I'm Gonna Make a Bold Prediction: The Race will be over on April 22nd When Obama wins PA.

[MadBadger]

I'm not guaranteeing anything but I think many of you will be pleasantly surprised by the polls that will come out of Pennsylvania in the coming week. I think they will show that this race has closed greatly. I think with the great press Obama has with his bus tour and Hillary Clinton's falling numbers, Obama will pull close enough to surprise people and pull an upset. He still has three weeks to convince PA voters to vote for him and I think he will do just that, winning Pennsylvania 50.5-49.5.

[Colobo]

1. I hope you're right, man!

[scrucon]

26. I wonder if we'll hear anything from all you Obama supporters

when Hillary wipes the floor with him on April 22. Will you then at least have the decency to say you were wrong in writing her off so early? I find all the talk about his integrity nauseating.

[MadBadger]

29. Alec Baldwin has something he wants to say to you

Ask his daugther about it.

[BumRushDaShow]

33. Sorry, not going to happen.

There is no writing off "early". There is writing off "LATE". Fully 81% of the contests are COMPLETE. DONE. OVER.

She has lost more states, more delegates, and the popular vote. And with the caucus states going through the rest of their process, she continues to lose delegates.

She needs to step down.

[terrell9584]

38. In the primaries, there have been 26 million votes cast

And Obama has a tremendous, awesome, insurmountable lead of a little over half a million out of these 26 million cast, (not count FL or MI)

An insurmountable lead that amounts to a percentage point when you do the numbers. Clinton has no reason to drop out and if the shoe was on the other foot, Obama supporters would be talking about how unfair it is that they are the ones being asked to drop out, when they are pushing this candidate who promises hope and change and is a great orator and inspires people.

The rules are pretty simple. To clinch a nomination you have to win a certain number of delegates. Neither candidate has done it, and looking at what states that are coming up, neither candidate will. Obama has a real problem with white working class voters. He just does. Clinton has a problem with wealthier liberals, she just does. None of the states coming up can provide them with the edge to clinch it, it's just not happening. And as for the Casey endorsement. I don't know how much that really matters. As someone who actually studies politics (and I intend on having a career in it) the first thing I thought of when I heard of Casey's endorsement was revenge. Bill Clinton kept his father from speaking at the '92 convention. Compounding this is the fact of who Hillarys main backer in Pennsylvania. Ed Rendell. Casey came into the 2002 race for governor as a favorite and it was a shock that he won. Casey may have felt that it was owed to him, and that Rendell had kept him away from what was rightfully his. So, it could very well be an act of revenge against Rendell and the first salvo of what could be a 2010 gubernatorial campaign.

In 1912, the delegate frontrunner was a man named Champ Clark. He had a substantial lead over his challenger, New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson. Champ Clark was not able to win enough delegates to clinch the nomination and it was decided at the convention. We all know what they decided.

Kentucky has a right to be heard. Indiana has a right to be heard. Pennsylvania has a right to be heard, North Carolina has a right to be heard, West Virginia has a right to be heard, South Dakota has a right to be heard, Puerto Rico has a right to be heard, Oregon has a right to be heard, and there still could be new elections in Florida and Michigan. Considering the problems both states have had in the past with voter rights issues and discrimination caucuses are simply unacceptable, because they would disenfranchise people.

Let the election go forth and let every vote count. It will all work itself out in the end.

[BumRushDaShow]

66. I am a multi-generational Pennsylvanian.

I am aware of the politics here in this state.

But the one thing that was driven home to me this year, which would be my 8th Presidential election as a voter, is the fact that the Party decides what is best for the Party. This was seen quite clearly with the Republicans this season and it will occur with the Democrats as it always has.

