" wasn't there. There was insufficient urgency, even at the end.

The GOP does that shit way better than we do....

[Mooney]

28. And this is good for Clinton how?

I understand that your saying that this early on the polls aren't a reliable barometer of who will win the general, but there's no getting around the fact that HRC is still polling behind Obama AND McCain. Poo-pooing Obama's polling right now is a valid point, but it still doesn't make any kind of case for HRC whatsoever. If anything, it makes it look like she has an even worse chance.

[kmsarvis]

38. GOOD POINT MOONEY!!!!

[Mooney]

39. Thank you.

Most of the criticisms of Obama's polling lately amounts to little more than "His polling is almost as shitty as Hillary's! Nanny nanny poo poo!"

If the sole purpose of that argument is to shit on Obama's polling, then that's one thing. But if it's supposed to be a pro-Hillary argument, then it has an inherent design flaw.

[samdogmom]

37. You do know that 2004 was another stolen election, right?

The polls were correct...they just didn't take into account that the machines could be hacked and that Ken Blackwell (Bush campaign committee, etc.) would be in charge of counting the Ohio votes.

For me the polls are interesting, but I want to know who's counting the votes and if it's become a bit harder to steal an election since the debacles in 2000 and 2004.

[TheDeathadder]

17. Remember when Real Clear Politics

Had shown on average if you added up all the polls Obama was set to win New Hampshire by 8%?

Yeah live by the polls - WooHoo!!

[margotb822]

23. Also noticed

That FL is red with either Dem candidate. Just saying...