PA POLL: Hillary 47 (-2), Obama 42 (+3)

[jefferson_dem]

RASMUSSEN POLL: Clinton Lead Shrinking in PA; Clinton 47% Obama 42%...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/pennsylvania/toplines_pennsylvania_democratic_primary_march_31_2008

[Hope And Change]

1. WoW.Something is hapening!

[jefferson_dem]

2. Five point surge for the "Good Guy" in one week.

Tasty trend! :bounce:

[Hope And Change]

3. Pennsylvania doesn`t count

:sarcasm:

[slinkerwink]

10. I already posted this earlier. Hopefully it's not April Fool's joke.

[Coexist]

16. that was my thought - no way he closed the gap like that.

[SunsetDreams]

18. never know...

look at how fast he jumped nationwide on Gallop

One poll, other than Rasmussen had him within 10 points the other day.

[slinkerwink]

20. yeah

[dailykoff]

26. Not like it hasn't happened before

like every frickin time they show up in a state!

:woohoo:

[SunsetDreams]

31. too many times to count...

I agree, this happens everytime.

[demokatgurrl]

84. Does Rasmussen have that kind of sense of humor? n/t

[SunsetDreams]

4. are you getting this from drudge too?

I will be stoked if this really turns out to be true.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

34. The link is to Ras, not drudge. n/t

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

5. Hillary, please pick up the red courtesy phone. . . .

[Hutzpa]

54. Say

:hi:

[crankychatter]

6. good morning

k/r

[SunsetDreams]

30. good morning :)

[usregimechange]

7. Hell yes!

[usregimechange]

8. Where are you getting this at?

[jefferson_dem]

11. The website that shall not be linked to here...

He's a scumbag but he's never been wrong on these early poll release teasers.

[irish.lambchop]

9. 'Hillary, you are the weakest link. Good-bye.'

Senator Obama has a damn fine ground campaign - connecting with people where they work and play along with huge rallies.

[Strelnikov_]

12. gobama n/t

[berni_mccoy]

13. Hallelujah! GOBAMA!

[Adelante]

14. Let it be so nt

[rox63]

15. It's not on the Rasmussen site yet

But I'll check again later this morning.

[SunsetDreams]

17. From what I've seen in another thread...

Rasmussen won't show up until 12pmEST

[mohc]

19. No article yet, but the toplines are there

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/pennsylvania/toplines_pennsylvania_democratic_primary_march_31_2008">http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/pennsylvania/toplines_pennsylvania_democratic_primary_march_31_2008

[mohc]

24. Interesting to note

PA Democratic Primary Voters say Obama is more likely than Clinton to beat McCain in this poll: 45 - 43.

And perhaps more interesting, almost as many PA Democratic Primary voters want Obama to drop out (18%) as want Clinton to drop out (21%).

[jefferson_dem]

28. Thanks for the link.

I have updated the OP.

[mohc]

38. Full article is up now

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary">http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

Only new info is the sad numbers of how many Clinton or Obama supporters will vote for the other against McCain if their candidate is not the nominee.

[BeyondGeography]

21. Time to move those goalposts again

Puerto Rico, anyone?

[SwampG8r]

33. lol puerto rico?

ive been there a few times and i think when they go into the booth.....

most of the puerto ricans will vote for the guy who looks like them

i dont believe a fair interpretation of obamas appeal there has been made
after all
isnt it usually over way before we hear from peurto rico?
i myself, from personal involvement in P.R., kinda think obamas gonna walk away with it

[Cha]

79. Good points!

I'm glad all these states and countries get to be involved..it's just too bad hilary isn't running on her issues instead of lying about Obama's.

[Cha]

77. Puerto Rico report from DUer Katz..

Obama is winning the support of the top politicians in Puerto Rico

He's got the top Democratic figure in the Popular Democratic Party, Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila (yes, a corrupt man but that's Puerto Rican politics for you) and his delegation in the House and Senate (about 30 congressmen in total), the Vice-President and candidate for Resident Comissioner from the New Progressive Party, Pedro Pierluisi, the President of the Party of Puerto Ricans for Puerto Rico Rogelio Martinez, the daughter of the founder of the Popular Democratic Party, Victoria Muñoz Mendoza...

I'm telling you- Hillary Clinton is not realizing it, but Democrats in Puerto Rico are moving towards Obama in a big way. The fact that two of the top figures of the two biggest parties in PR are supporting Barack should tell you that she might be in for the biggest surprise of the campaign season.

