Of the last ten Presidential elections, nine were won

[Occam Bandage]

by the party that completed its nomination process earliest.

In order for Hillary to take the popular-vote lead, she will have to win each remaining state by an average of 60%. She has won only one state by that margin--Arkansas, where she was the First Lady.

I've heard it said that "fear" is the reason Obama supporters want Hillary to drop. They're right, in a way. I am afraid--afraid of John McCain, who grows stronger every week Hillary continues her moribund campaign.

[joshcryer]

1. Your fears are baseless and unfounded.

And people accuse Hillary of "the politics of fear."

McCain is done. He has no chance. Which is one reason both continue to figh so incredibly hard.

[Occam Bandage]

5. "McCain is done."

What, exactly, makes you say that? He has the highest approval rating and lowest disapproval rating of any remaining candidate. He has the right-wing machine, which twice elected a smirking frat-boy with an IQ of 45 and a record of failure, squarely behind him. He has the media in his pocket. He has a legendary ability to connect with moderates and independents.

You're kidding yourself if you think that John McCain is going to be easy to beat.

[40ozDonkey]

10. It's like history can't repeat itself sooner for some people.

Yeah, let's all underestimate McCain again.

[joshcryer]

18. I've lived through 5 Presidential Elections.

I've seen what makes someone win or lose.

And sorry, McCain ain't it.

[Occam Bandage]

19. Every single election, Democrats seem to think, "oh, naw, this'll be a cakewalk."

'80: "Reagan's too old and out of touch. He's an actor. He's a joke."
'84: "Reagan's a failure, half-senile, and the laughingstock of the nation."
'88: "Bush is a weenie. He's a boring second banana. Nobody likes him."
'92: EXCEPTION: NOBODY THINKS WE CAN WIN. We fight for it. Shockingly, we win.
'96: See '92.
'00: "Bush is a coke-addled fratboy. He's an embarrassment. He can't even talk."
'04: "Bush is a miserable failure, a liar, and has wrecked our nation."


"This'll be a cakewalk."

[joshcryer]

25. We won in 00, and we were at war in 04.

As I said the only way John McCain wins is if a terrorist attack happens.

[Occam Bandage]

30. And we thought both would be a cakewalk. And at the end of both, GWB sat in the WH. But really,

keep underestimating Republicans. Keep counting them out. Keep thinking we don't have to worry about them. It's worked so well in the past.

[joshcryer]

32. I don't underestimate them, I merely recognize the change in perceptions.

People don't want an old fogey, they want a black guy or woman. Simple.

[Occam Bandage]

36. Your "recognition" is not backed by any opinion polling.

If the word of one anonymous marijuana leaf on the internet had any prophetic power, the world would be a much different place.

[joshcryer]

45. Meh, politics is a waste of time anyway.

[hisownpetard]

67. So, how do you like it here at DU?

[Historic NY]

72. And the first attack wasn't engineered?

[hisownpetard]

66. Exactly.

:hi:

[JackRiddler]

71. Sorry, but your list is bull...

I don't remember any of those that way. You are confusing the opinions of some Democrats (or of you) about the Republican candidates with what the obvious outlook was in each case.

'80, '84: Guaranteed Reagan victories, visible months in advance. The only chance would have been an October Surprise hostage release for Carter, and that probably wouldn't have changed the final result. Otherwise, forget it! America voted overwhelmingly for Reagan, twice. Sucks, doesn't it?

'88: Totally fixed for Bush, with assist from Dukakis (probably incompetence).

'92: Obvious Clinton win in the midst of a recession, with assist from Perot.

'96: ditto. You really

'00: Bush LOST.

'04: Totally fixed for Bush, with assist from Kerry (probably complicity).

McCain is one of the weakest candidates in 30 years, comparable most of all to Dole in '96.

Which doesn't mean it won't be fixed for him, or that racism won't cost it for Obama.

