SUSA PA Poll: Clinton 53 (-2), Obama 41 (+5)

[Yael]

Cross post from: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=108x128466

Link: http://www.nbc10.com/news/15759420/detail.html

[rox63]

1. Rasmusen has them even closer

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

[MadBadger]

2. This is what we call a trend.

[Coexist]

3. if he can get within 9, this race is over.

[rox63]

5. Check the Rasmussen link n/t

[Coexist]

14. I mean on election day

and SUSA is by far the more accurate pollster.

[goldcanyonaz]

8. Sure but what states are going to make up for OH, MI, FL, PA, MO?

He loses the south, so what other states does he pick up to get to the magic number come November?

Serious question, not trying to be snippy.

[Bok_Tukalo]

15. I disagree with you on Michigan ... not a done deal for Republicans

But I believe while close blue states like Pennsylvania and Michigan come into play so do close red states like Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado.

[democrattotheend]

26. Obama's actually doing better against McCain in Michigan

At least according to the latest poll. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

[Justitia]

16. FL & OH are repub states, we aren't getting them no matter what. PA is trending Dem, it's a lock

MI also trending Dem, we'll get them.

For the first time in awhile, we have an excellent shot at MO and Obama won that primary handily.

[goldcanyonaz]

17. Michigan is not trending Dem. It's a very weak state this GE. And OH and FL were within reach.

Obama barely won (10,000 votes) MO and now the polls show him losing the state. Hell, he's even tied with McCain in MA.

[Justitia]

23. Huh? MI went Dem the last FOUR elections. FL & OH within reach??? Delusional.

FL & OH haven't gone Dem in 12 yrs, and in the last FORTY yrs, FL has only gone Dem TWICE.

OH is more republican than my home state of TEXAS as WE have gone Dem four more times than them since almost the turn of the century.

When TX goes Dem, I'll look for OH to go Dem a few yrs later.


edit to add: if you think MA is going repub, you've become completely unmoored from reality.

[MadBadger]

24. OH is within reach, Florida however is not I'm afraid.

[Justitia]

25. How???? OH is more republican than TX! We've gone Dem more than OH. -eom

[MadBadger]

27. Ohio went blue in 1996, and in the last two cycles went to the Repukes by 2 and 3 %

So what the hell are you talking about?

[Justitia]

28. 12 yrs ago, but OK, I'll stay hopeful. I'd love to call OH a Dem state, but history says otherwise.

OH has only gone Dem 3 times in the last FORTY yrs.

But, I'm all for that changing one day, obviously.

[MadBadger]

29. The Economy is in the gutter in Ohio

Fucked up economy is good for dems, lol.

[Justitia]

30. True. Let's hope OH starts voting their economic interest. Go Blue OH! -eom

[Jersey Devil]

20. PA: McCain 44% Obama 43%, McCain 46% Clinton 44% - Rasmussen

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election

Either of them could win PA. Polls this early about the general election mean nothing, especially when no one is able to pound MCain because they are fighting each other.

Hell, Rasmussen has McCain winning NJ too. Do you really think he is going to win NJ in the general?

[BumRushDaShow]

21. PA voted for Kerry over Bush in the 2004 GE.

PA will vote for the Dem nominee.

[gabeana]

22. are you suggesting Hillary would win those states?

Just asking and if so what is your proof

[Sick_of_Rethuggery]

32. STOP. THE. MADNESS.

1. These are (kind of) relevant polls because of the proximity of the election (primary in PA).

2. General election polls are not relevant this far out, before the candidates have campaigned against each other.

3. Note how relevant national polls from last year were for the Democratic primaries.

4. There is not much correlation b/w winning states in a primary and the general elections. Witness: Bush won NY in the 2000 primaries.

[goldcanyonaz]

4. I'll take SUSA over Rasmussen any day of the week. Their polls have ended up being right.

[jefferson_dem]

9. Ok then. I'll take the seven-point swing in SUSA over the five-point swing in Ras.

Either way, the trend is tasty for Obama.

[cali]

12. Me too.

They've got a much better record this year, though it's not quite spot on. In any case, this is good news for Obama. He's just starting his campaigning there and he's 12 pts back with 3 weeks to go. Unless she wins it by at least 15, she won't even get a media boost out of it.

[dancingme]

6. Hello Morning Joe and Buchanan

Hillary is NOT going to win big in PA.

[UALRBSofL]

7. And, of the new registered voters

The majority of them, apporximately 80,000 were republican voters who changed to democratic voters. Now, what does this mean, I don't know. But, it could mean these voters will vote for a dem in november because of the Bush screw-ups or it could mean they crossed over to throw the primary. Take your pick because I sure don't know why they crossed over. I saw these statistics this morning on Morning Joe.

[goldcanyonaz]

11. Can't bother with facts at this point in the game. Them Obama Repugs are the good guys.

:rofl:

[slinkerwink]

10. So a 7 point swing since the last poll. Reflects trend of Obama closing the gap in PA

[Renew Deal]

13. I feel like I've seen this show before.

:D

[Jersey Devil]

18. self deleted

x

[Buzz Clik]

19. I think we'll find that PA will trend very much like Texas...

The polls will tighten as we get close to the primary, but Clinton will still win the popular vote by 7 to 10 points. It will not be the prohibitive win she needs.

As with Texas, the important points to remember will be that Hillary had monster leads even just one month prior to the primary, and that she needs a big (15+ points) to make the progress she so desperately needs.

[thewiseguy]

33. FYI

Hillary did not win Texas. Her margin of victory in the primary there was 3 points.

And also Hillary had momentum going into the March 4th primaries. Polls suggested that when we were very close to the primaries in Texas and Ohio. The trend was favouring her there as she started to pull away from him.

And what I learnt from Texas was that you can not apply the case of one state to the other. I thought Texas could be like California but I was wrong.

Polls do mean alot 24-48 hours before the election. That is when polls matter. And I said polls which means the collective average of them all.

[Buzz Clik]

34. I'm not sure we're disagreeing....

Here are the polling trends for Texas right up to the primary:



As you suggest, the polls just prior to the voting were pretty good at predicting the outcome -- Hillary winning the popular vote by a few points.

The polls had over-predicted Obama's gains near March 1, but the later polls provided a clearer picture that was more in agreement with the voting.

Perhaps California and Ohio might be better comparisons for the trend I'm suggesting for Pennsylvania:



Obama will close the very large gap to the point that the needed landslide will not emerge, but he will still lose the popular vote by about 7 to 10 points.

[thewiseguy]

37. Thanks for the graphs

In terms of demographics, Pennsylvania is a very good state for her. However, I would not compare one state to the other.

Obama might very well come back to tie her or take the lead in a few polls and her numbers might rebound. What happens after that? Who knows. 3 weeks is an awful long time.

Something that we did not have in other states.

[ORDem]

31. K&R n/t

:kick:

[anonymous171]

35. YEARGH!

GOBAMA! :woohoo::applause:

[Scurrilous]

36. K & R

:thumbsup:

[mckeown1128]

38. kick. nt

[meow mix]

39. K&R

nice