The Clinton Campaign has flatlined - Fairy Tale on life support

[grantcart]

When this campaign started Hillary had 42% of the voters in the Democratic Party.

When you have 6 or even 3 candidates that is a formidable number.

When you have 2 it is a disaster. Hillary's numbers are firm - they don't go down much and they don't go up much.

The idea that there is going to be a dramatic upsurge in support for the Clinton campaign can best be understood by Bill Clinton's phrase "Give me a break - this is the biggest fairy tale I have ever heard"

Stand back and look at the trend line for 2008. Hillary Clinton is exactly at the same point she was when she started the year.

This is a Fairy Tale and the line looks like a reading off of a comatose victim that is on life support




And looking more closely at the more immediate trend the prognosis seems to be worse.

[Oleladylib]

1. I'm seeing pretty much a draw ...which says hang in there!

[grantcart]

2. Your opthomologist called and your new glasses are in

In the last three months Hillary is where she started.

Obama has gone from 38 to 52%.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

18. State-of-the-art quadrifocals...

[grantcart]

52. lol

[scheming daemons]

3. Wow..... you must've gotten great math grades in school....

51-43 = A TIE!


:eyes:

[grantcart]

53. the power of positive attitude over numbers

[Yael]

6. Yeah -- this is a real nail biter!!

However will it end??

[elixir]

30. President Hillary Clinton

[grantcart]

33. I for one look forward to the day that we will have a candidate that can unite

the country around that banner.

[jgraz]

34. Simple Question : how exactly does Hillary win the nomination and the White House?

I've yet to hear a single workable idea from a Hillary supporter for how she can win the nomination, let alone the general election.


For example:

Obama wins the pledged delegates. (foregone conclusion at this point)

Obama wins the popular vote. (also a foregone conclusion at this point)

FL and MI are not counted. (Also a foregone conclusion. But even if they somehow are counted, Obama still wins delegates and popular vote.)

30% (in the worst case) of the remaining superdelegates decide that it's a bad idea to take the Democratic nomination away from the winning black candidate and give it to the losing white candidate.

Nomination: Obama.


Obama then uses his opposition to the Iraq war to club McSame into submission, tying him to * at every opportunity. If Obama has time, he also makes McLame look like an idiot on the economy.

General Election: Obama



Your turn.

[grantcart]

35. Hillary has more account payables

[jgraz]

38. An excellent point. She'll be better on the budget because she's handled more unpaid debt.

:thumbsup:


(and it's "accounts payable" -- like attorneys general :hi: )


Edit: any bets on whether elixer will have an answer for me?

[bhikkhu]

60. That's a very presidential attitude, by the way:

"debt doesn't matter"

[Yael]

43. Yes, and accountants from every state are having to create new aging buckets

in order to track them.

[burythehatchet]

9. Well of course. How could you possibly see anything else

without the help of medication and therapy.

[NDambi]

13. ha ha...delusional

[grantcart]

20. well it does explain a lot

[Mooney]

19. If "Jane" has 43 apples, and "Johnny" has 51 apples...

... do "Jane" and "Johnny" have the same number of apples?

(Hint: No.)

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

21. 43 hillary apples =51 barack apples Everyone knows this.

[grantcart]

22. Clinton response

But there are still 4 apples left


And I have a very sharp knife.


Now if I win the next four apples and cut your apples into halves and cut my apples into thirds I will have more apples than you.

[Mooney]

26. It's fucking ludicrous.

The "logic" is making my head spin.

[grantcart]

28. well then your ready for the next stage of the argument

"My apples are redder than yours"

[Mooney]

32. The red ones don't count.

Only republicans will eat the red ones in November.

[grantcart]

37. You forgot to add the apples that we dropped off at Mildred and Florences.

[helderheid]

42. Perfect!

:rofl:

[JMDEM]

59. Clinton Response

But there are still 4 apples left


And I have a very sharp knife.

So give me your apples, or else!