[joshcryer]

17. John McCain does not represent Historical Precedent.

You really must recognize how our elections are about these niggly little stupid ass things that have very little meaning. Regan won because he was a "movie star." Bill Clinton won on sound bites "Comeback Kid." GWB Jr won on "you could have a beer with him, he's likeable." And Obama will win because he's "the first black presidential nominee."

Yes, it's that fucking simple. It really really REALLY is.

The only way John McCain could possibly win is if another hugely bad terrorist attack happened. In which case it is irrelevant how this primary season would go.

[Occam Bandage]

26. "Yes, it's that fucking simple. It really really REALLY is."

You, my friend, are simple. The process is not.

[joshcryer]

31. OK. Our elections are about issues and policy decisions and so on.

Now explain to me the difference between Obama and Hillary on Health Care. You have 3 minutes as of this post.

YOU CANNOT DO IT.

[Occam Bandage]

33. ...

Hillary's plan is universal by way of mandates for private coverage, though she has not explained an enforcement mechanism. Obama's plan mandates children be covered, as enforcement is easier, but does not mandate adults purchase care. Both are virtually identical elsewhere.

Edit: "YOU CANNOT DO IT" indeed.

[Occam Bandage]

39. Could I get an apology for your disproven declaration of ignorance?

[joshcryer]

43. Why should I apologize?

It missed the biggest distinction between their policies, that they both have a national health insurer but because Obama's plan lacks mandates his national insurer must compete with the markets and rising costs. Hillary's national insurer does no such thing since anyone who gets a paycheck pays into it.

[Occam Bandage]

49. First, because you said "YOU CANNOT DO IT," and I did. Secondly, you just totally fucked up.

Hillary Clinton does not create a "national health insurer" that mandates payment into it. You've confused her plan with a single-payer health plan.

Hillary Clinton proposes mandates for private coverage, and expands tax breaks and federal subsidies to assist those that are having difficulty paying for it. Obama offers the same tax breaks and subsidies, but does not have a mandate, except for children. Neither create an insurer. And the cost problems from Obama's plan arise from vacuums in the risk pool, not from competition with the markets.

[joshcryer]

57. You are completely wrong, both plans utilize the Senate-like health insurer.

This is a fact. The point being that because Obama choses to keep things privatized he allows people to either not be insured, or pay into cheaper less reliable health insurers, hurting the Senate-like insurer, and preventing it from being as robust as it could be.

BOTH PLANS HAVE A NATIONAL INSURER, THIS IS FACT.

[Occam Bandage]

59. Yes, both plans do utilize our current national infrastructure. Hillary does not mandate

coverage under a national health insurer. Hillary only has a mandate for private coverage. Please stop self-pwning.

[roseBudd]

64. In elections the candidate with the most charisma wins

think about it

[gateley]

27. "The only way John McCain could possibly win is if another hugely bad terrorist attack happened"

Or if they make us THINK one will occur. Or give us one.

[joshcryer]

34. The American people won't fall for insinuations anymore.

It has to be the real freaking deal. And even then he's not guaranteed a win I don't think. He'd just have better odds.

[Occam Bandage]

41. We said that in '04, too.

[joshcryer]

44. 04 was an incumbant Presidency.

And in fact the anti-war candidates were ahead. It was apathy then. We don't have that now.

[Occam Bandage]

50. "It was apathy then. We don't have that now." vs. "McCain is done."

:crazy:

[joshcryer]

56. What? Are you trying to make up some inconsistancy?

Bush was an uncumbant. McCain is an old far, an old face, with old and tired rhetoric.

[Occam Bandage]

58. McCain is indeed old. So was Reagan. And frankly, you sound an awful lot like the people

who insisted that Reagan was nothing to worry about. "He's too old." "He's a joke." "He's half crazy." "We'll easily make up the difference in the polls once we get our house in order and start focusing on him."

[hisownpetard]

69. Whassamatta? "Bush was an uncumbant. McCain is an old far."

Sompin you dinna unnesten?

