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Will Dean's tax plan kill him in the general election?

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ringmastery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:26 PM
Original message
Will Dean's tax plan kill him in the general election?
He wants to repeal ALL of the Bush tax cuts, including the middle class tax cuts. The other democratic candidates want to repeal only the tax cuts on the rich.

I can see many independent voters and centrists who may otherwise vote democrat vote for Bush and not Dean for this reason alone.
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curse10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:27 PM
Response to Original message
1. I think it might backfire
the average american loves tax cuts- it's like sugar- we all know it's bad for us but we eat it anyway.
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JaneQPublic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #1
51. Poll shows most people prefer health care for all over a tax cut
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leyton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #51
65. Yeah
If Howard Dean can make the case very well for the cut - tax cuts mean shifting tax burden to states and no health care - he'll be successful. The trick is to frame the debate so that everyone sees the issue as it's worded in the question, which is biased towards care for all.
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schultzee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
73. The increase in state taxes made the M.C. tax cuts null and void
and in some cases actually increased taxes. My state raised taxes and the reduction I got from Pig Bush did nothing.
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:40 PM
Response to Original message
2. This alone will destroy any chance that.....
Dr. Dean has of winning. Clinton back in 92' said that he would raise taxes on only the wealthiest in order to balance the budget. Dean is going to take money away from the working people and porr people, that's not going to make him very popular, esspecially in Michigan, a swing state! Add to that, he is going to take tax cuts away from the middle class, the largest voting block; Dean's strategy is political suicide.

By the way, I believe that we should keep the tax cuts for the working people. Here, I strongly disagree with Howard Dean!
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bearfartinthewoods Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #2
22. it's a dean deal killer for my brother in law
and a 'few' other people as well.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:40 PM
Response to Original message
3. He'll change it
He's got "reformed" tax policy mixed up in his smear of the Democratic candidates. He'll smear them on the Bush tax cuts as long as he can get away with it, then when he needs to he'll roll out his "tax reform" which will include the same goddamn tax cuts he's been bitching about all year. Mark my words.
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TLM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #3
18. Dean has been saying this for months...


That he wants to roll back ALL bush cuts and then put into place new and fair tax policy that will include REAL tax help for the working class and small businesses.

So why act like this is some sudden switch up?
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #18
26. He's been railing against the Bush tax cuts
Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 03:42 PM by sandnsea
He's been saying we can't afford them. He's been saying that they're just tax shifts. He's been saying Americans will trade tax cuts for health care. He's been saying all the candidates are evil for supporting them.

Yeah, I know he gave himself his little "tax reform" out. Like I said, he'll roll that out when he thinks he's gotten all the mileage he can get out of beating the hell out of the other candidates. And the "tax reform" will look EXACTLY like the tax proposals of every other Democratic candidate. The ones he's been calling Bush lite for having the exact same tax plans he has.
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #26
54. Welcome to the Dean
spin machine. (I mean his spinning, you are absolutely right)

What will Dean supporters say when this happens. I guess we know what TLM will say already.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:41 PM
Response to Original message
4. No, he'll be fine
Thanks for the concern!
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poopyjr Donating Member (251 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:42 PM
Response to Original message
5. Anyone who says "no" doesn't understand presidential politics
Dean is DOOMED because of his tax increase policy.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. DOOMED!
Nice sweeping generalization there. I guess we'll find out who understands presidential politics.
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ringmastery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Remember '84
when Mondale wanted to raise people's taxes.

People distrust government and want to keep their money. Even if it's just a few hundred dollars, it's a few hundred dollars they worked hard for...
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. Guess what!
It's not 1972. It's not 1984. It's not 1988. It's not 2000.


HTH!
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poopyjr Donating Member (251 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. lmao so Dean is going to magically reverse 30 years of trend?
LOL
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #15
24. Trend?
Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 03:36 PM by Hep
To pretend that all the democratic losses over the past thirty years can be summed up by ONE issue or one set of circumstances IS quite funny.
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poopyjr Donating Member (251 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. You're right, Dean's tax hikes will be hugely popular
during the general election. We are having a jobless economic recovery. People are out of work. Some are having to work at much lower paying jobs. OF COURSE they will vote to raise their taxes. MAKES PERFECT SENSE.