If the trend continues, Obama will win PR.

Update: Also supporting Obama are Alfredo Salazar, the man that was supposed to be Vila's running mate in November (Vila will not run because of the corruption scandal), Alejandro Garcia Padilla (the man most people think will run for Governor for the Popular Democratic Party in November) and Eduardo Bhatia, chief of the Office of Puerto Rican Affairs in Washington DC.

Simply, Puerto Rico is Obama Country!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5337628

[dailykoff]

22. Casey at the bat.

Just sayin'.

:woohoo:

[Irishman26]

23. Even if this poll is true, I'm still not holding out much hope...

for PA. There were a number of polls that showed it close right before OH too. Then she won by 10. Now, if she only wins by 10 in PA, it won't do much damage to his lead and I'll be pretty happy with that. I just don't put a lot of stock in these polls that show a single digit race. PA figures to cater to Clinton even more than OH did. Hopefully I'm wrong though.

[SunsetDreams]

27. The release of the White House Documents could

have something to do with this, and the Bosnia sniper story

[cali]

29. It won't do any damage to him if she wins by 10 pts or so in PA

and I too will take that result happily.

And welcome to DU

:hi:

[slinkerwink]

32. as long as he comes within 10 points of Clinton in the final results....

I'm ok with that.

[quantass]

43. I agree w/ you...i'd just be happy with him losing by 10-15pts

-- anything less is a BIG SURPRISE!

So i hope everyone here doesn't now expect final results of less than 10 or a possible win for him....that is too much to ask for considering as how this is OH on steroids!!

[thewiseguy]

55. Polls suggested gains for Hillary right before the Ohio primary

So the polls were pretty much correct in Ohio.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

Zogby was the only poll that was suggesting a tie there.

[Vinca]

25. Pennsylvania will not be the sweep the Clintons are anticipating. nt

[Medusa]

35. Wow that negative campaign she's running sure is paying off for her!

Isn't she supposed to win in PA by at LEAST 10 points? :evilgrin:

[slinkerwink]

36. I do think she'll win by 10 points

[DerekJ]

37. 11* Which candidate would do better against John McCain in the general election…Barack Obama or Hill

11* Which candidate would do better against John McCain in the general election…Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton?


45% Obama

43% Clinton

11% Not sure

[slinkerwink]

39. Glad Obama's in the lead

[beachmom]

40. It's just one poll. Let's wait and see if this is an outlier or something real, AND

is it sustainable. I'm with the others that Clinton will easily win this state, but hopefully not a blowout.

[Colobo]

45. Let's hope he'll close the gap!

[my3boyz]

41. Clinton will win this state but I would LOVE for it to be within 10 pts. nt

[MadBadger]

42. I told you this would happen. I think he's gonna win this thing.

[Lucky 13]

51. Obama's going to pull a BIG upset.

He's started something big in PA. 22,000 show up at Penn State to see him? Unreal. He's registering voters at the speed of light. Endorsements from "The Bus" and Franco Harris carry more weight in Western PA than people realize. Western PA isn't a red or blue...it's black and gold. That photo op at the US Steel plant with those two was just the thing that could swing the Pittsburgh region to Obama.

Compare that to Ed Rendell, who looks like a buffoon this morning after his comments on Fox and being featured on KO's Worst Person in the World. Hillary is CLEARLY desperate, and people are NOTICING that maniacal look in her eyes. The poll numbers shrink for Hillary daily. Just a few days ago, her supporters were touting the Rasmussen poll as evidence that she's beating the pants off Obama, despite the fact that other polls like Gallup, for example, showed a much closer race. Now even Rasmussen has this thing as close.

Can we win Pennsylvania?

YES WE CAN.

I'm a cynic. BIG TIME. And maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but that doesn't happen too often for me. I kinda like it.

GOBAMA.

[mod mom]

44. Her problems telling the truth are catching up with her!

[Undercurrent]

46. Hope this is the begining of the end!

[LiveLiberally]

47. In order for Obama to come within 5-8 points in PA....

the last polls before the primary should have them almost neck and neck -- because the late "undecideds" are likely to break for Clinton.

[Tribetime]

48. holy toledo batman is there hope in them there hills

[MattNC]

49. skeptical

I'm an Obama supporter, but I'm skeptical that it's actually this close. Rasmussen has been reporting a very different picture in a number of states compared to other polling orgs. Still, the trend compared to their last poll is noticeable.

