If Obama is not electable, why is he winning??? Where's the mistake??

[cliffordu]

:popcorn:

[OmahaBlueDog]

1. The primary process does not necessarily yield an electable candidate

Prime example: Bob Dole - 1996.

[anonymous171]

2. Could anyone beat Bill Clinton is his prime?

Maybe Ronald Reagan (on the GOP side.)

[Spider Jerusalem]

8. Sure. Bill Clinton never broke 50% nationally.

And probably would have lost in '92 if not for Perot. (Possibly in '96, also.)

[karynnj]

15. I assume that there were many who could have in 1992

Most of the strongest candidates stayed out because GHWB was strong in 1991 - before he went into freefall. I know many here will say no, I think that if Clinton did not run in 1992, and some other Democrat was in for those 8 years - and some how we still ended up with Bush - Clinton, Governor of Arkansas would never have beat Kerry or Dean in 2004. His issues with not telling the truth and especially his letter saying "some loathed the military" would have doomed him before 2003 was out.

[roseBudd]

6. Prime example: Bob Dole - 1996. You are kidding right? Comparing old boring Dole to Obama?

[OmahaBlueDog]

35. My point was that parties nominate candidates who don't give the best odds of winning

In 1996, had the Republicans nominated Lamar Alexander, he would have had a shot at unseating Bill Clinton; Clinton has admitted as much. The Republicans chose the old-guy who appealed to the party but not the electorate at large.

Obama is exciting TO US (us being Democrats). I don't know that Joe Bagodonutz in Peoria, who isn't to partisan and could go either way, is too excited about voting for Barack Obama. He's a young, African-American guy with a funny sounding name, and he's running against John McCain, who he's seen on TV for about a million years now and is a war hero. Don't get me wrong: Mr. Bagodonutz ain't too excited about Hillary Clinton either.

Whoever is our nominee, we pin our hopes as follows: we hope that Joe Bagodonutz, Jr., who is off at college, and a whole lot of his friends register, and then follow through and vote. It would be especially helpful if he went to school in Ohio or Florida (scratch that -- Florida is a lost cause), and it would be helpful if the votes were counted honestly. Then we hope that a lot of Mr. Bagodonutz' friends, who know everything they know about politics from Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, decide they don't get all tingly about McCain like they do about Tom Tancredo or Fred Thompson -- and stay the Hell home!

[TahitiNut]

16. Your dedication to self-governance in a democratic society is heartwarming.

:puke:

[OmahaBlueDog]

32. We're not a democracy; we're a republic

If you don't believe me -- look it up. That's why we don't vote for candidates; the reality is we vote for delegates, electors, etc. I didn't write the rules.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OmahaBlueDog]

39. I hope you talk just like that when you go door to door for your candidate

It's so pleasant.. you must be awfully popular.

[bhikkhu]

41. SHHHHHH....nobody is supposed to talk about that.

Makes people mad who have been raised on spreading Democracy and so forth.

[anigbrowl]

31. By definition, 50% of primary winners go on to lose in the GE.

Think about it.

[OmahaBlueDog]

33. True, but some are just not competitve

We picked Stevenson (twice); he had no chance against Ike. He was the smarter, better candidate, but he wasn't going to beat a popular war hero.

Dewey was a helluva pick by the GOP, and had he not committed the biggest blunder in modern political history by completely underestimating Truman and ceasing to campaign, would have won.

There are nominees and there are nominees

[Pernambuco]

34. Agree.. Kerry sweeped the floor with Dean, and lost to Bush

Some people have trouble differentiating GE electability and primary elect ability.

[stratomagi]

43. Yeah you know roughly half of all presidential nominees

don't get elected. The prime reason for them losing is the other candidate. Great uhh logic there Omaha.

[baldguy]

3. And what does it say about the candidate who has lost to him?

[roseBudd]

4. Good god we finally have a likeable candidate drawing crowds in the thousands

these people are waiting in line for hours to see Obama and the I'm a bigger longer more wise democrats than you are saying this is insignificant.

Wake up. He is our JFK. And McCain is going to look like old dour Nixon

[ProSense]

5. Visine

gets the red out

Too bad it doesn't work on rose-colored glasses.

[dsc]

7. dukakis

enough said.

[paulk]

9. you do know that there's a difference between the primaries

and the general election?

YOu know - where the other party has a candidate?

[cliffordu]

17. Yep, I know.

Why do the very people who cannot defeat him now, keep saying he cannot win???

[paulk]

40. Repubicans are running against him in our primaries?

Guess I missed it.