Dean landslide 2004!!!!!!!
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:27 PM
Response to Reply #25
35. His tax policy looks good
to a lot of people. Notice the swelling of support thus far. You may not have noticed, but we're already being attacked from this angle, BY DEMOCRATS. It hasn't exactly done us in.
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bearfartinthewoods Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
29. and people don't want to keep their hard earned money anymore
Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 03:57 PM by bearfartinthewoods
yeah.....right

we are soooo screwed..........


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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:27 PM
Response to Reply #29
36. What money?
I get no more now than I got before the tax cuts.
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poopyjr Donating Member (251 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #36
40. Well, I did.
I happen to like that I've gotten tax relief.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #40
55. Oh, I see
As long as you get yours screw the rest of the middle class. You're right. Maybe Dean isn't for you.
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quaker bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #29
41. Another shallow appeal to fear from a usual source
There is no point in winning if we must choose to run and then govern as republicans to do so. We may just as well let them have the place.

I see that you have capitulated to the right. So apparently either we toast the social contract or we charge it on our kids and grandkids credit cards.

While we are at charging things off to our kids, perhaps we can support the neo-con war and the draft that will ensue in 2005 because we are running out of volunteers and have so many more regimes to change.

The only way to avoid fear is to stand for nothing. Standing for nothing is the surest path to defeat in 2004.

You do have the repug mantra down:

"Fear us democrats, we are the big and powerful party, you are weak and small, don't speak up, stay in your place, fear us."
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jeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #5
48. Nonesense, Dean has always said that he wants tax reform...
He wants to reform the system since working-class people and middle-class people pay more in payroll taxes than they do in income taxes. To cut income taxes is to cut taxes for the rich. That is the argument he has made.

Why do some Democrats insist on making GOP talking points instead of telling the truth. I understand you want your candidate to win. But why do you insist on lying?

What Dean opposes is the idea that everytime the GOP talk about cutting middle-class taxes, they give them $100 billion (over ten years) and give the wealthy, corporations and big buisness another $900 billion.

You want a small tax cut for the poor or middle-class? Okay, but we'll eliminate the inheritance tax. You want another small middle-class tax cut? Okay we'll cut the tax on stock dividends. Etc.

That's what Dean wants to change by reforming the tax system all together. He is right. Why can't other Democrats stand up for something that is right.

I find it amusing that they never say "this is the wrong thing to do." They say, "Oh. We'll lose making this argument." What about standing up for principles once in a while. That's the problem with Washington Democrats they have no principles only pollsters.
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bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 09:52 AM
Response to Reply #48
52. How about the principle of progressive
Edited on Sat Jan-03-04 10:33 AM by kenzee13
taxation? How about making a dent in the ever-increasing wealth/income gap between the very rich and the rest of us? It is the tax breaks for the upper 1-5% that are bankrupting the country, most especially those that benefit the upper 1-2% and corporations. And not just "income" tax but tax breaks on "wealth".

Do I remember correctly that Dean proposes even rescinding the child tax credit? If so, what a gift to the Republicans. Many working people rely on that "lump sum," paltry as it is, to catch up on end of the year bills, car repairs, other essentials.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #52
56. You want to close the gap?
Make sure people have access to good education, to healthcare, and to job training and opportunities. That's Dean's plan.
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bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #56
59. Hep, take a look
at the graphs and figures at:
http://www.inequality.org/factsfr.html
and tell me we need to increase the current tax burden on lower and middle income wage earners? And if you are already familiar with them, tell me how you can justify taking ANY more income out of the hands of lower and middle earners?

I have commented on Dean's health plan enough, but regarding job training and opportunities, yes, I am all for them. But there is still a huge low-paid service economy and until wages are raised in that sector, we need income supports for low-wage earners. The child tax credit is an inadequate token in that direction, why would we repeal it?

I put these to you as genuine questions, not to be confrontational or abrasive.

