Managing Pennsylvania Expectations: A Tale of Four States

[Coexist]

Once upon a time in the Democratic Primary:

- Senator Clinton is up by 20% in New Hampshire for months – the standard narrative is that this will be a Clinton win. We should expect a big Clinton win here. Anything less than 15 points is really a loss.

- Surprising last minute poll shows Senator Obama is surpassing her as the race draws near – much press on this “shocking development” based on one poll.

- Senator Clinton wins by 3% - closing narrative – COMEBACK KID CLINTON IN STUNNING NEW HAMPSHIRE UPSET – THIS IS BIG NEWS, FOLKS! HAS OBAMA LOST HIS MOMENTUM?!”



- Senator Clinton is up by 30% in California for months – the standard narrative is that this will be a Clinton win. We should expect a big Clinton win here. Anything less than 15 points is really a loss.

- Surprising last minute poll shows Senator Obama is surpassing her as the race draws near – much press on this “shocking development” based on one poll.

- Senator Clinton wins by 9% - closing narrative – COMEBACK KID CLINTON IN STUNNING CALIFORNIA UPSET – THIS IS BIG NEWS, FOLKS! HAS OBAMA LOST HIS MOMENTUM?!”



- Senator Clinton is up by 30% in Texas for months – the standard narrative is that this will be a Clinton win. We should expect a big Clinton win here. Anything less than 15 points is really a loss.

- Surprising last minute poll shows Senator Obama is surpassing her as the race draws near – much press on this “shocking development” based on one poll.

- Senator Clinton wins by 4% - closing narrative – COMEBACK KID CLINTON IN STUNNING TEXAS UPSET – THIS IS BIG NEWS, FOLKS! HAS OBAMA LOST HIS MOMENTUM?!”



Meanwhile, back at the bowling alley:

- Senator Clinton is up by 30% in Pennsylvania for months – the standard narrative is that this will be a Clinton win. We should expect a big Clinton win here. Anything less than 15 points is really a loss.

- Surprising new poll shows Senator Obama closing in – within 4 points right now…

- I think you can figure out the rest.

[Yael]

1. 40% of California voted early -- even before SC

And JRE was still in the race then.

[Coexist]

2. yes, but Obama's closing those huge gaps should have been the story

but a stray poll or two comes out, showing that he is ahead, and the media changes the narrative from "wow, Obama really tightened this up" to "holy cow, Clinton pulled an upset."

Its not an upset when you lose a 30 point lead.

I just see PA going from a "Clinton MUST win by 15 points" to "wow, she won by 4 points, what an upset."

Do you see?

[Ned_Devine]

3. I've seen it all along

It's been the narrative that has driven me crazy this whole time. Who decides the narrative?

[Coexist]

4. the media. and I really don't think they take sides, I really think they just like

controversy and a horse race.

that's why I CRINGED when that damn CA Zogby poll came out - I knew that would become the focus - the "amazing development" even though it was obviously bunk.

[Ned_Devine]

5. let's hope the voters in PA change the narrative on their own...

...I'm from MA and was so disappointed to see HRC pick up my state

[Coexist]

8. it would be nice, but I won't count on it.

But they could literally change the world with their votes.

[Yael]

6. Oh -- I agree!

I think the outcome was astonishing given how many people cast a ballot weeks before the actual CA contest.

Meant to post in agreement -- sorry if it came out opposite. LOL!!

[Coexist]

7. not a problem - its hard to gauge intent

from the short blurbs we post!

[Coexist]

9. I'm kicking this because PPP (one of the WORST pollsters imho) has him up now.