[rox63]

50. Linky here, straight from Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

[Kermit77]

52. Expect the Clintons to attack Obama today

Thank you Bob Casey. He is really helping Obama with the white working class vote. Their bus tour is a success.

Expect the Clintons to launch another nuclear attack against Obama today. Maybe "He might be a muslim" or "I would have left that pastor" or "He doesn't love this country".

[demokatgurrl]

86. that is amazing. Maybe the Casey effect. n/t

[Barack_America]

53. From the front-page of Philly.com....Rendell = LOL!

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/politics/Poll_shows_Obama_closing_PA_gap.html

Poll shows Obama closing PA gap

Will Bunch reports here and on his blog, Attytood:

For the last week, Barack Obama has been grabbing and then extending a national lead among Democratic primary voters. But it was unclear whether that mojo extended to Pennsylvania, where Hillary Clinton's support -- especially among blue-collar whites -- appeared rock solid.

Now comes the first evidence that Obama is closing the gap in Pennsylvania: a new Rasmussen Reports poll.

The poll of 730 Democratic primary voters in the Keystone State, dated yesterday, shows Clinton's once double-digit lead over Obama is down to just five points -- 47 percent to 42 percent -- with 11 percent not certain who'd they vote for.

The poll suggests that news accounts what Clinton called -- in a meeting with the Daily News editoral board last week -- "a misstatement" over sniper fire during a 1996 trip to Bosnia have definitely hurt the New York senator. Some 40 percent of the Democrats surveyed said the Bosnia flap will be "very important" or "somewhat important" in how they vote here on April 22. The Pennsylvanians also told the pollsters that the economy is by far the No. 1 issue to them, and a whopping 91 percent said that the economy is getting worse these days.

As with previous polls, the numbers suggest resentment from the primary battle may carry over into the fall campaign against Republican John McCain -- even more so if Obama is the nominee. Some 22 percent of Democrats called it either "not very likely" or "not at all likely" that they'd vote for Obama in the fall, while the comparable number for Clinton is 17 percent. Despite that, a narrow margin -- 45-to-43 percent -- believed that Obama has a better chance of winning the overall general election. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

One note of local interest: Gov. Rendell's aggressive promotion of the Clinton campaign has not done wonders for his standing among his fellow Pennsylvania Democrats. Some 47 percent say he's only doing a "fair" or "poor" job.

Here's some analysis of the numbers from Rasmussen:

Obama recently received a key endorsement from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey and has also spent more on television ads than Clinton. If Obama is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State, it would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama currently leads Clinton nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, while an Obama victory could end the nomination battle, Clinton remains ahead in the state and recently demonstrated her ability to finish strong in the Ohio and Texas Primaries.

And this BEFORE the FoxNews comment and being named Olbermann's "Worst Person in the World"!

:rofl:

[Tatiana]

56. This is an outlier. More like a 10-12 spread between them. n/t

[thewiseguy]

57. No this is not an outlier

There are not any recent polls on Pennsylvania. Numbers change.

[izzybeans]

67. An outlier is an atypical reponse on a particular survey

This is a poll with its own outliers. The same with any poll.

Whether it is a trend or not, we will see.

[ORDem]

58. Kick!

:kick:

[NJSecularist]

59. Time for Hillary to throw another kitchen sink at Obama. n/t

[snooper2]

78. She had to pawn it for some cash...

All she has left to throw is hot air :rofl:

[book_worm]

60. Good news, but I still expect Hill will win PA

but if we can keep it under ten then it's a moral victory for Obama.

[jenmito]

61. No wonder Ed Rendell said (this morning) that a convincing win" would be 5-7 points!!!

He keeps trying to lower the bar (as do the other Hillary surrogates). He said if she has a convincing win in PA, beating Obama by 5 or 6 or 7 points, she'll have momentum which will carry her to a victory in the POPULAR vote, resulting in a collapse of Obama's argument as to why he should be the nominee. :eyes:

[writes3000]

63. And we need to keep calling them on it. They've gotten away with it TOO long. n/t

[NJSecularist]

64. Where did he say this?

[jenmito]

80. On Morning Joe this morning. n/t

[anonymous171]

62. Isn't that still inside the MOE though?

[backscatter712]

65. Five point spread. NICE! Watch those expectations.

Remember, fellow Obamaniacs: Operate under realistic expectations. Assume that we're going to lose Pennsylvania. It's a tough state. That said, do your damnedest to try to win it, and hopefully we do win it, but realistically, it will be tough. And realistically, unless Hillary blows us out of the water, by 25 points, which is very unlikely now, she's toast.