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SW FL Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 09:35 PM
Response to Reply #48
68. Dean will increase payroll taxes
Payroll taxes are the same as Social Security and Medicare, the rest is just federal and state income tax withholding. Dean plans to increase the threshold for Social Security taxes. This will hit middle class families hard. It is even harder on self employed people who have to pay both the employee and employer portion of the Social Security tax.
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Killarney Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
8. This is my biggest concern with Dean.
I think it will hurt him.
But each candidate has something that will hurt him in the GE and I'm trying to weigh it all. I'm hoping Dean will modify his stance and at least let the Child Tax Credit stay, etc.

Even though, personally, I agree with him and think all the * tax cuts should be repealed, I know that the general public doesn't really understand how it works and some just vote for who will give them lower taxes without thinking through the consequences.

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ringmastery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. the thing is it's a stupid position
because it's not practical and in tune with political realities.

How in the hell will Dean get his plan passed with a Republican congress? Even if the democrats take both houses back, there are plenty of democrats in congress who will under no circumstances raise the taxes of middle class and poor working people.

It's dead on arrival.

A political loser in all respects.

How does Dean gain anything by having this policy?
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TexasPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #10
16. yup
unless he wins in a landslide with a mandate

i think there are some that believe that's whats going to happen.
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Pavlovs DiOgie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #10
20. "How in the hell will Dean get his plan passed with a Republican congress?
The same way he did in VT with a very liberal legislature, despite his conservative agenda.

"Dean's words foreshadowed years of acrimonious battles with his party's formidable liberal wing, which controlled the legislature. From 1991 to 2002, Dean issued more vetoes than any previous governor. But he slowly bent Democrats to his will. When he left office in 2002, Vermont had a fairly balanced budget, while states across the nation bled fiscal red ink.

http://www.washintonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A15326-2003Aug2?language=printer

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bearfartinthewoods Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #20
67. okay, i get it...he will slowly bend the dems to his will
untiol not a liberal is left standing..........
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bearfartinthewoods Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #10
62. that's the thing that makes me say 'what the fuck???"
to make this an issue when there isn't a chance in hell that it'll happen is a real jaw dropper.
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redqueen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
9. Well it won't help much
But I doubt I'd go so far as to say it will 'kill him'.
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
11. Nope. won't hurt him at all.
Here's why.

There's a poll out there somewhere that they would prefer national health care than tax cuts.. And more people support repealing the tax cut back to Clinton era tax base.

Why break something that isn't broken? That's exactly what Dubya did.

Hawkeye-X
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bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #11
53. Dean isn't even proposing
truely "national" or "universal" health care, nor is it something he can deliver simply because he is elected. He is proposing a confused muddle a la Clinton that will be easy to defeat because everyone will be afraid that THEY will lose under it...all to keep the Insurers and Pharmacuticals happy.
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AntiCoup2K4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:54 PM
Response to Original message
13. It's all spin
First of all, billionaires don't pay taxes. They dodge them with every imaginable loophole. So for Junior to give them a "refund" on something they never paid in the first place is criminally wrong.

Second, tax cuts for the middle class? Hmmm, I don't seem to recall getting one, and if I did, it was some neglible amount that didn't come close to balancing out the 400% increase in my healthcare coverage, or the near doubling in price of everyday stuff like gasoline and groceries over the last 3 horrible years. Or the utility costs, thanks to Ken Lay and his asshole friends raping the west coast power grid. Tax cuts my ass.

The entire tax system needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. And not by the current Fraudministration either. First thing to go is the loopholes. Make the greedy fucks pay their fair share.
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:58 PM
Response to Original message
14. It will be one of Rove's easiest and most repeated ads
If Dean gets the nod, you can bet Bush and Co will use that over and over and over and over and over again.

Nothing like a pocketbook issue and a standard "they will raise your taxes" ad that is a sure staple of the GOP when someone like Dean says he will repeal the tax cuts.

