Obama's Impasse

[emilyg]

This post by Anna Shane is the most illuminating effort I have yet read on Obama's campaign strategy. She goes right to the heart of his campaign and exposes the tissue and arteries. And finally I understand why doing nothing for this candidate is a plus. Her clarity on what motivates the Obama campaign deserves to be read far and wide.

crossposted from http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/1513 8 and recommended by Gabrielle Droz


Obama's Theoretical Impasse: by Anna Shane

My argument is that Mr. Barack Obama is following a plan to become president that is both clear and consistent, which makes it possible to understand why he's done what he's done, as well as to predict what he'll do next. If his plan to win the nomination succeeds, however, his plan to `transform' America must fail, unless he makes a mid-course correction and runs on his theory and gives up trying to paint Hillary as a "monster," and bully her out of the race.

more... http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/29/134039/323

[ossman]

1. good greif.

[JayFredMuggs]

2. The raw vote will dictate

Choose to be insulted by the remarks of a campaign staffer, or a former minister, choose to lose whichever way makes you feel better.

Your point?

[goldcanyonaz]

3. Painting Clinton as a monster has been many of his supporters montra.

[JayFredMuggs]

6. The word is "mantra"

And NO, Hillary Clinton lying about her arrival in Bosnia, or wherever, under sniper fire basically shot herself in the foot.

Go on supporting a liar as long as you want, when you are ready to admit that a smart person who is running ahead of her happens NOT to be a white woman, than we can talk.

Please list the times Obama has insulted Hillary, asked her to leave the campaign, or taken a swipe at her minister, and the color of her skin, and her experience in elective office......list them all out OK? Then I'll respond with the times Hillary has done that to Obama.

Fair?

[Catherina]

9. ?

[JayFredMuggs]

13. Nice cartoon!

I think the fact that Hillary officiated over Easter Bunny egg hunts on the lawn of the White House should be kept out of the 3 AM phone call debate... don't you?

[leftofcool]

4. This and other things will be hitting the news this week

[grantcart]

5. The ridiculous premise is that Obama is inducing a 'hate Hillary' campaign

He is ignoring her and she is swiftboating, Judasing and Bill Clintoning his campaign.


The longer that the campaign goes on the better for Obama. Yesterday they opened a small volunteer center in NC and had 1000 people jam to get in. He has added another million donors since he essentially cinched the campaign.


The longer the campaign goes on the more donors he gets the more people sign on and the better he looks juxtaposition to the fumbling campaign of Hillary Clinton.


Hillary Clinton is giving a big assist to Obama by waging a silly campaign with guys like Carivelle and Davis acting like pit dogs.

Hopefully she won't have a complete meltdown before PA so he can keep the drama up a little bit longer.

[DemGa]

7. It's been a constant assault on Hillary's character from BO

All the while playing the victim and claiming to be above it all -- a disgusting charade.

[JayFredMuggs]

10. Your post is so self-contradictory and makes no sense

Either he is "above it all" or he isn't!

He merely points out how undesirable she is, and how her attacks on him and her record make her unelectable.

What's wrong with that? To me, that sounds like honesty over lies over landing in sniper fire.

[anonymous171]

ATTENTION: I HEREBY PREDICT THAT HILLARY WILL CRY THIS WEEK!

[susankh4]

17. A good cry would do you good as well.

Maybe you wouldn't be so condescending after it.

A little compassion goes a long way.

[anonymous171]

19. I was just predicting an event based on her campaign manuevers this week.

They were positioning Hillary as the beleaguered female warrior fighting the sexist overlords of the democratic party. The one thing that could really help her would be an increase in woman support. That's partly why I believe Obama dispelled the rumors about wanting her to drop out.

[susankh4]

8. He does seem to be changing his tone a bit this weekend.

I mean... now "she can stay in the race as long as she wants to."

Nice of him to grant her permission, I think. Not that she needed it. But, his followers needed the message to tone it down.

[Tropics_Dude83]

11. You only support Hillary because

She is a woman Susan, right? And because you want to see a woman president in your lifetime.

Let's be honest. That's the only reason HRC is as far as she is.

[susankh4]

14. She is a hero of mine!

I have followed her political career for two decades. She has acted with valor and compassion in the face of great odds.

Like Ms. Maya Angelou, I support Hillary because I know her and I am proud of her. And I believe in what she can do for this nation.

But... ya know... even if I only wanted to vote for her because she is a woman, that would be my perogative.

[JayFredMuggs]

27. How about voting for the person who unites Americans?

Or is that NOT something you consider important?