[Crunchy Frog]

45. Yes, but Jane's 43 apples are the "significant" ones.

Johnny's, not so much.

[grantcart]

47. Well they do have better curves

[TheDonkey]

62. duuuuuuuuuuhhhhh.......

*sticks hands in mouth*

This math is so complicated!!

[Life Long Dem]

44. Your the one who also saw WMD's in Iraq correct?

[NightWatcher]

4. Roy Orbison said it best

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMiNRr5hSYM

[grantcart]

5. He has the perfect song for almost every occasion

[Cheap_Trick]

10. next up for the hillbots....

we'll dedicate Roy's "Crying"......

meanwhile, enjoy this spanish rendition of Crying by Rebekah Del Rio, used in the season finale of Prison Break:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hueR7fiCNCg

[grantcart]

49. lol si si puede

[RememberWellstone]

7. More graveyard whislting

It does'nt work, Hill is in it to win it, the sooner you Oompas realize that, the better off you will be.

[Cheap_Trick]

8. "in it to win it"?

bwa ha ha.....and if she doesn't "win it"?

[damntexdem]

24. She's in it to win it or ruin it.

And the second is so-much-likely than the first. Hopefully, she'll be thwarted from doing either.

[grantcart]

11. graveyard whistling? more like ICU chart looking

Can you deny the basic fact of the OP that in the last three months the Clinton campaign has not progressed one iota.

And if it hasn't happened in the last three months why would it change now?

[Sinistrous]

12. I believe it is time to introduce the term "Pyrrhic Victory" into the debate here.

Yes, Mrs. Clinton is "in it to win it", and at ANY cost.

Sinistrous

[grantcart]

14. how about a 'pyrrihic loss'?

[Sinistrous]

40. Ok. But for the metaphorically impaired:

IF Mrs. Clinton were to obtain the nomenation, THEN her victory would be "Pyrrhic"

[grantcart]

41. and they would be 'pyrrhic pigs' flying lol

[redqueen]

15. A pyrrhic defeat is more like it. (nt)

[Forkboy]

61. Another poster said McCain winning would be a "consolation prize" for Hillary supporters.

Sums up some of their thinking. :puke:

[Erin Elizabeth]

16. But...but....

Bill said to "chill the fuck out!"



(Ok he said "chill out." But I think he meant "chill the fuck out, Y'ALL.")

[damntexdem]

25. But he meant it in the plural sense -- so it's:

"chill the fuck out, all y'all."

[Erin Elizabeth]

36. Or.....

"All y'all mothafuckas better chill the fuck out before I come down there and lay a Big Dog slapdown on you. You don't WANT me to slap you with MY dick."

I think that was the quote in the AP story.

(Hee.)

[grantcart]

54. what he really said was I made an agreement with my wife and you guys

are fucking it up and now I am in deep shit

[JayFredMuggs]

17. Brilliant summary of Hillary's "career"

For those of us with reading glasses.

[damntexdem]

23. And she got about 40% of the delegates in the Texas two-step country conventions on Saturday.

She got about 25% in our senate district. And I and my wife are going to the state convention in June as alternates for Obama. Hopefully we'll increase the percentage for Obama there. In any case, Obama will almost certainly have a majority of the Texas pledged delegation to the national convention, on the basis of a big edge from the caucus process, way overwhelming Billary's slight edge from the primary-election process.

[JayFredMuggs]

27. Well, then, if THAT's the case in TX...

Hillary will say Texas doesn't count.

Only states BIGGER than TX will count!

LOL

[grantcart]

57. AP has now awarded Texas to Obama

[Cha]

29. bil clinton is seeing his "Biggest Fairy Tale"

become his worst nightmare and the best reality for our country.