Here's a preview of a Reagan ad talking about Mondale's wanting to raise taxes (RealMedia):
http://www.udel.edu/poscir/road/course/commercials/reagan1984-tax-vignettes.ram
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quaker bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #14
34. Of course it will, and candidate selection will make no difference
They already have it scripted and probably mostly filmed. They are just waiting for the us to name a nominee to fill in the blank.

Every single one of them has pledged to raise taxes on someone somewhere along the way. They are all on video saying it and the tape will be edited to suit their purpose.

Even if none of them had said so, the repugs would attack on this topic anyway.

We need to stop buying into the republican mind tricks. Repeat after me 'fear is a mind killer'....
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Racenut20 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:01 PM
Response to Original message
17. These two issues, right or wrong
Same sex marriage & repealing the marriage tax reduction would cost Dr. Dean at least 10% overall vote in my opinion.
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andym Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:25 PM
Response to Original message
19. NO, because he's smart enough to change his position
Once he wraps up the nomination, I hope he'll
change his position to one that only rolls back taxes on those
making more than say 150,000...

He has no qualms about changing his positions when he feels he
has a better understanding of a matter, so I think he won't
hesitate to change this very important position.
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poopyjr Donating Member (251 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. What a joke
Like getting played like a violin, huh?
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arewethereyet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #19
69. and if he does so, his credibility goes further south
his backers will be stunned, and everyone else will realize that he'll say anything to get elected and therefore cannot be believed at all.
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LuminousX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
23. It is the correct position, but it does concern me
Even though the tax cut was a total bogus piece of crap and only a handful of people actually got anything from it, it happens to be one of those things that I can't see going over too well.

The GOP ads will point to the bipartisan support the tax cuts got, both times (thanks Congressional Dems, thanks for screwing the pooch), and claim Dean wants to undo the bipartisan tax cuts.

Dean's position is the correct position. The tax cuts are borrowing on the future, are actually taxes we will have to pay in a decade. That is too abstract and complex for the average voter to understand.

I want Dean to say something like "some of these cuts have to be reversed, but we will have to thoroughly look at them with Congress and see the best way of keeping the stimulus in place while relieving our future tax burden as well." I don't think he will, though. Not that he will stubbornly stick by the complete reversal of Bush's tax fiasco, but he won't appear wishy-washy on the position at this stage of the game.
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MysticMind Donating Member (279 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:51 PM
Response to Original message
27. Definitely...
He's going against the Clinton/Gore middle class tax cut tactics.
In a debate Bush would say ,"Do you support keeping the tax cut for working families?" Dean would say, "No." People will choose the person who promises them less taxes.
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poopyjr Donating Member (251 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. It's not necessarily intelligent, but it's true
People vote on taxes.
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copithorne Donating Member (551 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. The sad part is...
Even if Dean wins, this plan will never pass Congress, even one controlled by Democrats. So, he can fight and bleed over this issue and it won't do a damn bit of good.

I do hope he changes his position, but this is one of the reasons why I switched from supporting Howard Dean to supporting Wesley Clark in the primaries.
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Leilani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #30
61. Agree totally
The tax issue is a big loser.

We are losing our middle class & Dean wants to raise their taxes.

This is 1 reason I don't support him.
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WhoCountsTheVotes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
31. Yes, he should NOT raise any taxes on anyone making 50k or less
Certainly, under no circumstances raise any taxes on anyone making 50k or less - and SAY IT publically. That takes care of something like 85% of the population.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #31
37. Who said he will?
The fact of the matter is that Dean is for relieving the burden on the middle class. He just doesn't think the code in place does a very good job of it. So, two questions:

Do you think these tax cuts do the job?

Are you in favor of trying to do better?
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poopyjr Donating Member (251 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #37
39. All I hear "I'm gonna repeal all of Bush's tax cuts"
You think this will play well to the general public?
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #39
57. It's all you hear
because you're saying it.

So stop saying it and you won't hear it as much.
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WhoCountsTheVotes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 10:22 PM
Response to Reply #57
72. hey, I think Dean is in the right place
I wish his campaign could explain it better, but you won't hear me complaining about Dean and taxes. Just get Dean to say openly, pubically, that he doesn't want to raise taxes on the middle class - anyone making 50k or less, certainly, and there is NO problem.

