Gonna play with some more numbers... I think Obama can hit 2024 pretty easily

[Johnny__Motown]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/





This has Obama at:

1414 Pledged
211 Super
1625 Total



There is a report that 7 more SD are going to endorse him soon so that total is 1632


There are 918 pledged delegates still up for grabs in the up coming contests.


The magic number is 2025


2025 - 1632 = 393


918 X .45 = 413.1

If Obama only got 45% of the remaining pledged delegates he would receive 413 delegates. 20 more than he needs to hit 2025




I'm just saying......

[DUyellow]

1. don't tell anybody...

trying to keep it a secret

[jgraz]

2. I've been wondering this for a while -- what is so hard about him hitting 2025?

It seems almost a done deal at this point.

[Levgreee]

4. if the superdelegates alligned just right, then he wouldn't have 2025

he can't get them ONLY with pledged delegates, therefore, he can't really win with his lead.

That's the bs argument that is being used. They don't, as they should, assume from the beginning of their calculations that he'll have a certain number of super delegates.

[JVS]

14. Kerry was never held to that kind of standard for his win

[Johnny__Motown]

21. Fuck. ny math is wrong. that 918 number is the total number of delegates left, not pledged

[tammywammy]

9. 2024 now

Since Spitzer is gone.

[babylonsister]

11. Back down to 2023: PR Gov? He's a bad boy, and gone. nt

[tammywammy]

16. I dunno

The reason that there's one less because of Spitzer is that Paterson didn't resign his position from the DNC.

Gov. Anibal Acevedo Vila hasn't resigned from the governorship. So I'd assume he's still a super delegate.

[Ysabel]

18. yes 2023 is what i read last count yesterday i think i read that (nt)...

[Johnny__Motown]

20. Delete due to fucked up math

[PresidentObama]

3. It's the math, stupid!

[Levgreee]

5. are you sure there is 918 left? seems high...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

6. Bingo!

[4themind]

7. Does the 918 include super dels?

The pledged dels are a little over 560 according to RCP <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html#moreraces>

[Johnny__Motown]

17. No, if you scroll down a litte and look to the right.. the delegate tracker

has the total number of pledged delegates.. 4047 and the number already allocated 3129

4047 - 3129 = 918

[Tatiana]

8. I thought there were like 700 remaining pledged (not including SD's)?

On edit: You're counting MI and FL, then?

[usregimechange]

10. Maybe pass that on to the M$M and help dislodge their heads from their arses

[TheDoorbellRang]

12. actually, there are only 566 pledged delegates left in remaining contests

And roughly 335 undeclared super delegates left, according to DemConWatch. It seems like each site has a slightly different number, but I wonder if that 918 figure is CNN's lumped sum of all remaining delegates?

There are 3253 unpledged delegates altogether, so majority of these would be 1627. Obama's just about 210 shy of that majority. If he averages 50% in the remaining contests, he'll get about 283 more pledged delegates. 1414 + 283 = 1697 total pledged delegates. Add 211 super delegates to that for 1908. He'd then need another 117 super delegates to put him at 2025. And 117 is only about 35% of the remaining super delegates. Sweet, eh?:D

[kennetha]

13. Of course once FLA and MI are seated

All these calculations go out the window. At this rate, no delegate from either Florida or Michigan is going to vote for the man who is assiduously avoiding their enfranchisement.

[NanceGreggs]

15. Ah, you're so right ...

... they will, of course, all back Hillary - who went along with their so-called disenfranchisement - until she realized she actually needed those votes she was all for not counting in the first place.

Who can forget that when it was decided that MI and FL wouldn't be counted because they broke the rules, Hillary courageously came forward and said, "No, I can't go along with this. This is not right!"

Well, I guess everyone will forget that - because it never happened.

Of course, she can always claim tomorrow that she did say that, and pray there are no videotapes out there disproving her assertion.

[Johnny__Motown]

19. unless they are seated in a 50-50 split, then the totals all go up but the math holds

[Zhade]

26. HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Thanks for the laugh, dreamer!

Not. Gonna. Happen. She's done.

[Tatiana]

28. And who is going to seat them? n/t

[Johnny__Motown]

22. AH CRAP,, Let this fucked up post die.... Someone told me there were 1000 pledged delegates left and

I fucked up and didn't look into it deeply enough



that 918 number must be the TOTAL numbger of delegates left..


I WAS SLEEP DEPRIVED.. shit. I fucked up.. sorry

[Ysabel]

23. aw don't worry about it (hell i suck at math) - {{{hugs for trying}}}...

[bhikkhu]

25. at least the snipers didn't get ya'

[Yes We Did]

24. And can you call those SDs up and tell them vote Obama in and stop this Clinton implosion...

It's embarrassing.

[TexanDem]

27. What about Texas? Won't he get a few more from TX now?

[Tatiana]

29. I think Obama will need to get somewhere around 56-57% of the remaining pledged delegates

to hit the magic number (not including MI or FL or Super Dees).