[surfermaw]

81. When Clinton ask in a republican stronghold campaign stop

Did you feel safe under my administration, the crowd almost raised the roof, with a yes. so I wouldn't count ont a tarrorist attack scaring any one , except make a few democrats go for Hillary.

[roseBudd]

63. Obama will win because people are drawn to him when they hear him speak

[gateley]

14. McCain was "done" a few months ago too, remember? nt

[hisownpetard]

65. Do not underestimate the stupidity of the Republican base.

True, McCain is senile and needs a "minder" to stand within 30" of him at all times.
True, he will be Bush III.
True, he doesn't remember what his 'position' is on contraception.
True, he traded in his principles for a neck-snuggle with Bush 43.
True, all the idiotic things he's said about staying in Iraq another 100 years, etc., etc., etc.

However, the Republicans will do ANYTHING to stay in power - even vote for a senile, doddering fool like McCain.

McCain is not "done" until a Democrat has been elected, sworn in and installed in the White House.

Do not underestimate the stupidity of the Republican base!!

[phrigndumass]

2. If it helps, I think either Obama or Clinton will win ...

... it'll just be a bit of a squeaker for Senator Clinton.

:hi:

[proud2BlibKansan]

3. But she will be ready day one and at 3 am!!

And she can dodge sniper fire!!

[lapfog_1]

47. This is the only guy I know that can "dodge bullets baby!"

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3k98n_phil-hellmuth-i-can-dodge-bullets-b_extreme

Course, he was really upset when we played a hand... I had AK and he had a KQ... nobody made anything with the board and he made a moderate move on the turn card... and I called. Then he moved "all in" on the river (the board paired) and I called!

After the showdown where my AK no pair won, he stood up and screamed at me "Do you know who I am?!".

I simply answered that "yeah, I know who you are and, furthermore, I knew what hand you had".

Hillary reminds me a lot of Phil Hellmuth, that arrogance and sense of entitlement.

[enigmatic]

4. McCain isn't going to win

His own party hates him, and his supporters has as much enthusiasm for him as they do for Yakov Smirnoff's career.

[still_one]

13. not true. He was never supposed to win his parties nomination in the first place

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE him, or the free pass he is getting from the MSM

Depending who he chooses as his VP could really make this tense

When you look at the polls of mccain against either of our Democratic candidates, in Ohio and Pennsylvania he is ahead. That is pathetic, especially Ohio who has been literally raped by the republicans both economically, and in loss of people from the Iraq War

Are they really that stupid?

[enigmatic]

24. Dukakis was up by double digits in 1988 at this time

Polls for the GE at this junction mean zero. One we get out of the conventions, then the election begins. This is like Spring Training.

[still_one]

29. I agree the polls mean very little, I am just saying I would not underestimate

the stupidity of the American public guided by the MSM who have thus far given him a free pass

[enigmatic]

38. I have faith in both Obama or Hillary

Both of them are fighters; that much is certain, no matter who you support. They won't back down.

[still_one]

46. I know THEY won't back down, I just don't want people to be over confident /nt

[gateley]

21. "His own party hates him"....

That's what's been said all along, so I wonder how it is he ended up winning the nomination? Especially since his campaign was essentially broke...

[enigmatic]

35. Because the GOP candidates were the worst in the last 40 years

Romney was a liar/flip-flopper, Thompson was essentially dead, Huckabee was another fundie that had a smidgen of a soul (which the fundies hate), Ron Paul is crazy etc. If this was 2000 (or even 1996), McCain would have never lasted beyond Iowa.

[gateley]

54. But it's NOT 2000, and he IS their nominee,

so we can't dismiss him out of hand.

[still_one]

6. There are only a few more states left, and I say let it run their course

What has hurt her campaign the worst, is Hillary

However, at the end of the primaries, whoever is ahead in delegates and number of votes, then I would want the candidate behind to step down and NOT take it to the convention

If that happens, we will lose

[Occam Bandage]

8. "Their course" ends June 22. That's three more months John McCain gets a free ride.