Dean is sure as hell no liberal, and it's Bush that raised taxes/debt/the deficit on everyone while giving rich people a huge cut.
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quaker bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:12 PM
Response to Original message
32. No
Tax cuts are very low on most (meaning the majority of) people's priorities, read the polling data on this issue.

Even in 2001, most folks approved using the money for Social Security or better schools over tax cuts. This is a winning position.

You have been listening to republicans too much. Chant their mantra:

"Taxes, taxes, you must be afraid of taxes, live in fear for we are the party of low taxes, you must fear us, don't speak up, stay in you place democrats, be afraid of taxes"

Fear of losing the election is a self-fulfiling prophesy. The way to avoid all fear is to stand for nothing, it is also the very best receipe for failure at the polls.
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Miranda2hope Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:17 PM
Response to Original message
33. Dean's Tax Plan
If Dean intends to raise taxes on people earning less than %75,000 a year, for instance, he would be doing something that would be counter-egalitarian, and very hard for a Democrat to support. It's one a bunch of things he has said and done that strike me as ideological rather than logical.

Above all, I want to beat George Bush in November. Not make a pure stand and winding up pure but dead, but winning.

I still don't see how Howard Dean with the kind of things he has been doing and saying does this. It's a question of judgment. I see him beating the other candidates with a schtick he has been using as a stick, rather than actually leading us to a different place. Which is what we will need to do with a majority of the voters in the next election. Which is why I can see Gephardt, Edwards, Kerry, but not Dean actually getting the party there. As for General Clark, I like my Democratic nominees to be Democrats. I know that's old fashioned, but there it is. I didn't support Arnold, Jesse Ventura or H Ross Perot either.
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #33
49. Hi Miranda2hope!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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RamboLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:31 PM
Response to Original message
38. I'm a Dean Supporter and I think he should modify this
He should go after the top 1% cuts first. Besides unless he gets a Dem congress there's no way in hell the Repukes will roll back any of the cuts any way.

I fear this issue could be a killer of Dean.
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
42. It will contribute to his losing.
The middle and "working" classes are not doing great financially and the threat of higher taxes will help drive numbers of them into voting for Bush.

Lets face it, the mere words "higher taxes", real or purported, and regardless of who ends up paying more, will drive voters to Bush. It will reinforce the "tax and spend" label attached to Democrats and will hurt any Democratic candidate. The fact that higher taxes are both necessary and inevitable will not matter.

Along this line, I saw some sobering poll results a while back. Roughly 36% of wage earners believed that they were in the top 1% or were going to be.... Forget about these voters, and many others, with any tax increase (any repeal of tax cuts will be seen as a tax increase).

As long as a candidate can argue that most people will be unaffected by these higher taxes, the loss can be mitigated. Dean's stance has eliminated this option. It will also help the republicans in hanging that fatal label "liberal" around his neck (regardless of whether or not this is true).

But I think that his tax policy will be less harmful to Dean than other issues. Of itself it might not suffice to lose him the election. Indeed even if he were to reverse himself on taxes I believe that this would not be sufficient for him to win. Then again, I do not think that there is any way Dean can win.

In the fear whipped, flag draped election of 2004, the deciding issue will be who can do the best job winning the "war on terrorism". When Americans change leadership during a "war" (arguably 52 and 68), it is to select someone perceived as being "stronger". Dean doesn't fit this bill. Only Clark and perhaps Kerry do.

It is voter perceptions that will decide the presidential election, not the realities of the bushies incompetence in fighting terrorism, conducting foreign policy, protecting constitutional rights, etc, etc. The republicans can be counted on to do their best to distort voter perceptions and any opening provided by the Democratic candidate will harm his chances.

Dean's policy on taxes is one such opening, but there are others (the "war" "character", "liberalism"...), that are perhaps more important... and therein lies the problem.