It's ironic but in the past, due to PA's "late" primary, we here in PA never had any "right to be heard". My chosen candidate, Dennis Kucinich never made it this far out. And thus, I have ALREADY been disenfranchised from choosing who I wanted to be a nominee. This has been the case throughout my voting lifetime and most people's voting lifetimes. So your argument about having a "right to be heard" is falling on deaf ears about now. Unless there is a "national" Primary, then elections have and will continue to be decided BEFORE a large chunk of voters "have the right to be heard".

THAT is the reality.

So in this case, it really doesn't matter. We are down to two since Mike Gravel, who was another forgotten candidate on the Democratic ticket, decided to switch to Libertarian, and it's time to wrap this thing up.

[FatDave]

68. Obama has a real problem with white working class voters. He just does.

Of course he does. It was all of the blacks in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Washington (state), and Idaho that put him over the top.

:eyes:

[BumRushDaShow]

77. Exactly.

And don't forget the majority-black states of Kansas, Maine, Alaska, Wisconsin, and Colorado.

Up = down. Dark = light. War = peace. Loser = winner. Hillaryworld.

[terrell9584]

79. Every one of those states except Utah

was a caucus state, and in Washington which had both, a clear disconnect. Obama wins the caucus with 67%, the primary with 51%

Every one of those states you just mentioned, with the exception of maybe Washington, are also lily white states. And as we are talking about Idaho, I'll make a comparison between Ada County (Boise) and Madison County, Alabama (Huntsville). Only because they are similar in population. A grand total of 8,000 people came out to caucus in Ada. 40,000 people voted in the the Democratic Primary in Madison. That's double the statewide vote of all of Idaho.

And does anyone believe that we are going to win Utah as the state is presently constructed. It will take the next depression for us to win Utah (and we might be headed for it)

I see a good parallel in this race to 1912. In 1912, the delegate leader was Champ Clark. He had a substantial lead. He couldn't clinch the nomination. His challenger, Wilson, ended up winning on one of the later ballots. Wilson became the first Democratic president in 20 years.

[roguevalley]

83. take your caucus bias elswehere. as for the lilly white states, given

a choice between a teetering old fud with a war jones and the future, the future will win. However, if you wanna stay with the past, welcome to it.

[MadBadger]

97. GOd, you Clintonites like rules only when it applies to you it appears.

[cali]

50. I disagree with the OP, but you're also wrong

she won't wipe the floor with him in PA. At best she'll beat him by 10 or so and that's just not enough. I wrote her off after Wisconsin, and I still think she's toast. As for Obama's integrity, maybe it's just in contrast to crooked hilly that he looks so good. Almost anyone would.

[FightTheRight89]

52. O-Train's a rollin!

Woo-woo!

[corkhead]

59. want to know what I find nauseating? Pointless non sequiturs like yours.

[PoliticalAmazon]

64. You have a lot of nerve after the way Hillary has acted when she lost!...

...Really, the GALL of Hillary CLinton and her supporters!

She and her campaign toadies have repeatedly disrespected states' voters, even being so foul as to target African-Americans in the states she lost, just because they didn't vote for her.

All the states she lost---unimportant in her eyes. African-American voters who didn't vote for her?--the only reason they voted for OBama is because they share a racial commonality.

You--and Hillary Clinton--have NO right to demand ANYTHING from OBama and his supporters if he loses a state. Would you like us to follow the example set by Hillary Clinton and her campaign?

[FatDave]

67. I'll gladly say that if...

...she wipes the floor with him in PA, NC, IN, OR, WV, and KY. That's what she needs to do to catch up in pledged delegates. She's got to win all of those by 60/40 or better. All of them. With a 20 point lead.

That's why people say the math is against her. That's why people say it is unwinnable for her.

[apocalypsehow]

75. Well, jlake, it's like this....

...Sockpuppets aren't cool. :thumbsdown:

[roguevalley]

81. take your 34 posts back to freeperland. I find you nauseating.

[Cha]

95. "Writing her off so early"...brwawawawawawawawa

hilary is her own worst enema..