Or put it as the old Kos diary puts it - run as if you're 30 points behind!

[TwilightGardener]

71. He's not going to win PA--it's Hillary country. My expectation is

that he can keep it from being a blowout--that's what I'm hoping for.

[backscatter712]

73. No, but losing by only five would be fantastic!

That's quite an accomplishment in Archie Bunker land!

Still. Realistic expectations. That was the mistake of Ohio. Obama actually did a terrific job in Ohio - he only lost by ten points there, when everyone was expecting him to lose by up to 20 points.

But Hillary was allowed to frame the contest - if Obama had spoken up a little more about how he expected to do, and set realistic expectations, he could have framed it as a victory, but instead, Hillary was able to create the false impression that she won Ohio by a landslide.

Put a optimistic, but at the same time, realistic frame on the anticipated results, and we can exercise more control over the media narrative. One that makes sense for us, but makes Hillary sound like Baghdad Bob even if she does win Pennsylvania.

[rndmprsn]

66. K&R

[wowimthere]

68. Rendell... full of s#*t!

He goes on MSNBC talking about how clinton can pull even with Obama on the Popular vote but here's the thing. He only cites the states she can win in coming closer to the popular vote margin. He doesn't even mention the states Obama is going to win that pushes the popular vote count higher for her to win. He must think we're really dumb. He must be talking to her supporters becasue latte drinking liberals don't fall that kind of bull. This is why I want these kinds of politicians gone. How can you exclude North Carolina, Indiana and other states Obama is sure to win which will give Obama an insurmountable cushion?

Then he wants to count Florida and Michigan. What does he know something that we don't know if they were to do a revote? From what I'm hearing, Michigan would probably go for Obama right now.

[TTUBatfan2008]

69. Can someone tell me...

what the Rendell comment on Fox was? I honestly haven't seen anything about it. Thanks.

[ej510]

70. I think it's more like a 10-15 point lead for Sen. Clinton.

jmo.

[writes3000]

72. Beware Obama supporters: If you accept this as "truth"...

You will start to fall into the hands of the Clinton team who likes to raise expectations for Obama unrealistically, so they can then crow about how he didn't meet them.

I'm encouraged by the trend but I'm going to keep my expectations very conservative.

If Obama stays within ten in PA, given all of the support Hillary's been given there, it will be a major, major victory for him.

[backscatter712]

74. REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS!!!

Put a positive, but realistic frame on Pennsylvania. It's possible we'll win, but a win is very difficult to achieve. Certainly we should go for the victory, but at the same time, we should accept and expect a possible loss, and hold off on the wailing and flailing should we lose.

And we should remember the score. We're way ahead in delegates. Clinton needs to win PA by a sick landslide - at least 30 points just to put an appreciable dent in the delegate count.

If Clinton only wins by five, or ten or even fifteen points, it won't be enough. She won't catch up in delegates, or even in popular vote.

We should treat a loss by ten points as a victory. Because according to the only metric that matters, it will be a victory.

[Cha]

75. Time for hilary to go out and start

shieking her lies from the tallest rooftops.

[snooper2]

76. na na na na...

na na na na...
:headbang:


hey hey hey..
:headbang:


GOOOOOODBY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:headbang: :headbang: :headbang: :headbang: :headbang:

[ClayZ]

If it is the same thing that happened at our WA caucus,

Pennsylvania is about to be astounded. The poor Hillary people at our caucus could not believe that there were 4 times as many people than the last caucus. Just my little precinct of 37 people had 30 for OBAMA and 7 old, old-timers for hillary. The new, old-timers (us and 3 other couples) for Obama, were all new to the process.

I hope that is WHAT is happening in Pennsylvania!

[ClayZ]

81. If it is the same thing that happened at our WA caucus,

Pennsylvania is about to be astounded. The poor Hillary people at our caucus could not believe that there were 4 times as many people than the last caucus. Just my little precinct of 37 people had 30 for OBAMA and 7 old, old-timers for hillary. The new, old-timers (us and 3 other couples) for Obama, were all new to the process.

I hope that is WHAT is happening in Pennsylvania!

[nebula]

82. Stick a fork in her

she's done! Kaput, el Finito!

[quantass]

83. nice!

[easy_b94]

85. Kick