When can we expect more TX caucus results? Anyone??

[flor de jasmim]

[Hope And Change]

1. The Field Projects Obama Winner of Texas Conventions (+ Sunday a.m. Update)

The Field Projects Obama Winner of Texas Conventions (+ Sunday a.m. Update)


The numbers keep rolling in over at http://burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5484">Burnt Orange Report.

The Field projects Obama to win today’s Democratic conventions in Texas by a comfortable margin which will give him an advance of between 9 and 11 Democratic National Convention delegates when all is said and done.

Of the 4,407 state convention delegates yet to be determined, 893 will come from Dallas (where Obama is so far winning 65 percent of the votes) and from Houston (where Obama is so far winning 75 percent of the votes). Other key Obama strongholds are yet to come in, and together outnumber the Clinton strongholds (San Antonio, El Paso and others) yet to be counted.

Essentially, Obama is outperforming throughout the state except for in the (largely counted) Rio Grande Valley region and in the northernmost parts of the Texan Panhandle, where Clinton has overperformed. But the math should guarantee a victory for Obama when the tallies are all in.

Sunday Morning Update:

The results of the controversially-handled Senate District 26 convention in San Antonio are finally in:

Clinton 126 delegates (60 percent)
Obama 84 (40 percent)

With one district left (with only 40 delegates left to be chosen) San Antonio is now at Clinton 257 delegates (58 percent), Obama 185 (42 percent): a margin of only 72 delegates. Not enough to put a dent in the big lead Obama racked up yesterday. Here’s the current tally:

Obama: 3280 delegates (56 percent)
Clinton: 2580 (44 percent)

With only 1,806 delegatees left to count, 790 – almost half - are from the following places where Obama won big:

312 from Tarrant SD 10 (Fort Worth)
196 from Harris 7 (Houston)
180 from Collin (in Dallas-Fort Worth metro, which votes today)
102 from Jefferson (Beamont)

There are only 40 delegates left to be chosen that will come from a populous Clinton territory:

40 from Bexar 21 (San Antonio)

The remaining just-under-1,000 delegates are mostly from smaller, rural counties where typically the delegates are being divided 50-50 or 2-1 or 3-2 or 4-3, and come from a mix of regions that favored each camp. Clinton might win more of them, but not by a significant margin.

When all is counted, Obama should be up by 500 delegates or more, meaning probably 9+ delegates, maybe 11+, confirming him as the clear winner of Texas overall.

And there’s still the chance for slip ‘twixt the cup and the lip: All these 7,000-plus delegates have to haul ass to Austin on June 6 for the state convention. We saw a lot of absenteeism yesterday in home regions. Getting to Austin from Lubbuck or El Paso or Texarkana is a major expense. With the Clinton campaign virtually broke, and likely even more so in June, it probably won’t be able to afford to pay for the gas and other expenses for so many people, whereas the Obama campaign, being flush to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, will probably do what is necessary to get its delegates there: that will be three days after the final primaries across the nation. Which campaign do you think can pick up a few more delegates simply by turning out its troops to the convention?

Also of Note: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/30/15757/2729/63/477945">A DKos diary from Melody Townsell of Dallas about the ten hours of challenges that the Clinton campaign made against 22 elected delegates. Such tactics didn’t help them in the end result, which was: Obama 82 percent, Clinton 18.

Posted on March 29th, 2008 by Al Giordano

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=968">Link

[movonne]

2. I would like to know this too..

[C_U_L8R]

3. looks like the good burnt orange folks are still at breakfast

http://burntorangereport.com/

I would think they'll be back online soon

[flor de jasmim]

4. Yes, I have a permanent tab open at Burnt Orange's site :-)

[crankychatter]

5. There is only one election result in Texas - the final one

They combine the two processes, have their own formula for the total

and that's the result

the ONLY result

if Texas says Obama wins then Obama wins

with ONE set of numbers

Clinton______
Obama _______

[sonias]

6. Probably all won't be reported until Monday

There is actually one convention meeting today Sunday - Collin county.

But Burnt Orange Report a great Texas political blog was updating their spreadsheet totals until midnight yesterday. The main post is here:
BOR Exclusive: TX Presidential Primary Convention Results

As of last night at midnight with 46.13% of the conventions reporting.
Obama 56.05% Clinton 43.95%

They have a nifty little spreadsheet they created Delegate count Texas They will be updating it more today.

I think the bigger urban area conventions are in that total. Obama's campaign has reported they won the caucus vote in Texas yesterday.

Postcards from the Lege
UPDATE: Obama says he’s won Texas
Obama press release quoted in post:

With more than 56 percent of the results tallied from today’s 284 Democratic district conventions across Texas, Sen. Barack Obama currently is projected to earn a 38-29 pledged delegate win in the Texas caucuses, exactly as projected on the day after the March 4th precinct caucuses. The nine delegate margin in the caucuses means Obama will gain a net margin of five pledged delegates from Texas because Senator Clinton narrowly won the Texas primary by only four delegates, 65-61.

"Despite the Clinton campaign’s widespread attempts to prevent many Texans from participating in their district convention, the voters of Texas confirmed Senator Obama’s important delegate win in the Lone Star State," said Obama spokesman Josh Earnest. "Today’s record-shattering turnout sends a clear message that the American people are ready for change in Washington and new leadership in the White House that will stand up for working families."

:dem:

Sonia

[0007]

7. With Mark Penn and O.J. on the loose, who knows?

[Hope And Change]

8. Kick!

:kick: