How well do you think Obama will do in PA ?

[kentuck]

With the last polls, he was behind by double digits. Do you think his "big buy" of commercials and his 6-day road trip will help him? (Perhaps he should play that old trucker song, Six Days On The Road?) Or do you think Hillary will maintain her big lead and cut into Obama's popular vote? Or will Obama pull an upset and win PA? Would that be the end of the Clinton campaign if she were to lose PA? What do you think?? :-)

[GarbagemanLB]

1. First off, she has to win PA to stay in, period. I think it will be close, like Texas, and I think O

bama has a legit chance at pulling an upset by an extremely slim majority with the help of Casey and the major population centers (especially Philadelphia). This could also be a case where the winner of the delegates is different from the winner of the popular vote.

[Cosmocat]

58. Yes and no ...

I live in Pa, central Pa, and my guess is that ...

1) the delegates are weighted more heavily in areas that most favor Obama, as in other states ... So, I do think he COULD win the delegate count ...

2) I am somewhat active in politics in my area, and I can tell you that the cliche of Hill being the "establishment" candidate and Obama being the upstart is spot on, at least in my area ... The older, career pols and people who have been long time activists are mostly Hill, the newcomers are mostly Obama ... Given that Pa is an older state, I think Hill manages to win, but as some have noted, Obama has a VERY clear trend where if he has the chance to campaign longer and actively in a state, he makes gains ... I just don't have the sense that he will win, but I do think he CAN get it into the 5-6-7% split range ...

[Life Long Dem]

65. 3 weeks to go.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5342621

[cali]

2. I think he'll lose it by 10 to 15

Closer to the 10 number. Alas.

[MercutioATC]

Clinton will win by about 10 points.

She needs 20 points, though, so it'll be a strategic win for Obama.

[BlooInBloo]

3. Obama loses by 9 percentage points is my guess. No idea about the delegates.

[Mooney]

4. It's too soon to tell.

I like the way the numbers are trending right now, but there's still 3 weeks to go and it's impossible to tell what's going to happen between now and then that might impact the race. Sniper-gate will surely have blown over by then (if it hasn't already) and it's possible that's the main reason HRC's not polling well right now. If that's the only reason, then it would be premature to make a judgment right now.

[TexasLady]

6. what matters Im afraid is the tiny timeline just before voting there

if either have any scandal on the MSM, and they WILL be looking for one, it could likely affect the outcome

[kennetha]

5. Clinton will win in a blow-out

15 - 20 pts. Obama will have his worst day of the campaign season. Questions about his viability in the general will rage. The talk will be of his need to consider dropping out and ending his historic campaign for the good of the party.

Obama supporters will finally get their well-deserved comeuppance as the magic fades.

[cali]

13. more hillbot math

She's had very,very few blowouts in this primary season. There is no reason to think she'll do better in PA than she did in OH. It's not NY or or Arkansas. And he's not even behind like that in the SUSA polls. She's further behind in NC than he is in PA. She'll win there but not by more than 15 and that doesn't purchase her much of anything. Tough on the hillbots, I know, but that's the way it looks.

YOU thought Wright would be his demise. bzzzt. PA won't be either.

[kennetha]

14. We'll see

The Survey USA Poll has Obama pulling closer because he's closed the gap with men. He's tanking among Women. If Hillary can drive down his negatives with White men and keep up her support among Women, he's done. If he loses by 15 or more points in a swing state like Penn, the whole basis of his campaign is undercut. It shows him up for what he really is. Paul Tsongas, Gary Hart, Howard Dean with the added advantage of carrying the black vote by dint of identity politics.

None of those guys became the Democratic nominee. And Barack won't become the nominee either. He's been artificially carried along by overwhelming black support. But from here on out that won't be much of a factor except in NC. These last primaries are going to show up his real weaknesses. And once FL and MI get seated, it's game over for OBama.

[cali]

21. Yes indeed. there are just so many AA voters here in VT

why nearly 1% of the electorate is AA. There are so many AA voters in CO, ID, ME, MN and in the other very white states he's won. What a crock.

Oh, and hiillypoo is the real identity politics player and truly the Tsongas candidate. She's dull, unlikable, cliche ridden and has no charisma whatsoever. She has the Clinton name and a lot of drive. It's not nearly enough.

[kennetha]

46. Sure

Obama can win the latte liberal votes that are always there for a Hart or a Brown or a Dean or a Tsongas. And he can win overhelmingly among AA's no doubt about it. And having both those constituencies makes him more formidable than his white new politics predecessors. But he's still a limited candidate. And these next primaries will help lay bare his limits.

[cali]

48. The "latte liberal" votes. Only people with no familiarity

with VT say something that dumb. Let me tell you about where I live: It's a remote part of the state that's poor. Most people are loggers, farmers or work at the mill. There are very,very few latte liberals here. The closest thing to latte you'll find in the Kingdom are those machines in convenience stores that spit out fake cappucinos. And are you really trying to convince yourself that states like Idaho are full of latte liberals? Maine? You need to get out more.

The primary season is almost over and he's shown that he's a LESS limited candidate than dear hilly, despite the advantages she started out with. And she only has a chance in three out of the upcoming 8 states. She's shown that she can't run a campaign to save her life. She a lousy limited candidate and the SDs know it.

[kennetha]

50. I lived in Vermont for 2 years actually

So I'm pretty familiar with a lot of it.

[cali]

51. Then you know what the Kingdom is and you know

that what I said about this area is true. In other words, you know better than to falsely be portraying VT as the land of latte liberals. That's an obnoxious repuke meme coined by the rethugs that opposed Dean.

[The Ghost]

69. Soooo.....

So then I guess Hillary is doing well where shes doing well due to overwhelming WHITE support? Will you say that as well then?

[flyarm]

7. Hillary +15-20 in Pa..as Rezko trial resumes..eom

[anonymous171]

8. That started already? I never hear about it.

[Adelante]

43. Now I know you're getting scared

:scared: and next thing we hear is "Rezko"

[flyarm]

60. i am not scared of anything..i don't like either candidate..

but more than not liking either i hate all the damn lies! on both sides!

[Hawkeye-X]

54. hey fly - Rezko trial has produced absolutely nothing against Obama.

and it's been going on for two weeks.

:boring:

Hawkeye-X

[flyarm]

59. ahh no they have been on a two week easter break!! just started again yesterday ..

i guess you didn't know that did you??

two week Hiatus..for Easter holiday.

http://tomwatson.typepad.com/tom_watson/2008/03/the-two-state-h.html

[Hawkeye-X]

71. !

[book_worm]

9. Hillary will win PA, but if Obama is under ten points he can claim a moral victory

because he was at one time according to some polls more than 20-points down. It also depends on how many delegates each camp gets. If Obama makes it very close like within five points then the spin will be that Hillary is running out of steam. However, if Hill wins by twelve to fifteen or more points she has a very large win which will hurt Obama in perception, if not necessarily delegate total.

[Lucky 13]

10. I actually believe he will pull an upset.

Conditions are right for it. A lot can change in 20 some odd days.

[grantcart]

11. Penssylvania Polls tighten dramatically Rasmussen Clinton 47 Obama 42

I think he is going to win it. And I did not think so until today.

Hillary's message is all on the defensive now - I will not quit - this is a very negative force for her to fight and it is impossible to turn around.


Here are the Rasmussen details


http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ele...


Survey USA Obama up 5 Clinton down 2 in Pennsylvania

http://www.nbc10.com/news/15759420/detail.html

If the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania were held Tuesday, April 1, Hillary Clinton would defeat Barack Obama by 12 percentage points, according to a recent SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for NBC 10 and three other Pennsylvania TV stations across the state.

However, the poll showed Obama gaining ground in the Keystone State, particularly in cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and among older voters, men and conservative Democrats.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, Clinton is down two points and Obama is up five, with Clinton's previous 19-point lead cut to 12, the survey found.

[stratomagi]

41. Like I've said

Once he actually gets here and voters get to see what he's about the numbers will get tighter.

[hogwyld]

74. As much as I love your work here

And HOPE that it could happen, I just don't think he could sniff a win in PA. Besides, I just know the Hillary camp-pain will throw some dirty bomb that will not be able to be refuted in time before the vote.

[phrigndumass]

12. Rasmussen's poll yesterday has Clinton at only +5 in PA

But I expect that won't last, it's just a dip ...

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

:hi:

[Demeter]

15. Better Than Expected

People don't like to vote for unhinged candidates on our side of the aisle.

[flor de jasmim]

16. Do extra large numbers of people vote absentee in PA?

If so, this may be a case like CA.

[Yael]

73. No. We don't have early voting and you pretty much have to have an act of Congress

to get an absentee ballot here. "I was working in another state all day" doesn't get it.

Its bizarre.

[Avalux]

17. It will be very close and Obama might pull out a slight win.

I'm not saying this just because I'm an Obama supporter. I'm from Central PA and I've got a lot of family back there; a lot of them who have never voted for a Democrat before but will vote for Obama. The general feedback I'm getting is that Obama is catching on in the rural small town areas most have written off. It'll just be a matter of if he has enough time to make up the deficit.

[kennetha]

18. Right

This is the same kind of stuff we were hearing from Obama folks in Ohio.

My gut tells me this is going to be a blow-out folks. Obama is going to be reeling after this one.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

23. Right.

This is the same kind of stuff we were hearing from Clinton folks in Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, South Carolina, Super Tuesday, Wisconsin...

[kentuck]

19. I heard this morning there were 250,000 new registered voters?

Who would that favor? Could they make a difference in the election? Will they favor Hillary or Obama? Or McCain?? That's a lot of voters!

[not_too_L8]

20. Latest PA poll

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary
Pennsylvania: Clinton 47% Obama 42%

only 5%

[democrattotheend]

25. SurveyUSA has him down 12 today

But that's still an improvement from their last poll, which had him down 19. SurveyUSA has been the most reliable, so I am going to guess that he'd lose by 10-12 points if the election were held today.

[shadowknows69]

22. I think he's going to be closer than anyone thinks

If not win it. He's picking up a momentum again.

[harun]

24. Obama will win PA, he has plenty of time to rally the supporters

In each primary the more people get to see of him the better.

[zulchzulu]

26. Obama will win by 2-3%

I'll wager anyone...

[MadBadger]

27. Obama 50.5, Hillary 49.5.

[dchill]

44. Sounds about right to me...

He's up 5 from the last Rasmussen and up 7 from the last SUSA, so it's looking good. I kinda think he ought to take her up on the bowling-for-delegates challenge, though. I'm sure he's a quick study in matters athletic. ;)

[slinkerwink]

28. I think he'll come within single digits, but she still wins PA

[Just-plain-Kathy]

29. I predict Obama will honestly win, and Hillary will dishonetly be crowned winner.

I think corporate America will hand the White House to Hillary like they did for Junior.

Yesterday my local news was floating Condi Rice's name for McCain's VP. It seems odd that the GOP would run with such warhawks when the country wants out.

I think we as a nation should loudly back Obama. The world has to know that we no longer want greedy corporations in charge of OUR country!

Ms NAFTA, -the woman who knews about PNAC and their plan for world domination through aggression, -yet gave them power to go to war with a nation that did nothing to us...

Should NEVER be our President!

[tishaLA]

30. He'll lose by ~8

[Willo]

31. I think he will do very well. Well enough in fact Hillary will have

to move the goalpost again. The post is already being moved from 20 to 15 with whispers of double digits.

Losing by only 9 or 10 is doable and speaks volumes.

I really believe he could win PA but I don't trust the process enough.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

32. Clinton wins by 9 and a confetti truck is backed up to some auditorium.

Bank on it (the confetti part).

[kentuck]

33. You mean like in Ohio ?

:-) Well, it gives the impression of a victor.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

35. Yes.

The world would be deforested if Obama had dropped confetti at every win! :rofl:

[kentuck]

36. That's an excellent line !

"The world would be deforested if Obama had dropped confetti at every win!"

[Pisces]

52. He will win by 2

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

57. Good. Then it will be over. nt

[Teaser]

34. lose by 11

.

an ambiguous enough result that both sides will spin it

[NJSecularist]

37. Hillary will win Pennsylvania by 9 n/t

[LiveLiberally]

38. The last polls before the primary should tell us....

but only if you handicap them properly to reflect the fact that the majority of the last minute deciders -- like in Ohio -- are likely to break for Clinton. Thus if in the final polling days

Clinton is up by 10-12 points = relative Clinton blow-out of 15-18
Clinton is up by 5-7 points = Clinton takes PA by 10
Polls are tied within the margin of error either way = Clinton wins by 4-6
Obama is up by 4-6 points = nail biter finish

[RichardRay]

39. Lose but...

Probably by < 15%.
Could be by < 10%, if so, brag.
If < 5% claim a victory.
If he can eke out any kind of win the he's the presumptive nominee.

[meow mix]

40. Hold on.. *sips koolaid"

Obama Will Win!!!
i have faith now.

[Adelante]

42. If he loses, it's by single digits

But I begin to sense he can win this one.

[Perky]

45. I think Hillary has a ceiling of support in PA

It is very dobtful that she is going to find a new veirn of support. Obama's Ceiling is much higher. So in large measure it depends on how he does with blue collar white males. Bosnia helps....Bowling probably doesn't (haha) Seems like no one wants to touch NAFTA again.

If he gets 45% of white males under $50k I think he wins on the basis of AA support and Philly suburbs where he is going to do very well.

Too early for tea leaves but if it closes any more than five points I think he is going to win.

[TTUBatfan2008]

47. He'll lose by 10...

but that's not too bad.

[Khaotic]

49. Obama will get at least 60+ delegates

on his way to the 50%+1 mark of 1625.

I've stated it before, I'll state it again. When Obama reaches the 50%+1 mark in pledged delegates he wins. The supers will rush to him like water obeying the rules of gravity.

It will come to pass.

Plain, simple, that will be that.

My guess is that Obama will reach and surpass 50%+1 w/ the May 20th vote.

After that it will be painfully obvious to Hillary.

She will concede, just as Dodd, Biden, Richardson, and Edwards did.

Wait and see.

Barring some unforeseen event giving her wins in N.C. and Oregon, she will concede May 21.

Mark my word.

[Tatiana]

53. I think he will close the gap to within 5-6 points. n/t

[stevietheman]

55. Obama will win by losing by 2-5%

Hillary has to win by at least 10% to be able to make a sellable argument for staying in the race.

[Khaotic]

56. Operation Chaos

We may want to discount pigboy, but facts are facts.

In Mississippi we know from the exit polls that a large group of voters who switched from Republican to vote Democrat, voted for Hillary.

Of those same voters who voted for Hillary, a large number of them turned around and expressed negative viewpoints about her in regard to voting for her in the general election.

There's every indication that pigboy's Operation Chaos had an impact in Mississippi and could have had an impact as far back as Ohio.

It's not something he admits, it's something he brags about. Listen to his comedy show and you'll know.

Hillary supporters in Penn. are bragging about the HUGE amount of newly registered Dems there are for this primary. They're bragging about how many Republicans are switching to Democrat ... in HUGE numbers. Basically their coaching ahead of time why they're going to get such a huge amount of votes from "former" Rethuglicans.

This isn't what happened in Iowa, or the other states which had primaries or caucuses while the Republican nominee was still in the air in some way shape or form.

Now the Rethuglicans know their nominee, and they want to pick the person they want their nominee to run against.

The Rethug-bots listen to pigboy religiously. They think this whole thing is a real hoot and are laughing their asses off.

They have real hard numbers telling them beyond a shadow of a doubt that they impacted Hillary's vote in Mississippi.

It wasn't enough to give her the win, but it underscorced how effective the Operation Chaos movement can be. It gave it creditability and gave the GOP operatives looking to effect and select the Democratic nominee confidence.

We know how much ethics mean to those who call themselves Republicans ... zero.

It doesn't matter that what pigboy is doing is essentially electioneering. He doesn't care, he only knows that he wants to face Hillary. It's a GOP wet dream come true.

Look at the maps at http://www.electoral-vote.com/

You'll see Obama "losing" to McSame and Clinton losing to McSame as well (it's only April, the fringe numbers can and will change).

But don't just look at the total EVs, look at the maps. Look hard at what states are in play under an Obama v. McSame. Also, look at how many GOP EVs are within reach for Obama, compared to how many GOP EVs are within reach for Clinton.

The dark red states will more than likely remain dark red, but the barely GOP states could be within Obama's reach. Some of those states are true shockers and are in no way shape or form within reach if Hillary were the nominee.

You can bet that the GOP wants to continue to work with the same maps and demographics they've been working with in the last four elections.

You can say that there's NO WAY Texas is up for grabs. But Jim Hightower will tell you different. He knows the likes of Obama can turn Texas back to blue.

This is the equivalent of California going red. ANY, and I mean ANY, chance of that happening is a nightmare the GOP wants to escape from before they're in it.

Pigboy's Operation Chaos is all about that. They want Hillary to be the nominee, or at least keep the Democratic Party in upheaval as long as possible.

Even with Operation Chaos, Obama WILL walk away with 60+ delegates. The concern will be the hard exit poll numbers exposing whatever level of success Operation Chaos has in giving Hillary the win. This will embolden the GOP further and push them to do the same in greater numbers in the remaining states.

I don't think pigboy's menions have the numbers to keep Obama from reaching 50%+1 with the May 20 vote though.

Come May 21st, we'll have a concession from Hillary and we'll have our nominee.



GOBAMA!!!!

[GoesTo11]

61. Obama is only at 37 and out of his league

in bowling PleasantValleyRecreationCenter

[thoughtcrime1984]

67. Hillary will roll a 46 and win by 9.

Not. Nearly. Enough.

[Vinca]

62. I think there's a small chance he could pull a win out of this.

If he does and then takes North Carolina, maybe, just maybe, "Rocky" will rethink the scorched earth policy.

[easy_b94]

63. I say he will win by 2-3 points.

[Barack_America]

64. Well enough to declare himself Pennsylvania's "comeback kid"!

:woohoo:

GOBAMA!

[Bigleaf]

66. Sorry Hillary. There's a new sheriff in town. This is my State.

[Alter Ego]

68. Let me preface with this: I do not think he'll win.

Demographics favor Hillary. However, the sheer effort of his grassroots campaign will shrink the margin to within 5-10 points.

[Uben]

70. A death blow to Obama's campaign

Clinton in a blow-out 200% to -100%, and Clinton picks up 432 pledged delegates, 212 super delegates, and a partridge in a pear tree!

How the hell do I know? It's a guess. I could be a tad off.

[k8conant]

75. Poisson d'avril !!!

April Fool

[MrSlayer]

72. If he loses it won't be by much.

So I'd say he will have done very well.

[mdmc]

76. I think he will do pretty good

about what he did in NY:kick:

[izzybeans]

77. I think it will be a single digit loss or a slim upset.