[bookman]

15. May 6th.

Pretty much sealed by then.

[still_one]

16. I hear you, and that is why it is more imperitive that the campaigns start to

focus their attacks on mccain

[Mz Pip]

7. This year will

have to be an exception to the rule. This is a pretty amazing year and it's not following conventional wisdom.

McCain is old, tired and offers nothing new to the political discourse. Hopefully we can start focusing on him within a few weeks.

[TheDeathadder]

9. Really?

Well every won knew Gore would beat Bradley, so Gore was pretty much the democratic nominee well before the Republicans had theirs.

Bush and McCain was far more ugly than Clinton and Obama and Bush went on to win. This rhetoric that the longer it goes the better it is for McCain is pure rhetoric and nothing else.

The GOP on the state party level is broke and still neck deep with scandals. They have already informed McCain he was on his own.

So why don't we stop this whole "Save Obama Stop The Primary!!" It's just talk talk talk and you're giving America a headache.

[bookman]

11. She can't win

Check out..


Slate's Delegate Counter
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/


Give her 60 percent in each remaining contest.
Obama still leads
1639 to 1595

And she will not get 60% in all, if any, states.

[gateley]

12. McCain has already begun airing his Presidential commercials. nt

[cboy4]

20. I'll put you down on my list Occam as yet another

Obama supporter who wants to stop the election before all of the votes have been counted.

I wonder where we've heard that before?

[Occam Bandage]

22. Tell me, of the primaries that have been fought all the way to the convention (both parties),

how many ended up in a general-election victory?

[cboy4]

40. So just to confirm. I should keep you on my list of

Obama supporters who want to stop the election before all of the votes are counted?

That's fine. I just want to make sure my list is accurate.

For the record, I'm in favor of counting all of the votes . . always.

[JayFredMuggs]

75. Count away, and fulfill your fantasy

While John McCain continues to gain ground, let's make sure you have your fantasy fulfilled, after all, YOUR needs are more important than the nation's. Just like Hillary's!

[cbayer]

55. 1932 - FDR

There hasn't been a brokered convention in either party since then.

[TheDonkey]

23. She CANNOT win. It is virtually impossible without destroying the party

time for DU leadership to realize this and endorse Obama and help end this nonsense.

Hillary is trying to run for a VP spot or a "backup" plan but not for President at this time.

[cboy4]

42. What does DU leadership have to do with any of this?

LOL!!

[Raejeanowl]

60. My Thought Exactly

DU's a lot of things, but it doesn't represent the entire Democratic Party.

[joshcryer]

28. A reminder, your own candidate said she should still be able to run.

So I imagine he's not afraid of little old McCain.

[gateley]

37. I don't care how long Hillary stays in,

or who the eventual nom is.

The bottom line is WE CANNOT GET COMPLACENT.

We need to start fighting the Reps NOW, even if it's running generic anti-McCain/Rep spots. When the nom is decided, s/he can step in and personalize it.

[depakid]

48. Of the last 10 elections, 6 involved incumbant presidents

:think:

Only one of them had a serious challenger.

[Occam Bandage]

51. Yep. Incumbents do enjoy the same advantages that John McCain is enjoying at the moment.

In fact, he may be in a stronger position than most incumbents, since he doesn't have to make this election a referendum on the last four years.

[cbayer]

52. I am not sure where you are getting this info.

The last brokered convention to yield a nominee that went on to win the general election was the Democratic convention in 1932 that nominated Franklin Roosevelt. In addition, I would note that this candidate won the GE.

There have been no brokered conventions in either party since then. You say the parties that complete their nomination process earlier have a better history of winning overall and I would sure appreciate a link to where I can see that information.

Thanks.

[Blue_In_AK]

53. Of the last 43 presidential elections

none were won by an African-American or a woman. I guess we should just give up. :shrug:

[JayFredMuggs]

77. Yea of little faith

Must a multi-racial, dual gendered America always be ruled by white men over 50?