Hillary has her strengths, but none of them seem to be uniting Americans, she is as divisive as GWB, IMO.

So why support divisiveness for four more years? Because she's done some nice things? So have millions of other women.

None of THEM have the name Clinton associated with them, and none of them are running for Prez.

Again, the question, why Hillary now?

[JayFredMuggs]

12. Tone it down?

She's losing, and has 8 or so Democratic Senatorial and gubenatorial rivals who have pulled out as they lost, she stays in for what purpose?

Tell us why a liar about her experience under sniper fire in landing in a foreign nation should be nominated over an honest man who acknowledges that Hillary is free to make a fool of herself.

[FrenchieCat]

15. And I'm as glad that she's not saying that he could be her Veep....

when she was in 2nd place. Nice for her to have thought of that. :eyes:

[Drunken Irishman]

48. Funny, because I don't recall Obama ever asking her to drop out.

Ever.

Maybe one of his supporters did, but Obama himself did not. So he hasn't changed his tone one bit the past month. He's said, on a few times, Clinton should stay in as long as she wants to.

[JoFerret]

51. Very patronising

Neither candidate can win sufficient elected delegates in the remaining primaries to secure the nomination, and so the battle has moved to winning over the superdelegates. Obama's bogus "race-baiter" strategy is one of the main reasons he has come this far, and it is affecting the process now. But by deliberately inflaming the most destructive passions in American politics, the strategy has badly divided and confused Democrats, at least for the moment. And having done so, it may well doom the Democrats in the general election.

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/currents/20080330_Obama_...

[cali]

52. Except that it's a lie to say he's changed his tone, dear

He's never called for her to step aside. Not even close. He simply repudiated what his supporter, Senator Leahy, said. And anyone who thinks that Leahy was sent out to say any such thing, is simply ignorant

[FrenchieCat]

16. One person's opinion does not a fact make.

It is easy to have a distorted view far from the reality that the majority sees. And I frankly understand it. But, it doesn't make it accurate, cause it ain't.

[emilyg]

18. You're entitled to your opinion.

[FrenchieCat]

21. And what makes me happier, is that my opinion is bolstered by a majority of

progressives out there. Elizabeth Drew's article is what the Superdelegates will be reading....and I have excerpted a few paragraphs, but the article chronicles the entire primaries as they happened. Drew is long known for making exacting political observation. Read this article, and you will know what "normal" progressives are thinking, instead of some Blogspot.

Volume 55, Number 6 · April 17, 2008

Molehill Politics

By Elizabeth Drew

In this fight, the Clinton camp is the more aggressive of the two, and it's adept at what might be called molehill politics: making a very big deal in the press about something that's a very small deal—such as a single word in a mailing or a slip-up by an aide. Clinton's strategists pounce on whatever opportunity presents itself to attack Obama, and try to knock him off his own message, and his stride. Clinton's approach resembles her tactics in the White House, in which her inclination was to attack (which caused a number of problems, and was one of the reasons her health care bill was defeated). The Obama camp has sometimes been slow, and even reluctant, to respond, because if he attacks her personally (which the Clinton campaign would like him to do), he's not Barack Obama anymore. Moreover, Obama takes care not to come across as the "angry black"—a stereotype he does not fit, but that could be imposed upon him by others.


It's been long said among politicians that "the Clintons will do anything to win." Unfortunately, they are increasingly proving the point. As the primaries in Texas and Ohio approached, the Clinton campaign, which has a tendency to announce its next steps, said that it would use a "kitchen sink" strategy against Obama—and so it did: with the famous and apparently effective "red phone" ad questioning his fitness to be commander in chief; and in frequent and heavy-handed conference calls to reporters (an innovation), in which Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson makes charges against Obama, raises questions about him, or moves "goal posts" designating what Obama has to do to win. (Obama "has to win Pennsylvania," which few think is likely.) This propaganda makes its way onto cable and other news outlets. But where does, or should, a "kitchen sink" strategy belong in a presidency?

Hillary Clinton is employing conventional politics, while Obama is trying to create a new kind of politics. Similarly, as they respond to the country's desire for change, they have very different concepts of what "change" means: briefly, for Obama it means changing the very zeitgeist of Washington, creating a new way to get things done by building coalitions that transcend longstanding political divisions. For Clinton it means passing bills—though sometimes she has suggested that it means electing a woman president. ("I embody change," she said in a debate in New Hampshire.)

