Hot Damn! Obama Overtakes Clinton in PPP Poll of Pennsylvania!

[slinkerwink]

Obama 45-Clinton 43.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf

It’s a remarkable turn around from PPP’s last Pennsylvania poll, conducted two and a half weeks ago, that showed Clinton with a 26 point lead in the state. That poll was released at the height of the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the day before Obama’s major speech on race in Philadelphia. Obama has been trending upward in national polling and in many state level polls since then and this survey reflects that pattern.

[Adelante]

1. Hot Diggity

:)

[slinkerwink]

2. Diggity Dogg!

[Ichingcarpenter]

3. Wow ......... and he was trailing in the same poll 2 weeks ago

This is good news.

[cali]

4. I'm not sure I buy this poll but the trend is clear

Obama is making inroads in PA according to ALL the polls.

[malik flavors]

5. Goodness. That's crazy.

[1776Forever]

6. Just reported this too - All polls Obama +2.6!!!!

Popular Vote 49.5 - 46.9 Obama +2.6
Popular Vote (w/FL) 48.5 - 47.1 Obama +1.4
Nat'l RCP Average 45.0 - 42.8 Obama +2.2
Pennsylvania 42.3 - 48.3 Clinton +6.0
North Carolina 49.8 - 37.8 Obama +12.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[ClayZ]

39. K and R

[JayFredMuggs]

7. Notice that Clinton leads among white older women, whereas

Obama leads in men, younger under 45 men and women, and all non-whites.

The younger votes, the votes of minorities, and youth are Obama's strengths.

[Dems Will Win]

8. This is reflecting all the new people registered from March 24 as well as Tuzla and Casey's

endorsement.

Wait until he and Casey do the stadium tour, an unprecedented TV ad blitz and then they rev up the black vote in Philly and elsewhere.

This poll was out in front on Wisconsin, btw and was the most accurate if I remember.

[Tropics_Dude83]

9. Casey Casey Casey

Easily the most significant endorsement of this primary season I think.

[slinkerwink]

18. Guess Casey's endorsement isn't so insignificant now to the Clintons

[EmilyAnne]

23. And Teresa Heinz Kerry is very loved in PA, or at least in Pittsburgh. She is speaking with

Michelle Obama here today!

[Kermit77]

27. I forgot that Teresa Heinz Kerry was from Pennsylvania

She should help Barack a lot in Penn.

[karynnj]

24. A great endorsement but not the most significant

There likely is no ONE endorsement that was the most significant - it was all of them. Some of the others - in the order they were made that would be candidates would be:

Kerry, who gave a great speech from which the media took some words and frames, some loaned gravitas, a well known surrogate (to balance HRC having Bill). Not to mention that he had his own following.

Kennedy, who could confer the Kennedy legacy label and who was the answer to any attack on Obama as not good on healthcare.

Without Kerry and Kennedy, HRC might have done significantly better on SuperTuesday - the one day when Obama could not spend extensive time in each state. McCasgill was another early endorser who has been a good surrogate.

Richardson - with his Hispanic heritage and the fact that he had very strong connections to HRC.

With Casey, his help in PA is enormous and he had said he would stay neutral - he is a huge deal in PA. But, barring a result unlikely to occur - Obama has won the nomination. Winning PA would likely just end the race faster - so I can't say he was the most significant.

[spotbird]

31. It surly helped

but the sniper fire is what killed her.

[JayFredMuggs]

11. You mean that poll was correct about WI?

more accurate than the others?

[DerekJ]

13. Wisconsin (off by 4 points, all others where off by 8 or more) Texas and Ohio (by 1 point)

[JayFredMuggs]

16. Thanks for that info!

[Dems Will Win]

37. I always thought PPP has the best likely voter methodology

most polls say the usual youth turnout is 11-13% and weight the poll accordingly even if the youth are saying they will turn out heavier.

PPP just goes with the flow and weights it basically at the rate the young people tell them they are going to be voting, even if it's up around 20% or higher.

That's why they are more accurate this year.

[JayFredMuggs]

14. What is important about undecideds is

That some don't even vote, but few of those who do will go to a known name like Clinton. Clinton folks tend to have decided earlier to support her, whereas undecideds who will vote decide late, and often vote for the less known.

[Sensitivity]

20. That has not been true on other states -- last day undecideds go for Clinton

[Pawel K]

10. I'm not gonna buy this until more polls show such a trend

but this is interesting.

[charlie and algernon]

17. Quinn and Ras both have him gaining significant ground

[Pawel K]

22. Yeah, I just saw the Ras poll at RCP. Amazing but I'm still skeptical

I don't want to get too excited yet, I'll wait for Quinn and SurveyUSA to release their next poll to get excited about this.

Shit, wouldn't it be something it Obama actually beat her there? I would still bet she wouldn't drop out after that.

[DerekJ]

12. I thought it's a late AF ...

[Sensitivity]

15. Polling done on April Fools Day! Does that explain it?????

[Catherina]

19. Those damn sexists n/t

:sarcasm:

[EnviroBat]

21. Awesome news!

[DerekJ]

25. kick

[meow mix]

26. nice! hillary has to drop out if she loses PA

}(

[dana_b]

32. no... the goal post will move to Indiana, or Kentucky, or Puerto Rico!!

she said she's not dropping out and I believe her.

[npincus]

28. It's those damn snipers! HRC supporters are taking cover!

:rofl:

[mmonk]

29. Surely you jest.

Wow, that's pretty amazing.

[spotbird]

30. Pennsylvania doesn't count

If those voters don't chose Hillary they should be disenfranchised at the convention. The purpose of the primary is to seat Hillary, not to express the voters will.

[krawhitham]

33. K & R

[ORDem]

34. k&r

:kick:
:woohoo:

[Vinca]

35. This is GREAT!! nt

[liberaldem4ever]

36. K & R!! Awesome!

[4_Legs_Good]

38. Don't count on it! Remeber Zogby

Most of these races have fallen in the direction they were expected to (though not always by the magnitidue expected). I do not expect Obama to win Pennsylvania - it's very much Clinton territory.

Also, I'm much more inclined to trust SurveyUSA who has guessed very well this season, and thier poll from today has him down 12 points - which is a 7 point gain over the past 3 weeks, but still, significantly behind.

I don't doubt he'll do better than expected, but winning is a tall, TALL order. Don't count on it. Count rather on a big victory in North Carolina and Oregon, and an exciting race in Indiana.

David

[BumRushDaShow]

40. Don't count out the Philadelphia vote which often overrides the state in elections. n/t