[writes3000]

2. The Obama team's predicitions have been pretty spot on.

So I'm going to be happy if they get close to those numbers. (52% Clinton, 47% Obama)

[roguevalley]

84. she was projected and predicted a blowout, like a 20 point lead.

if she gets less than double digits, its a bad loss.

[derby378]

3. If I was a Hillary supporter...

...I'd consider challenging you to a friendly wager. Something like the loser has to hand-wash the winner's car.

[scrucon]

28. I am a Hillary supporter and I'd like to see some humility from you all when she wins PA. nt

[derby378]

32. IF, not WHEN

And honestly, I thought I was being nice. Sooner or later, Obama and Clinton supporters are going to have to kiss and make up, otherwise the next President nukes Tehran in 2009.

[BearSquirrel2]

76. This is a prize fight ...

This is a prize fight. We'll hug after someone gets knocked out. Until then ... it's gloves up!!!!

DING, DING, DING!!!!!

[JayFredMuggs]

45. Will that mean she's won 12 states?

or is it 13?

[Kittycat]

48. She's expected to win.

When she shows a little humility - maybe we'll consider reciprocating. How many states, and various types of voters don't count now? I've lost track.

[Cant trust em]

54. How about when she wins the nomination

and not another one of the prelims. Only then will people have to eat some crow. It's a long time until the convention. Pennsylvania is just another step in the path.

A really, really long path.

[Cant trust em]

56. self-delete

[PoliticalAmazon]

65. Should we follow the example set by Hillary and her toadies? n/t

[roguevalley]

85. I am an obama supporter and I would like to see some reality from

you all when she doesn't win in the double digits like they say she will.

[Cha]

96. I liked to see some humiltiy from you for

for supporting a f'n liar under fire like hilary. We've had enough LIARS in the white house for the last 24 years.

[Bullet1987]

4. Do you have some insider information about the polling being done in PA?

I would love for Obama to win PA, but I also don't want to get my hopes up.

[MadBadger]

8. I have no insider information whatsoever

I'm just going with my gut, and Stephen Colbert always tells me to go with my gut.

[panader0]

12. I go with my colon.

[Thickasabrick]

LOL......best comment of the day n/t

[grantcart]

5. well the only thing that could make that happen is the vigorous campaigning of Hillary Clinton

We should buy a ticket for Carville to tour the state and give lecturers.


I would be curious what the PA DUer's think about your prediction.

[bilgewaterbill]

6. Hillary is lying and she's running out of money.

Soon she'll be lying about running out of money. Voters don't like liars. Your prediction may come true.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

7. I think it will be closer but as yet we have a long way to go

hope that you are right. If she only wins by a whisker then her win won't worth much.

[John Q. Citizen]

18. She needs to win 57% of the vote to tie. Anything less is a loss, anything more a victory.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

19. the polls show her around 50%

so basially she's waiting for something awful to happen to her opponent? The Obama team must be ready to fire before she fires.

[John Q. Citizen]

80. Obama's campaign has been excellent so far. I think they are getting the job done.

It's just a time consuming and drawn out job.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

92. if we bring more into PA soon

we can get the job done

[roguevalley]

86. to make a dent, she needs 65+% of every single remaining

state. NC will be a double digit blowout for Obama.

[panader0]

9. The Casey endorsement, the Texas Caucus numbers, and

Hillary's own campaign will tighten this up a lot. Winning in PA is not out of the question.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. I've always felt that PA had potential to be a Missouri-like squeaker. n/t

[MadBadger]

13. Run up the score in the heavily populated areas and watch her lead on primary day slowly dissolve.

[BumRushDaShow]

30. That's what usually happens here.

The one critical thing to look out for though, is voter suppression and election shenanigans - particularly in Philly, with the usual "broken machines", "machines not delivered", "polling places not opened on time", "unannounced changed polling places", "not enough poll workers", "machine tallies not submitted on time", "machines locked away in warehouses not counted", "absentee ballots missing or not counted", etc. Fortunately in Philadelphia, people have now been allowed to submit provisional ballots if there is a problem with not being on a division list... where in the past, that person would have had to go to a judge of election at their nearest police precinct office and make their case before a judge, etc.

