Sweet Home Alabama: Why Obama will win the Pennsylvania Primary (Gallup Data)

[tiptoe]

Sweet Home Alabama: Why Obama will win the Pennsylvania Primary

TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupPA.htm

On Super Tuesday, Obama won the Alabama primary by 56.2 – 41.8. It has been said that between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is just like Alabama. If so, Obama will close the deal on April 22.

In order for Obama to increase his national lead over Hillary from 48 – 44 on March 26 to 52 – 42 on 3/29 in Gallup's 3-day tracking poll, he had to win the one-day 3/29 poll by 54 – 38!

With the Casey (D-PA) endorsement, who would bet against Obama taking PA?
Only Diebold and ES&S.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm

                      Gallup Tracking Poll       
 
Event         Date     3-day  Avg        1-day  
 
                       BO     HRC      BO     HRC
 
              3/9      49     44       49     44
                       48     45       47     46
                       47     45       45     45
                       48     46       52     47
                       50     44       53     40
Rev Wright
                       49     46       42     51
                       48     45       49     44
              3/16     45     47       44     46
                       44     47       39     51
Obama speech
                       42     49       43     50
                       43     48       47     43
              3/20     45     47       45     48
                       48     45       52     44
                       47     46       44     46
Snipergate
              3/24     47     45       45     45
                       47     46       52     47
 
              3/26     48     44       47     40
                       50     42       51     39
                       50     43       51     49
              3/29     52     42       54     38* 

*calculated

[goldcanyonaz]

1. *giggles*

:rofl:

[SoonerPride]

2. plonk

[ampad]

3. Did ignore say something?

We could possible have an upset there which I am soo hoping for to finally end this thing. I'm not holding my breath though.

[Cha]

21. Ignore said nothing as usual...

SWEET HOME ALABAMA

[Bensthename]

4. Obama has 1. Money 2. Momentum 3. time.. He will when with these on his side.

[Bullet1987]

5. I'll wait for the PA polls to come out before I start getting happy.

We'll see what has happened when that poll that showed Obama within 10 has changed...and if so, in what direction?

[NJSecularist]

6. Don't get your hopes up about Obama winning PA... he won't.

He may come close, but he won't win.

Obama's campaign is doing an admirable job of lowering expectations, however.

[Avalux]

7. I wouldn't be too sure about that. I'm not expecting a win BUT....

The people I know from Altoona and State College sure are excited about him. My parents registered as Democrats for the first time in their lives to vote for him (because they like him).

PA might surprise everyone. ;-)

[meow mix]

8. lowering expectations? i thought PA loss was expected.. since about 6 months ago.

if anything they have raised the expectation

[Zynx]

9. While the Gallup data was sound, the Alabama statement was so stupid.

Alabama demographically is so different from central PA that they cannot be compared. They have similar voting percentages, but that's about it.

[tiptoe]

20. Carville made the statement originally. nt

[Zynx]

23. You know what he meant.

[pocoloco]

10. Lynyrd endorse Obama?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHsDa9_HSlA&feature=related

[Pirate Smile]

11. Obama isn't going to win Penn. Hopefully, he can keep it to under 10.

Hillary needs to win it by 25% - she needs a Virginia-sized blow-out.

[democrattotheend]

12. Central PA is like white Alabama

And Obama only got like 25% of the white vote in Alabama.

[Sinistrous]

18. As a resident of the "T", I concur in your comparison.

[Tarc]

13. This is the same cute/naive analysis that the O-Bots had for Ohio and Texas

and it will come to the same end.

[jakem]

14. Obama won Texas.

or didnt you hear?

[SoCalDem]

15. HRC won the (non-counting) popular..Obama won the delegates

She won the silver-plated pie pan.. he ATE the PIE :rofl:

[Tarc]

16. That he snaked and weaseled more delegates is unfortunate

due to the inherently undemocratic nature of the Texas Two-Step voting system. But the will of the Democratic voters is clearly expressed in the popular vote, which Clinton won by 100,000 votes and 4 delegates.

[GarbagemanLB]

22. I wonder how many of those were Rush fans who heard Bill on his show earlier that day...

[foo_bar]

27. you can't blame Obama people for the OP

7/21/2004 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 97.4%, 329EV, 52.92%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x583266

7/24/2004 KERRY: 98.4% WIN PROBABILITY with 331 EV and 53.16% of vote

THE MEDIA IS PUTTING OUT BS ABOUT KERRY'S CHANCES
THESE NUMBERS ARE THE REAL DEAL.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2057745

There has been misinformation put out by a number of sources
(AP, MSNBC, FOX, CNN) regarding Kerry's current poll numbers and his prospects of winning.

Hopefully this will clear things up.

KERRY IS AHEAD IN VIRTUALLY EVERY NATIONAL POLL. HIS
PROBABILITY OF WINNING, BASED ON PROJECTING HIS VOTING % FOR
EACH POLL AND AVERAGING THE RESULTS RANGES FROM 91-99%.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVES HIM A 96.89% PROBABILITY OF
WINNING, ASSUMING HE GETS 70% OF THE OTHER/UNDECIDED VOTE.

My 7/24 Kerry EV simulation analysis shows he has a 98.4%
probability of winning the election, based on probabilities
of winning each state.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2060158

[rox63]

17. I don't expect Obama to win PA

But I think he could make it very close. I do expect him to win NC, OR, SD and MT by a large margin, and IN by a smaller margin. I expect Clinton to win WV and KY by a comfy margin. I have no idea about PR and Guam, although I wouldn't be suprised to see Clinton win them. Overall, it will still end up with Obama winning the most delegates, votes, primaries and caucuses, and as a result, the nomination.

[Alter Ego]

19. I think I'll still be betting against him, thanks...although it'll be much

closer than we all think.

Don't move the narrative, people--the Clinton people expect to win PA by a huge margin and if we can shrink that to within 10% it'll be a good sharp shock for them and a boost going into NC and IN.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. If you bet against him, you're giving more than 5/1

The current PA trading price is roughly 84/16 in favor of Hillary.

The Casey endorsement hasn't moved the betting line a fraction of one percent.

Alabama and Pennsylvania, similar? Only if Alabama finds sudden need to import Eat 'n Park.

The Obama speculators on Intrade won't be dense enough to move the betting line to even money again, as they hilariously managed in CA and OH. But if so, I'll happily swarm in and steal another one by wagering on Hillary.

Obama doesn't need PA. Doesn't TIA ever take a break from fraud paranoia? Now he's setting up a 5/1 favorite as beneficiary of election fraud if she wins.

[tiptoe]

25. "Obama Overtakes Clinton in PA" - new odds on Clinton? ...perhaps a new "favorite"??

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf
Survey of 1224 likely
Pennsylvania Democratic
primary voters

Should the "odds" on the presently-5/1 favorite in PA change somewhat?

[easy_b94]

26. Last week I didn't he had a chance to win PA but Now....

Yes He can Win PA