[mrJJ]

31. TX Caucus results

Burnt Orange Report

http://www.burntorangereport.com/

90% counted ... Projection

Sen Obama 37 Caucus Delegates Sen Clinton 30 Caucus Delegates


County by County... Still updating

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pCVgf3tYDGBevq1NB-GJHdw

[grantcart]

48. now 100% in Obama 98 delegates Clinton 95

[Scurrilous]

39. K & R

:thumbsup:

[cottonseed]

46. It's clear Democrats have made their choice.

I along with the majority of Democratic voters wish we could just start working on McCain. The Clintons dragging this out is just silly at this point.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

50. it is mathematically impossible for her to win

unless there is some bizarre catastrophe.

And that wouldn't be a positive way for her to win.

[Bonobo]

51. Kick.

[Lord Helmet]

55. it's a lame charade

[nsd]

56. Kick.

[grantcart]

58. *******Breaking News AP: Obama wins Texas********

The Associated Press is considered to be the definitive arbitrator of delegate counts has given the state to Obama based on Saturday's County Convention. Up till now the state was listed as a tie awaiting clearer results
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i_QDnA56kHa3qYl41FUY...

Obama Wins Most Texas Delegates



WASHINGTON (AP) — Sen. Barack Obama has won the overall delegate race in Texas thanks to a strong showing in Democratic county conventions this past weekend.

Obama picked up seven of nine outstanding delegates, giving him a total of 99 Texas delegates to the party's national convention this summer. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won the other two, giving her a total of 94 Texas delegates, according to an analysis of returns by The Associated Press.

Texas Democrats held both a presidential primary and caucus. Clinton narrowly won the popular vote in the state's primary March 4, earning her 65 national convention delegates to Obama's 61.

Precinct caucuses began immediately after polls closed primary night and quickly devolved into chaos in many parts of the state because of an unprecedented turnout of more than 1 million Democrats. The state party was never able to provide complete results from the caucuses, which is why the AP withheld nine delegates.

The precinct caucuses elected delegates to about 280 county and state senate district conventions on Saturday. The AP awarded the remaining delegates based on results from Saturday's conventions, showing Obama with about 58 percent of vote, compared to 42 percent for Clinton.

Obama won 38 delegates through the caucus/convention system, and Clinton won 29.

The final delegate allocation will be decided at the party's state convention June 6-7, and the numbers could change if either campaign is unable to maintain the level of support they had over the weekend.

Obama leads the overall race for the Democratic nomination with 1,631 delegates, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Clinton has 1,501, according to the latest AP tally.

Buddhist Democrat

[grantcart]

63. **Breaking Gallup: Democrats and Republicans agree Obama tougher candidate against McCain

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Panel survey finds a majority of both Republicans and Democrats saying Barack Obama has a better chance than Hillary Clinton of defeating Republican John McCain in the November presidential election.








The survey was conducted March 24-27, interviewing a nationally representative sample of 1,005 Gallup Panel members. Democrats were asked whether Clinton or Obama has the better chance of defeating McCain in November: 59% say Obama does; 30% say Clinton. Republicans were asked whether McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton or Obama on Election Day. Sixty-four percent say McCain has a better chance of beating Clinton, compared with only 22% choosing Obama, meaning Republicans view Obama as the more formidable candidate

Implications

Clearly at this point, the party rank-and-file thinks Obama would present a stronger challenge to McCain in the fall than Clinton would. Those attitudes could certainly change over the remainder of the campaign, but it is notable that Obama maintains a wide lead in these perceptions shortly after the Jeremiah Wright controversy knocked his campaign off stride.

Also, the poll shows there is a fairly widely held belief among party supporters -- including a plurality of Clinton supporters -- that the ongoing campaign is hurting their chances of winning in November. It seems unlikely those attitudes would improve much going forward, particularly if the tone of the Democratic campaign remains negative. If so, then it is likely there would be further calls for Clinton to drop out of the race, and that would put more pressure on her to do well in the Pennsylvania primary on April 22 and all the contests that follow.