[gateley]

11. Would Clinton consider that a win, though?

If I were she, a race that close would feel pretty encouraging... :shrug:

[Joe the Revelator]

34. She has to win PA by at LEAST 24 points.....how can you spin a close loss into a win...

facing that reality???

[gateley]

39. I considered Obama's NH showing

somewhat of a win for him. This isn't basketball and a close final tally indicates support.

If it WAS really close, would they divide the delegates pretty much equally?

[Joe the Revelator]

78. NH was a momentum primary, this is a "Either Hillary wins huge or she has zero reason to continue...

running. This is late in the game, she has to win big or her purpose becomes completely questionable.

[roguevalley]

87. she would spin 1% as a landslide. she wants to create momentum

and the only people who will be looking at her with lazers will be the SD. If they see a 'sure thing' like Penn go for less than 60% to her I think will prompt a bunch of announcements for Obama. They don't want to ride into extinction on her coattails.

[bluestateguy]

14. He doesn't have to win PA

If he keeps it to a single digit loss that will not be treated as a Hillary win by the MSM. A 10-20 point Hillary win is just meeting expectations. Only a 20+ point win by Hillary in PA will get her any credit.

[MadBadger]

17. I agree that he doesnt have to win PA, but I think he will. And an actual win will knock her out

I think that is the only way she drops out, if he wins PA.

[FatDave]

71. You're exactly right

He doesn't need to win in PA, but if he pulls an upset, it's over for Hillary. An Obama win in PA will finish it.

[roguevalley]

88. I agree. Money people are watching. if they see a loser, they will

leave her.

[OzarkDem]

22. Yes he does

No candidate can win the GE without winning states like PA. Given Obama's poor showing against McCain these days, he can't afford to "throw away" any states, as he's already done with FL and MI.

[MadBadger]

24. PA is a perfect example of a state where winning the Primary doesnt mean you have a better chance...

of winning it in the GE. Its a closed Primary. Obama does considerably better than Hillary among Independents. He wins a lot of them, while they go to McCain in GE matchups.

[VolcanoJen]

40. Even Ed Rendell predicts PA would choose Obama over McCain in the general election.

And, speaking historically, Mike Dukakis won the primaries in PA, OH, MI, FL, TX and CA in 1988, and went on to lose each one of these "big" states to Poppy Bush in the general election.

Your argument is entirely nonsensical.

[Cant trust em]

60. Here we go again

The states Clinton wins are essential, but the one's that Obama wins (and their voters) aren't very important.

[roguevalley]

89. poor showing against mccain. Ha! McCain hasn't even begun to

hurt from the beating he's going to take during debates and on the trail. Iraq has gone south and he said today that if it goes south, so does he because he has put his ENTIRE CAMPAIGN on that train. My dog could beat him headon.

[wileedog]

25. I think the MSM is going to play ANY win in PA

as "momentous", "tremendous" "see she isn't out" "comeback kid II" blah blah blah. They have zero interest in portraying the boring truth in the math.

They have already spent weeks saying all of those things about Texas, which she technically lost, and even the primary vote she won was by a few points in a state she once lead by 20. But no, that was a huge victory.

Until it is over every minor success for her and every little speed bump for Obama will be touted as the momentum changer. Even sports announcers hate broadcasting blowouts.

[MadBadger]

27. No they wont. The narrative the MSM has set up is that she must win big

If she doesnt do that, the calls for her to get out will increase.

[wileedog]

36. I'll believe when I see it

I think they will have trouble 'nuancing' that argument with some people. I think they will worry that people might think "why are the media trying to get her to quit? She just won?" I'm specifically looking at how they have largely ignored things like Texas as I mentioned, they just want to announce the winner, not the details.

