Yet another probably-wrong prediction: Hillary will be done-done on May 20th.

[backscatter712]

Why May 20th? For one, I believe that Hillary's too stubborn to quit before or after Pennsylvania. So I'm going back to mathematics, specifically a number.

The magic number: 1,627 - half the number of pledged delegates in the race.

Assuming that Obama doesn't screw up (and I strongly believe he won't,) May 20th, the date of the races in Kentucky and Oregon, is probably when he will have reached 1,627 pledged delegates. At that point, it will literally be mathematically impossible for Hillary to catch up in pledged delegates - there won't be enough of them left.

At that point, it's over. In theory, she could still try poaching superdelegates, but that option is looking more and more unlikely every day - the superdelegates know they will cause a civil war in the party if they go against the will of the voters as expressed in the pledged delegates.

[elocs]

1. Here is a probably right prediction: Hillary will be done-done sooner or later.

Unfortunately her scorched earth policy to win the nomination at all costs, to do anything or say anything to hurt Obama trumps and potential consequences her actions will have in contributing to a loss in the general election.

[backscatter712]

2. Let's hope the party can unite after this poo-flinging contest.

Certainly, the primary will eventually end, and the math shows that Obama has already almost certainly won it.

But I'll just say that May 20th, when Obama gets that 1627th delegate, that will be one big nail in Hillary's campaign's coffin.

[SoonerPride]

3. She will run out of money before then.

She can't keep the lights on or buy gas for her bus.

[nsd]

4. I think it'll be a little earlier.

I agree she won't quit right after Pennsylvania, but Indiana and North Carolina are scheduled to vote on May 6. Obama is heavily favored in North Carolina, but Indiana is thought to be a tossup. Given his momentum, I think Obama's going to win Indiana and that victory will be the one that finally convinces Clinton to suspend her campaign. (On a related note, it'll probably also kill her fundraising efforts.)