Way more......
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21231

[msallied]

44. That was a fantastic article. n/t

[ProSense]

20. Hillary's impasse

reality:

Actual Popular Vote Total
Obama 13,355,239 (+717,276)
Hillary 12,637,963

FL
Obama 576,214
Hillary 870,986
Total votes 1,447,200

Popular Vote (w/FL)
Obama 13,931,453 (+422,504)
Hillary 13,508,949


MI
Clinton 328,151
Uncommitted 237,762

Popular Vote (w/FL and MI)
Obama 13,931,453 (+94,195)
Clinton 13,837,258

Let's say Obama got the uncommitted MI votes

Popular Vote (w/FL and MI)
Obama 14,169,215 (+331,957)
Clinton 13,837,258

In these scenarios Obama is clearly ahead, even with no MI votes going to him.

Even if there were a revote in MI and FL she would not get more than 58% of the MI and 60% of the FL vote as indicated above. In fact, she stands to lose ground.

She can't win!


Obama isn't painting Hillary as a monster, Hillary is doing a good job acting the part (at least I hope it's acting).

[Maribelle]

26. Wrong. In Florida Obama is only polling 39% against McCain.

Some of that 39% includes Hillary's supporters that would vote for the democratic candidate regardless.

If a revote were held in Florida, Obama would be darn lucky to pull 30%, giving Hillary 70%. Obama is not hardly in the good graces of most Floridians these days.

[ProSense]

34. Wrong? What does polling against McCain have to do with the Dem primary? n/t

[Maribelle]

36. If you read the message portion of my post you might get the connection.

[ProSense]

41. I did! Again: What does polling about McCain have to do with the Dem primary?

A recent poll showed Obama polling 21 points above McCain in NYC compared to Hillary's 11.

[msallied]

45. Because people like this have decided that since they can't

soundly beat Obama, they must create a wonderful fantasy land where, in spite of not getting the nomination, they are facing off against John McCain in the general election.

[40ozDonkey]

22. Gee, I wonder if this is a fair assessment.

Let's check the end of the first paragraph!

If his plan to win the nomination succeeds, however, his plan to ‘transform’ America must fail, unless he makes a mid-course correction and runs on his theory and gives up trying to paint Hillary as a “monster,” and bully her out of the race.

Riiiiight. Enforce the delusion that losing consistently and catching feelings about it is just like being bullied.

I have high hopes for the rest of the text wall.

Obama plays this presidential primary like an aggressive game of Chicago Slap Down, the end game of which is to decrease Mrs. Clinton’s popularity and ‘bully’ her into giving up.

:rofl:

1) Obama brought down her popularity the past few weeks while being embroiled in a scandal over Wright? I like how he's selectively amazing. He can make primary miracles, but he can't win general elections?

2) Chicago Slapdown? OK. Apt. I'll take it.

[Maribelle]

24. Perhaps you were napping during the time Obama was multi-tasking, no?

Obama was in full assault mode against Hillary's character all the while he was trying to explain away and soft-peddle Wright's character.

[ProSense]

28. Link to nasty Rove tactics please!

The Obama is just as bad as Hillary talking point is why she is losing.

[DerekJ]

40. They will never give you one link... They know there isn’t one. It exists only in their heads.

[msallied]

46. In psychology, we call that "projection." It's a Clinton tactic, honed like a Hatori Hanzo sword.

[40ozDonkey]

29. That's a specious argument.

But let's play it out. Barack has the ability to take chunks of her character while he's in the middle of dealing with his own controversy.

Why shouldn't I want him to take on McCain?

See, McCain's character is his strength. It's his neocon asskissing and warmongering that's the problem. If Obama can multitask on Hillary, why wouldn't he therefore be the best person to take on McCain's only advantage?

[Maribelle]

33. You subjectively believe he was successful at both. I don't.

[40ozDonkey]

39. So you think he failed to dodge Wright and failed to drop Hillary's character?

Then how come his lead has increased in every poll?

Then how exactly did Hillary's unfavorables take a drop in all polls, if Obama failed to attack her character?

How did he take Texas tonight, as expected he would before the Wright scandal?

How did he win Mississippi and Wyoming after Hillary's supposed momentum shift?

How is she working to get 65% or more in every state in order to tie Obama in delegates? She's not closing the gap in states that favor Obama, or expanding her lead in states that favor her. If he failed to put the scandal to rest then why hasn't Reverend Wright been a factor in upcoming states (and Texas)?

[Maribelle]

23. That's an excellent post by Anna Shane!

And she ended with a perplexing question 'So how will Mr. Obama unite the nation if more than fifty per cent of us have the capacity to see through his ‘inspiration’ to its campaigning base of deceit, aggression and misogyny?' A question that no one involved with the Obama campaign seems to be a tad interested in.