But for the record I hope you are right :)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

15. Jake, is that you?

:evilgrin:

[theredpen]

16. That's pretty bold

I'd like to see that happen, but I'm betting that the best Obama will do is squeak out a close 2nd place. We'll see.

[Lucky 13]

20. I actually agree with you...

I was actually going to make a similar prediction, but figured everyone would just flame me (Hill supporters) or tell me I was jinxing it.

Once again his grassroots organization has been SPOT ON. He's registering TONS of new voters, he's making campaign stops with Franco Harris and "The Bus", he was endorsed by Casey... combine that with SNIPERGATE and the constant WHINING from her campaign and I think PA and the NATION will tire of her shortly.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I actually do believe Obama can take PA and then North Carolina and then Indiana...

But what then? I don't think she'll drop out even if he beats her in a landslide in all remaining contests. She's taking this thing to the convention come hell or high water. And what could be done to stop it? Not numbers. Not the primaries. Not financing problems. Not high-level Dems asking, BEGGING, her to stop. I just don't know what can be done about her.

[MadBadger]

21. Edwards too said he was going to the convention. She will drop out if she loses PA.

[Lucky 13]

35. I wish I could believe that.

I really do wish that were true. There was a time when I used to like Hillary. If she were to drop out soon (i.e. shortly before OR after PA) it would go a long way for me to be able to BEGIN considering her on "my team" again. But right now, I can't see beyond her selfishness.

And from all I've seen, I don't think that anything, LEAST of all DECENCY or SENSE, will stop her from taking this to the convention. She wants what she wants and by GOD no one will take it from her.

[totodeinhere]

37. Right, if she loses PA she still won't drop out.

[elizm]

23. He can be pretty convincing! :)

I'll keep that hope alive with you! :toast:

[kid a]

31. oh! the possibilities!

[anonymous171]

41. I would normally say no. But while Hillary has been trying to be a Foreign Policy War president

Obama has been doing townhalls and meetings, eschewing the large rallies for smaller, more intimate settings. He's getting to know the people of PA. He's latest ads there show that he is taking a more Edwards-style approach.

[MadBadger]

42. I disagree. He's not doing an Edwards-Style Approach, He is doing an Obama Iowa-style approach.

THis is what won him Iowa, doing town hall's and smaller rallies with the occasional bigger rally.

[anonymous171]

43. Well, I would say his economic focus is more Edwards-style.

Focus on the gas prices and loss of jobs.

[MadBadger]

44. And Id disagree again LOL

The Economic focus is because at the moment this is the most important issue to voters.

[anonymous171]

46. lol. That's what I was trying to say.

I wasn't saying that his platform had been permanently altered. :)

[BumRushDaShow]

69. Just to pop into your back and forth...

I noticed that Obama is apparently target-marketing his ads in different areas of the state. The only ads that I have seen/heard here in Philly so far are focussed on the energy/gasoline price mess. I understand there are the other ads running - particularly the more "blue collar-ey" ones - but I assume they are airing elsewhere.

[JimGinPA]

47. They Brought The Campaign Staffer Who Ran Iowa To Head PA Last Week...

They aren't taking a loss here for granted. I've always said I thought it would be closer here than the pundits were predicting, but I think now the Obama campaign secretly thinks they can win this.

[MadBadger]

49. I like what they are doing here a lot

I think they should stick to the townhalls and surprise visits in the more rural areas, and in the urban areas where Obama does better, do the big arena like rallies. I will say that if Obama loses this by a very small margin, I put that on his campaign. I was very disappointed that he didnt campaign harder before voter registration. I wish he would have went all out before that day, but he didnt.

[JimGinPA]

51. We Almost Doubled The Campaign's "Goal" In New Registrations Though...

Now there's a strong GOTV push going on.