I wish it were otherwise.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 05:15 PM
Response to Original message
43. How many Presidential candidates have won on a promise to raise taxes?
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QC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #43
79. Mondale got 13 electoral votes with that platform. n/t
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worldgonekrazy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
44. WHAT middle class tax cuts?
The one time $300 tax rebate that served as a bribe to let the rich pay even less taxes? Well you can't exactly take that back now, can you?

The whole damn thing was a sham for the rich. Dean can and will explain this and then people will be more likely to accept his plan. Either that or he will moderate his plan if he must.
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
45. Any candidate who promises to raise taxes on the middle class is doomed nt
nt
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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
46. Yes
It'll hurt him, unless he unveils his plan for an alternative tax scheme soon. He's been hinting he will, so I hope that'll happen.

To be honest, I think his tax policy will hurt him far more than his war policy.
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farmbo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 05:49 PM
Response to Original message
47. Bush's cuts were of income and dividend tax... Why not cut Payroll tax?
Of all the taxes which grind away at the working person's paycheck, the payroll tax-- FICA, FUTA, SS, Medicare-- was not touched by the Bush cuts.

Payroll taxes are particularly regressive, given that persons only contribute payroll taxes up to $65,000...everything after that is tax free. Dean will progressive-ize the payroll tax and provide meaningful relief to the poor and middle class workforce.

Look for action on this tax when Dean secures the nomination.
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #47
64. You may be right. (n/t)
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arewethereyet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #47
71. payroll taxes are calculated to pay a predictable cost
of a guaranteed service. these programs are in enough trouble as it is, no point in taking irresponsible actions to further strain them.

and its more like 87k for the cutoff.

And you are right that he intends to increase these taxes as well.

He'll get filleted in the GE over this stuff.
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corporatewhore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
50. First off i am going to admit i am no political scientist
I can see how if he says i am going toraise taxes on the midclass that will not go over well .Itcan be seen as the big gov.stealing from working people(even though he wants toraise taxes on the rich)and it could be very easy to twist and spin.I know kucinich wants to lower mid class taxes.I think that raising taxes would probably lose him some votes(not a lot)
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:49 AM
Response to Original message
58. He'll have to modify it
As it is now it'll never win the GE. I think that has been his plan all along. So it will be the people who supported him on this that will be disappointed.
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deminflorida Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 01:15 PM
Response to Original message
60. It will Doom Him in the Primaries....
not just the general...
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Zomby Woof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 06:41 PM
Response to Original message
63. foot in mouth disease
Will be his undoing, which is why we MUST prevent him from getting nominated.
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eileen_d Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 06:57 PM
Response to Original message
66. It seems to me that people come out to vote
for a few specific reasons, and one of the primary reasons is taxes -- either to reject or support them. If Dean can get the word out about what the repealed tax cuts will be paying for, maybe his strategy will work. But I doubt it.
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arewethereyet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
70. it is the kiss of death
I know that there are a lot of folks here to choose to see this differently but it will sink him. I've already read how its being projected. Ugly...
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hellhathnofury Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
74. We have an answer to this...
Edited on Sat Jan-03-04 10:48 PM by cynicalSOB1
What middle class tax cut? Tax hike I dare say.

The Bush Tax: How Much Is It Costing You?
Rather than take responsibility for our common future, Bush has shifted costs to states and communities, who then pass them on to you. Across the country, people are seeing their property taxes skyrocket. State college tuition at 4-year schools has increased this year by an average of $579 nationwide. Half a million children have been deprived of health coverage. States and local government have cut vital services, and we’re all having to pay more for less. That’s the Bush Tax.

snip

Our children and grandchildren will be paying the Bush Tax. Bush promised, "I came to this office to solve problems and not pass them on to future presidents and future generations." Yet as a direct consequence of his tax policy, over six years an American family of four will take on $52,000 more in its share of the national debt. That’s the Bush Tax.

