The Jed Report: Leading Indicator of a Doomed Candidacy

[dkf]

A leading indicator of a doomed candidacy
by JedReport
Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:41:19 PM PDT

Today's headline in the WaPo:

Clinton Vows To Stay in Race To Convention.

It was a beautiful thing to see -- because the moment a presidential candidate is forced to vow that he or she isn't quitting, you know they are toast.

In recent history:

Feb 5: Romney Vows to Stay in GOP Race

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney pledged to fight all the way to the Republican nominating convention this summer if necessary, despite being overpowered by John McCain in Super Tuesday contests.

Feb 4: Huckabee vows to stay in race

WASHINGTON -- Mike Huckabee hasn't won a Republican presidential contest in a month. The result: money is tighter, his staff is smaller and he can't seem to get the attention he once did. Still, he says he's sticking around for the long haul -- well past Tuesday's coast-to-coast primaries and caucuses if need be.

Jan 24: Giuliani Vows to Stay in the Race

BOCA RATON, Fla. – Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has staked his candidacy on the Florida primary only to see his standing in statewide polls slip, said here Thursday afternoon that he would stay in the race even if he loses on Jan. 29.

Jan 6: Edwards vows to stay in race to convention

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Democrat John Edwards said Sunday he will stay in the presidential race through the party's convention in late August, even if he fails to win any of the early presidential primary states. "This is the call of my life, and I have no intention of stopping," Edwards said on ABC's This Week. "I'm in this through the convention and to the White House." Asked specifically if he'd remain a candidate even if he failed to garner a win over the next month, Edwards said, "Absolutely."

Update: How could I have forgotten Bill Richardson? Thanks peace voter!

Also posted at my blog.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/30/162324/643/888/487282

On Edit: This Jed Report is pretty good stuff. I highly recommend

http://www.jedreport.com/

[billyoc]

1. IOW, I don't want to hitchhike home, so keep those donations coming. nt

[BzaDem]

2. The difference is this race is close.

1.4%-2.5% difference in the popular vote (w/wo FL), 4% diff in pledged delegates.

But keep thinking that. Thats the kind of thinking that caused Obama to lose Ohio and TX, and will lose PA big.

[flor de jasmim]

3. The race is NOT as close as you think - you're kidding yourself:

the point is not what percentage difference there is, but the margins that HRC would have to win in order to catch UP, let alone win. There's no way she can realistically catch up.

[BzaDem]

6. If Hillary is so finished, why haven't the remaining super-Ds flocked to Obama?

If they did, he would already be the nominee. So why haven't they?

They're clearly waiting to see what happens in the next several elections. If Hillary does really well in all of them, do you think THEN they will flock to Obama?

That's the reason the race isn't over, and the reason why so many Obama supporters post threads pretending it is over, desperate to convince people of something that isn't actually true.

[babylonsister]

7. Stand by for more stuff. The SDs have been moving,

slowly, or you haven't been paying attention.

Who was the last SD Clinton got? :think:

[BzaDem]

8. Murtha, about a week ago.

If the race were actually already predetermined, ALL the remaining SDs would be with Obama. There is a reason why hundreds of super-Ds have not yet endorsed.

[babylonsister]

10. Oooh. That's right. He might be the last. We'll see. nt

[dkf]

9. 6 from NC lined up...

according to WSJ

[knixphan]

15. bingo.

[cliffordu]

4. Except Obama didn't lose Tejas........

[phrigndumass]

5. Obama lost Texas

:spray: :rofl: :tinfoilhat:

[eridani]

13. You get the most delegates and you win

Obama has the most Texas delegates.

[knixphan]

16. yep!

[Kittycat]

11. It's not close.

There's no way she can catch him in Pledged delegates. The difference is large enough that if she tried to end run with super's - the party would implode.

This race is NOT close. Close was after Iowa - before he was 13 in a row.

ETA: Newsflash... Clinton lost TX - Obama netted 4 or 5 delegates. I know math is hard for HillFans to support, but that doesn't make it any less factual.

[FatDave]

12. Reality doesn't matter. All you have to do is create a perception.

Saying "she's only X% behind" creates a perception that the race is closer than it is. Once you've got a perception, reality can be drowned out with noise.

[PatGund]

14. BTW -

Sen. Obama didn't lose Texas. Unless you're drinking the "Caucuses don't count" koolaid