[candice]

10. Caucuses represent 2% of the vote; Deep South states usually go Republican...

...the Democratic Party in most Southern States is predominately AA and liberal whites, but the majority of the voters in these states are registered Republicans.

Look for strong showings in states with a majority of Democratic voters.

[kevinmc]

11. Ask Gore or Kerry, they might have the answer you seek .. n/t

[berni_mccoy]

12. Bad examples. Gore won. Kerry would have won if he challenged Ohio.

[karynnj]

18. I think they could each have beat Clinton in the primary in 1992

If Clinton were never President - he would have had no chance against Kerry in 2004. His "loathing the military" letter alone would do it. he would have had no foreign policy experience - and Kerry is far more eloquent.

Clinton's Bush was at below 40% for months and was at 33 in Nov 1992, W was at around 50%. Clinton's campaign was not as airbrushed of screwups as it was in the "War Room". It had some of the same flaws this Clinton campaign has had.

[DearAbby]

13. According to the Clinton Campaign

The DNC is counting states that really dont count. Therefore Obama is winning illegally. If you dont believe me, ask me. The only states that count are states in HillaryLand.

[jbm]

14. the mistake is that you're dealing with a small percentage of the voters right now...

I can give you a good example of what will happen. He barely won the Missouri primary, but he did because he carried the area around Kansas City, St Louis, and Columbia. He did not do very well in any county in the rest of the state. No Democratic candidate has ever won Missouri without picking up at least a good percentage of the votes outside the cities. Obama will not pick up those needed votes.

I have been a very active, very dedicated Democrat for many years, and I have never seen the kind of imploding our local party is experiencing right now.

Normally by this point in an election, we would be planning some major fundraisers,looking for a building to rent for the headquarters, and organizing the phone banks for the voter database. Instead of enthusiasm and passion, the local party has dissolved into a mass of indifference and squabbling.

We had tentative plans for a fundraiser, but last week we decided to cancel it. People have to really care to voluntarily submit themselves to the kind of emotional and financial investment that goes into running campaigns in small rural counties, because all of the weight for everything falls onto a few people. The candidates need these counties to win though, and it's not going to happen for Obama.

Originally this was Edwards country, and when that failed people shifted to Hillary, but they are totally dismayed at the idea of an Obama candidacy. I'm sure it's a racist thing for some, but in most instances it's an issue of experience, coupled with the idea that Hillary has paid her dues and earned the right to run.

Even if they come around in time to vote for him, it will be to late to lay the groundwork necessary to line up a significant chunk of voters. When Claire McCaskill ran for Governor, she lost the rural counties and lost the race. When she ran for Senator, we started working for her a year before the election, and the rural counties gave her the win. It is amazing to me that she so easily forgot what it takes for a Democrat to win in Missouri. Or maybe she assumed we would just naturally fall into line and our wishes were irrelevant.

[Aussie leftie]

20. You explained it very well.

In the general election, Obama (if he is the candidate) will not only be looking for Democrat votes, he has also got to win Republican votes. At the moment he is only preaching to the converted.

[Liberal Gramma]

22. I disagree

How many anecdotal accounts have we had here on DU about their Republican relative/friend/co-worker/neighbor voting Obama? I have one in my own family. I think he can draw beyond traditional Democratic boundaries.

[jbm]

38. I'm sure he will pick up some repubs..

but he won't gain enough of them to offset the impact of totally demoralized Democratic central committees. Most of us were never Obama supporters, but when we realized the local party lacked the enthusiasm to run an effective election this year, a few people made attempts to save us. I assumed the black community had an increased level of enthusiasm, so I contacted some of the community leaders and asked for their help in organizing needed fundraisers so that we could at least open the headquarters. I got lots of promises but even after several attempts I never got a single commitment.

Finally last friday I decided that if no one else cared, I didn't either, and it appears that will be the end of it. Not having a headquarters means we have no phone banks for updating the database or doing get out the vote. It means we have no place for people to pick up signs or make arrangements to get rides to the polls. For years we've increased democratic voter turnout by having a huge feast at the headquarters on election day, and the price of admission was an "I voted" sticker. It's going to take a LOT of republican stragglers to offset the loss of even one rural democratic campaign headquarters, and my guess is we're not the only county to give up this year.

[PA Voter]

46. Same Republicans will vote against him in Nov.

I know some in my family.

[jbm]

28. thanks!..n/t

:hi:

[Awsi Dooger]

42. Excellent summary; Obama's Missouri victory was by far the most over hyped and misleading result

of the campaign. I posted that immediately on MyDD and elsewhere. I believe I mentioned it here within the past few weeks.