The Bush Tax is huge – many times greater than most people’s tax refunds. We’ll be paying the Bush Tax for decades, and so will our children and grandchildren.

http://www.bushtax.com/

Edit: whoops typo in subject line, i must be on something.
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arewethereyet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #74
75. good luck
you should see how the right is already whipping this up $3000 tax increase for a family of 4 at 60K. $2000 for that same family at 40K.

book marked at work, no link, sorry.

who do you think John Q Public is going to believe ?
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arewethereyet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #75
78. what luck, found it off a little on the numbers but you get the idea
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110004500

this guy is just a hack, wait till the GOP gets goint with it.

a little snip...

Take a Hike
Howard Dean wants to raise your taxes, whether you're dead or alive.

BY STEPHEN MOORE
Friday, January 2, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST

The Democratic Party appears to be on an irreversible course to nominate Howard Dean as its candidate for the presidency. Yet while voters in Iowa and New Hampshire may have heard a thing or two about Mr. Dean's economic policies, most Americans have not. Indeed, most voters are unaware that the former governor of Vermont has a plan to raise income taxes on every single American who pays them.

Recently, an organization I run, the Club for Growth, began airing TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire telling voters about the specifics of Mr. Dean's tax proposals. The Dean plan, our ad notes, would raise taxes by $2,472 a year on a typical middle-income family of four. Mr. Dean would also raise the death tax rate, the capital gains tax rate, the dividend tax rate and the payroll tax, and he would bring back the hated marriage tax penalty that President Bush abolished this year. There is hardly a tax levied at the federal level that Howard Dean would not raise.

And although the Dean campaign has howled in protest over this ad--and has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to rebut it with TV ads of its own (which mostly change the subject)--what it cannot deny is that these are precisely the economically destructive changes to the tax code we would see under a Howard Dean presidency. In fact, unlike some recent presidential candidates, Mr. Dean doesn't bother to conceal his plans to raise taxes, he revels in telling America about it.

In the ad, we maintain that Mr. Dean's economic agenda is reminiscent of such unforgettable recent Democratic presidential failures as George McGovern, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. We're willing to admit that this may be a bit unfair. In fact, Messrs. McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis might have reason to complain, because none of them proposed economic policies that would tilt the Democratic Party as far to the left as Mr. Dean has.

Mr. Dukakis, who was ridiculed by Republicans mercilessly as a tax and spender from "Taxachusetts," pledged to voters that he would raise taxes "only as a last resort." Mr. Dean promises new taxes as a first resort. And he would raise them on virtually everyone who has a job and an income tax liability--not just on the "evil rich" Wall Street tycoon, but even on the man who shines his shoes. In fact, I recently analyzed IRS tax data released by the Treasury Department to estimate the impact of the Dean tax on family finances. I found that Mr. Dean's plan would force roughly two million low-income working Americans--that's roughly three times the population of the state of Delaware--who don't pay any income taxes now, to start paying them. This is the candidate who says he's going to be the voice of the little guy in Washington.

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incapsulated Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:29 PM
Response to Original message
76. So, I was watching Dean on c-span...
Edited on Sat Jan-03-04 11:32 PM by incapsulated
And he was talking about this very issue.

But I found his reply rather mystifying. He basically was saying that Americans have already had a big tax and cost increase under Bush. How they are paying more for everything from education to hidden tax increases, on and on he listed them.

And my intitial reaction to this was; well it certainly sounds like they need that extra $350 if things are that bad!

So, why do this? Why burden the middle and lower-middle class further? The answer is so simple, to cut the big tax breaks that Bush handed to the wealthy, raise them to boot, and leave the pittance everyone else is getting in place. I just don't understand how he is going to explain this in a general election to the average voter.
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-03-04 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
77. Krugman seems to think so:

> "So if a Democratic candidate proposes a total rollback of the Bush tax
> cuts, he'll be offering an easy target: administration spokespeople will
> be able to provide reporters with carefully chosen examples of
> middle-income families who would lose $1,500 or $2,000 a year from
> tax-cut repeal. By leaving the child tax credits and the cutout in place
> while proposing to repeal the rest, contenders will recapture most of
> the revenue lost because of the tax cuts, while making the job of the
> administration propagandists that much harder."


http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/17/opinion/17KRUG.html
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