If Obama was on the inside what he pretends to be outside he would have followed Churchill's great dictum: "In defeat defiance, in victory magnanimity." But magnanimity has apparently not entered his thoughts, as he continues to bash and lie about Hillary every chance he gets. And in his numerous victories he has only shown vanity and vindictiveness.

Obama has divided this nation further when responding to his Wright problem, turning his full deck of race cards onto the "typical white person" attempting to excuse away his support for this 20-year hate mongering preacher.

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Maribelle]

35. Personal attacks are against DU rules.

[americanstranger]

25. The posters at MyDD are losing their freakin' minds.

I expect a mass suicide to happen over there when Obama wins the nomination.

I gotta say, though - reading MyDD is pretty entertaining nowadays. It's rare to see multiple bloggers reach that level of pure derangement in one spot.

- as

[GoldieAZ49]

30. "There was a time I liked Mr. Obama, but I can now barely stand him"

I couldn't agree with her more

Chicago Slap Down indeed...I look forward to his Slap Down, may it be very very public

[JayFredMuggs]

31. Are you thinking this is a wrestling match?

One has to question why you want the nominee by over 1,000,000 popular votes defeated.

Do you harbor deep resentments of him for some logical reason?

If so, please tell us what your "logic" tells you.

[GoldieAZ49]

38. I was referring to the article

and yes I dropped Obama as my candidate of choice,

I did explain my logic, click on my journal entry and you can read why, it is the only thing in there

[DerekJ]

42. Nice Journal

It pretty much says:
Wright ..Wright..Wright.... Oh .. Wait ...Wright... Wright..Wright..

Wacked!!!

Let me ask you this, are you a progressive?

[GoldieAZ49]

43. yeah, Intentionally hiding Wright did it for me

I don't trust anything he says after that, he truly is a blank slate as he said, an unknown entity. (see my sig line)

progressive, I don't think so from reading some of the things on this board. More like a moderate democrat.

I would never condemn my country and all the people who have served this country, including every generation of my family.

[jbm]

50. me too...

I've always been very active politically. I organize the fundraisers, keep track of all the details, run the phonebanks,and make up the cash shortfalls out of my own pocket, but if Obama is the candidate I'm sitting this year out. And I will vote for McCain. I don't agree with the people that think a McCain vote is somehow beyond the pale. I have always respected the Republicans who refused to vote for George Bush because they saw through the BS. Those of us who see through the Obama nonsense should be noble enough to stop an incompetent Democrat from taking office as well.

[question everything]

37. What an excellent analysis of the hatred that Hillary still faces

Mrs. Clinton is a strong candidate for many reasons. She was part of the Clinton administration and had a front-row seat for the power decisions that were made in her husband's presidency. She's been an effective senator for more than a full term, and she's passed bi-partisan legislation that helped real people. She's genuinely nice and people she works with like her. Much of the best talent from her husband's administration admired her intelligence, passion, focus and stamina, and most endorsed her. She's friends with retired military officers and diplomats, and she has close connections to serving military. She's liked and respected by professionals and experts and in turn she's able to appreciate their talents and intelligence. She knows many world leaders and she's well versed in the language of diplomacy and international relations. She started her run earlier than he and she has detailed her plans for the reforms and changes that are her priorities. She was considered the front-runner even before anyone voted, as she was qualified, prepared, funded and had a rational and appealing platform. She could speak on any issue, with intelligence, thoughtfulness and detail, and debate with accuracy and acumen. She is a formidable obstacle to Mr. Obama's ambition.

She also has vulnerabilities. The media mainly disliked her and many in the media had tried to sabotage her candidacy, starting when she was still first lady, when some rightly suspected she might go into politics once her husband's political career had ended. There were those in the Senate who didn't want her to succeed for personal reasons, they felt disrespected by her husband's administration and didn't want him back in any position. One example is John Kerry, who invited Mr. Obama to give the keynote speech at the 2004 convention, and who kept Mrs. Clinton from having any formal role in the convention, while allowing his wife a long and self-serving speech. Additionally, Mrs. Clinton, as the first woman to make a credible run for the presidency, receives the `envy' any `outsider' trying to break forbidden ground encounters. As to the extent her sex would be an advantage, Obama also runs as `an outsider,' but still a man.

[Hamlette]

47. I've long suspected much of it is about gender....sort of proves my point n/t

[izzybeans]

49. I get it, it's like being abused and

in turn abusing someone else to get back at your abuser. The Clinton Orwellian crybaby routine didn't make sense to me until I read this tripe.

I see.