How many black people and all races of women voted in the first 150 years of our history?

[Blue_In_AK]

83. Forgot my sarcasm smilie. :-)

My point was that since so many aspects of this election are out of the ordinary, the OP shouldn't be concerned that we didn't have our nominee before the Republicans.

[LiveLiberally]

61. One of the myths about history....

is that it repeats itself. In fact, it never does, and the "lessons" we learn from history are often completely inapplicable to the present (e.g., the Maginot Line for W.W. II military buffs) This election is unprecedented in so many ways that I personally put little store in comparisons to past elections.

full disclosure: I am a professional historian who makes a living studying, among other things, past elections. And no, I don't claim to have any special insights because of this. Historians, overall, are lousy prognosticators.

[roseBudd]

62. Unfortunately our oppenent has a personality, I was hoping for Mitt

Than god he is is only 5'7"

[anonymous171]

68. Me too. He's like Mr. Rogers with a different haircut.

Would've been easy for Obama to take down.

[roseBudd]

82. and Mormom underware

[RC]

70. Lissin Up People!

1. McCain is a shape shifter. He will do or say whatever it takes for McCain to get what he/they want at the time.

2. McCain has no soul. He will do or say whatever it takes for McCain to get what he/they want at the time.

3. McCain is a repug. We all know how honest, trustworthy and above board they have been for 35 some years. He/they will say/do whatever it takes to continue the current crimes against humanity.

With the rampant election fraud across this country and the so called news media campaigning for him and against, most likely Obama, McCain will be harder to beat than it would appear on the surface.

It's hard to believe, but McCain is the 'cleanest' they could come up with and still be able to control. Who knows what deals were struck behind the closed and locked doors of the White House.

Unless he dies before the inauguration, McCain will be hard to overcome.

[Pab Sungenis]

73. Of the last twelve Presidential elections, six were won

by the candidate with less "experience."

2000, 1992, 1980, 1976, 1968, 1960

[JayFredMuggs]

74. Well, you bring up some good information

But Americans, by a wide majority do NOT want any more years of war in Iraq, nor do they want McCain to be the President, many Americans will vote for McCain, but as long as Hillary accepts defeat, and moves us forward, she will be remembered as a woman who could have been President, but thought the future of America was more important than her own personal ambitions, I look forward to that day!

[anigbrowl]

76. Relax...there hasn't been a successful bald candidate since Eisenhower.

Also, Obama wins in the height stakes.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

78. You know what?

I believe if Hillary had not compared herself to McCain, I wouldn't have minded the primary going further. Prior to that: McCain didn't have a leg to stand on in Nov. She gave credence to his candidacy. That is why I have been wanting it to stop. She shouldn't be building him up, at all.

[surfermaw]

79. North Carolina has a lots of ind. registered

In North Carolina dem...v for dem.
rep. vote for republicans, but Ind..can vote for either, and we have a lots of old bigots that are against Bush but want register with the democrats because of the people we have in the party, they just might go with Hillary, in Bill Campaign meet up in my area a republican strong hold, when he ask the question how many knew someone without health ins, it seemed almost every hand went up, I know there were some republicans there.

off now to see the University of North Carolina play basketball ,they are coming on now.

[surfermaw]

80. Bill Clinton didn't get the nomination until June, he lost Iowa and then went on

things are a changing, especially in North Carolina, we have so many transplants, so who know what will happen, I do know lots of republicans changed to Ind. I feel like that vote might go Hillary,

[Freedom Train]

84. So what? There's nothing saying that trend can't be broken this year

I'm not seeing McCain gaining any ground while we keep up or established process. If anything, Democrats are getting twice the media coverage if not more, and that's hardly a bad thing.

I wouldn't worry too much about trends, because this is the year for trends to be broken. It will be the first election since 1960 that a Senator will win the presidency. And (God willing) it will be the first time ever a woman or African American will be elected. Or are you telling me that since the last 55 presidential elections have all been won by old white guys, that this is how it's gonna be this time around too?