[Two Americas]

64. that is a toss up

That looks like a dead heat and a toss up if ever I saw one. Compare those charts to primaries from the past where we did have a clear winner to see the stark contrast. Politics, especially nominations, are not similar to a football game where you kick a last minute field goal or run out the clock. The "losing" team consists of OUR team mates, and smashing them into the ground, mocking and taunting and ridiculing them as "losers," is not any sort of win even if you have the "math" on your side.

Also, in the last reporting period on both of those graphs Clinton is moving up and Obama is moving down, and the race was already extremely tight.

Also, those are likely voters who are registered Democratic that are being surveyed there, if I am not mistaken, and winning the nomination is not the real win, winning the general is; especially when the "win" in the primaries is by such a tiny margin.

I think what this tells us, and what we can safely say, is that we as Democrats have failed to reach anything approaching consensus on a candidate. I also think it is safe to say that millions of Democrats do not think that either of these two candidates will be very strong in the general. We can also say with some credence that either of these two candidates may very well motivate the opposition more than they do the Democratic party.

Given all of that, the race is not over, no one has won, no one should drop out, and we should be open to the possibility of a brokered convention, and to choosing another candidate who will do better in the general and who is not so polarizing within the party.



Please read the fine print:

* I am not a Clinton fan or supporter

* I will, as I have for the past 40 years, work for and vote for the eventual nominee

[grantcart]

65. In the longer run the graph shows that Clinton has gone up and down within

a narrow margin. She is at almost exactly where she started the year at.


There is no surprise to this. Poli Sci 101 shows that if a candidate has high negatives then it is almost impossible to establish growth in positives - the negatives always trump the positives.


Obama has gone from the mid 30s to over 50% so I am not sure what you are referring to as the

quote
Also, in the last reporting period on both of those graphs Clinton is moving up and Obama is moving down, and the race was already extremely tight



The latest Gallup polls show widespread agreement that Obama will be a tougher opponent against McCain.

[Two Americas]

66. yes

Your main point, that Clinton's support is static, I agree with - because, as you say "if a candidate has high negatives then it is almost impossible to establish growth in positives."

I am no Clinton supporter. But the truth is that Obama has failed to put her away, and many of us doubt that he would be much better in the general, and for many of us there are just not sufficient or significant political differences between the two to make this very exciting or interesting. Clinton's high negatives may be a more important factor, but that is all the more reason to not measure Obama's success by Clinton's failure, any more than we should ever be saying "they are better than Republicans" as an endorsement of Democrats.

[grantcart]

67. This you tube shows that Obama had a careful professional plan

and they have played it out exactly as planned. The thing is that he has 'put her away' but she is still able to run because she has money. In the past campaigns stopped for only one reason - not enough cash. She is finished but she can continue to run.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAPkoqW-yWo

[Two Americas]

68. no doubt about that

No doubt that the big money players decide who are candidates will be. I don't think either of the two remaining candidates would still be in the race were it not for the big money people being comfortable with them.

One interesting thing that I have noticed about the Obama campaign, is that for whatever his message may be he apparently doesn't communicate it to his supporters in a way that they can pass it on to others. Right from the beginning, when I asked people to describe their reasons for supporting him they referred me somewhere else - "read his book" and "see his website" and "listen to his speeches." Also, some of the earliest and strongest Obama supporters, and people I trust and admire, have admitted to me that they don't expect him to be able to win and are not supporting him for that reason. They support him because they *want* him to win, because they want to live in a country where he could win, because they see him as a symbol, as some sort of litmus test, and his candidacy as performance art. If the general public rejects him and his candidacy, well then the general public is wrong. This seems to be an enormous gamble to me.

I am sure you can see why this causes concerns for some of us. First, a candidacy whose appeal is based on "getting" it - being able to intuit something about him - may be a dangerous gamble in the general. Secondly, we as Democrats chronically go for the consolation prize in politics - being "right - rather than going for results. That too has crippled us in general elections.

I am not saying that I am certain I am right in this analysis, nor trying to convince you that I am. But there are serious and well thought out reasons for having reservations about the Obama candidacy.