I watched that race closely all night, via excellent county by county breakdown from John King on CNN, plus on the internet. All Obama managed was to rescue the state via huge urban net in the late counted areas, the traditional Democratic base. Meanwhile, every smaller county went for Hillary. Now, translate that to November and he gets routinely dismissed. Sure he'll dominate Kansas City and St. Louis beyond what Hillary would manage, but with trampled fortunes in the vast majority of the state he's already a loser before the big guns report. Missouri is uphill regardless, but Obama makes it less manageable than Hillary. I was an Edwards supporter, same as in '04, because I knew he would fare best in states like yours.

It's bizarre to see some applicable analysis on DU for a change. This is what kept me here in '02, after I stumbled upon the site. Now it's primarily a hoop and holler arena, and quite hilarious that posters seem to think that stumbling upon the primary winner means they made the correct choice in terms of November, or the most successful presidency.

[loyalsister]

44. Isn't it a little early to get too worried?

Obama won my largely rural county= Boone. Columbia is much has surrounding area that is more rural that you might think.

The local Dems are just now beginning their primary campaigns. August is primary month. The november election barely matters in this state until those are over.

The reason Claire McCaskills endorsed Obama is simple. She ran against a man who was young enough to be her son in a statewide race and lost. She knew that the politics of perception and that the dynamics between herself and Matt Blunt created a situation where she looked mean and people disliked her. She knows how that match-up will work with McCaine and Obama.

[JayFredMuggs]

19. This is a good question!

I hope you get some logical answers.

I think Hillary supporters are very afraid at this time.

They need assurances that Hillary will be a famous woman, and they cannot consider anyone other than her, in a rational way.

[BzaDem]

21. If McGovern wasn't electable, why did he win the primary?

The general electorate has 100+ million people. The primary electorate has about 1/3 of that.

[OmahaBlueDog]

37. White middle Class backlash against The Great Society

White middle Class backlash against the hippies
White middle Class backlash against bussing

To Democrats, who wanted to expand on The Great Society, bring racial equality, and end the war -- McGovern was ideal. Also, Teddy Kennedy couldn't run at that point because of Chappy.

Nixon was perceived as a defender of white middle class values to the greater electorate. Also, he ran a bad campaign, and didn't do a good job selling his own record. His veep fiasco was also a hinderance.

[QC]

23. Ask Walter Mondale. n/t

[C_U_L8R]

24. You have to think like a Clinton

"no one is electable except for meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"

[PseudoIntellect]

25. He's not electable because all that matters is the electoral votes in PA, OH, NY, and CA.

And she is winning 100% of those nonexistent electoral votes thus far. The other 46 states don't count. Oh, and ignore the polls that show him actually out-doing Clinton against McCain in NY in CA.:sarcasm:

[JayFredMuggs]

26. New York, and California, will NOT vote for McSame

Please, don't insult us with your faulty logic.

Ohio and Penn, Hillary cannot and WILL not guarantee us a victory there, either, you are too smart to fall for this sillyness.

[PseudoIntellect]

27. I posted the sarcasm tag in the previous post just in case, but apparently, that didn't work.

:shrug:

[LisaL]

29. It's rather obvious that winning the primary doesn't mean winning

the state in the GE.

[Cha]

30. Because hilary says so?! You're kidding!

hilary's a busted liar on the international stage. Obama will win against mccain..hilary is whining 'cause she's losing.

Just the opposite of what hilary says is true..just like bush.

[PA Voter]

45. If Obama is not electable, why is he winning???

Home field advantage.

[PA Voter]

47. 14 Key States in Question?

14 Key States in Question?
Any Dem will win strong DEM State and loose strong RNC state.
These 14 will decide the winner. Look at results from last 2 elections
(-VE number means Dems lost)

State Electoral Dems Won Dems Won
Vote by % in 2000 by % in 2004
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida 25 -0.01 -5.01
Pennsylvania 23 4.21 2.50
Ohio 21 -3.54 -2.11
Michigan 18 5.16 3.42
Tennessee 11 -3.89 -14.27
Missouri 11 -3.37 -7.20
Wisconsin 11 0.22 0.38
Minnesota 10 2.44 3.48
Colorado 8 -8.49 -4.67
Oregon 7 0.45 4.16
Iowa 7 0.32 -0.67
New Mexico 5 0.06 -0.79
Nevada 4 -3.62 -2.59
New Hampshire 4 -1.28 1.37