[MadBadger]

58. I'm sure the GOTV efforts are strong, but I think the candidate himself would make it even stronger.

If I were Obama I would have done a college tour. I would have gone to Pitt, PSU, one of the Philly schools, etc to get the young college kids registered. They may not be the most reliable to turn out, but along with African Americans, I dont really see his young supporters abandoning him for anything.

[JimGinPA]

70. His Six Day Bus Tour Is Getting A Lot Of Coverage...

And there will still be three weeks for him to campaign here, plus another debate and a lot of well placed advertising.

[BumRushDaShow]

73. Since there's still time to go before the election

I think he opted to do some interim campaigning in Indiana and NC, which could provide some good wins to really bolster his position. His ground game here in PA at the colleges and the universities was pretty extensive. And since these kids are internet-savvy, they don't have to have that face-to-face interaction that older generations need to get them excited to participate. The whole registration thing went "viral" on the campuses and they certainly have more time to follow politics than the average person.... especially if they have someone who they feel is focusing on their interests.

[roguevalley]

90. his skill as a community organizer cannot be underestimated.

hillary did and look at her now.

[Tatiana]

53. Bookmarked. If you are right, I will purchase you the beverage of your choice. n/t

[ClayZ]

55. April 22 is Earth Day and my Birthday! Wooo Hoooo!

:party:

[roguevalley]

91. pre-happy birthday, ClayZ. :)

[ClayZ]

93. It would be a great Birthday indeed,

if that was the day Barack Obama won the Dem Nomination!

[Cant trust em]

57. He doesn't even have to win outright.

he just has to prevent a blowout. The door for Clinton is closing. Winning PA will slow the closing a little bit, but it's going to close.

[cooolandrew]

61. Let's hope so. Things are looking brithg and optimistic after a long dark night.

[zulchzulu]

62. I agree

I've predicted that Obama will win PA by 2-3% by the time the votes are cast.

The Clintons are definitely going to take a big hit if they release their taxes in April. If they don't release them, they'll take an even bigger hit.

[PoliticalAmazon]

63. I don't want HRC to make more unpaid debts in PA ...

...Her unpaid debtor list is long, and some look like older debts.

If she can't pay her bills, she shouldn't be in the damned race! Even dragging it out to the Primary in PA puts PA organizations and businesses at risk of unpaid Clinton campaign debts.

This is not the kind of economy where a business can afford to front goods or services and not get promptly paid.

This is a profound demonstration of HRC's irresponsible greedy grab at anything she can get to help her get what she wants...in this instance, it's the Dem primary candidacy, something she cannot win on ethical terms.

Enough. It's time for the Clinton campaign to bow out of the race.

[BlooInBloo]

72. It would be nice, but I don't see it happening. We'll find out tho!

[cboy4]

74. Stop the election11!!

Don't count all the votes!111!

[backscatter712]

82. Let me throw my own prediction out there.

First, I hope the OP is right - we really need to get the Dems out of circular-firing-squad mode and focused on destroying McCain and winning in November.

That said, my bet is that Hillary, being as stubborn and delusional as she is, won't pull out even if she loses in PA.

Where the race will truly be over is May 20th, the day of Oregon's and Kentucky's primaries. The results of those primaries won't be really too important. I am assuming there are no catastrophes between now and then for Obama, and he either maintains or widens his delegate counts.

What does happen on May 20th will be mathematical. After May 20th, there will only be 86 delegates left, total in all the races that are left. Assuming Obama maintains a pledged delegate lead of more than 86 delegates (and he'd have to eat a baby live on CNN for that to not happen,) it will be mathematically impossible for Hillary to catch up in pledged delegates.

The only way she'd be able to possibly get the nomination at that point would be to get the superdelegates to override the popular vote. And I doubt very much that will happen.

[Cha]

94. You are bold, hnmnf!

It could so happen..we'll see.

[NC_Nurse]

98. PA will be close. I hope you're right and he wins. Either way,

we are gonna put the nails in the coffin of her campaign here in NC. She's gonna get blown out and we have almost as many delegates as PA.