*NEW* PPP PA Poll - Obama Ahead of Clinton in PA 45-43!!!!

[Bullet1987]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf">Obama Ahead in PA!!!

Stats of significance...

- Obama leading by 15 amoung males, but trailing by 10 amoung women. Gender gap...

- Obama trailing amoung white voters, but not by much.

They have this little disclaimer at the end...Public Policy Polling has the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for the Democratic primaries in South Carolina, Wisconsin, as well as the closest numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.

[leftofcool]

1. Nope, Quinnepac has her in the lead 50 with O at 41

[slinkerwink]

2. all PA polls show movement within Obama's way

[monicaaida]

3. HA

GOBAMA LETS HAVE OUR NH REVENGE

[leftofcool]

4. Yea that's what they said about Ohio too

Quin is the most reliable poll........better than Rasmussen and Zogby

[40ozDonkey]

32. Hillary needs 65% of PA to start to tie.

Good luck.

[democrattotheend]

37. And Quinnipiac has shown movement

Just like all the other polls. And Obama did do better than the early polls in Ohio...the early polls had him losing by close to 20.

[quantass]

40. .

[rocktivity]

57. Quin interviewed 1549 Dem PA voters with a margin of error of 2.5%

So this poll meets my "benchmarks," too.

:headbang:
rocknation

[cali]

5. I agree. My guess is that it's much closer to the Quinnipiac poll

but the trend in ALL the recent polls in PA is crystal clear: Obama is making gains. It's unlikely that Clinton will win the blowout she so desperately needs.

[Bullet1987]

7. Irrelevant...the trend is clear

She doesn't have a 20-30 point lead anymore and Obama is closing the gap FAST!! And PPP HAS been consistent.

EDIT: This post was not to you Cali...

[Schema Thing]

10. why does your post have a "nope" in it?

you didn't challenge the content of the OP, so why the "nope"?

[democrattotheend]

36. That looks more realistic, IMO

Quinnipiac is highly regarded, and it's consistent with SurveyUSA. The Rasmussen one yesterday seemed a little off, but this one seems way off. No way in hell Obama is winning.

[yardwork]

38. That's still a big change in recent days.

[CreekDog]

58. so one poll is better? why? nt

[DerekJ]

6. K & R

[stratomagi]

8. I don't trust it.

But its good to see that the wild inaccuracies are starting to go in Obamas favor. Good sign that the race is tightening.

[gasperc]

9. Obama's team needs to manage expectations

I would have preferred the numbers reversed but sure this is great news. Really puts Hillary's donors against the wall. This will likely galvanize Hillary's supporters as much as Obama's. Obama will need to manage expectations very carefully so that a tight race and a narrow win by Hillary slingshot into some great, miraculous victory.

[Tropics_Dude83]

11. RCP average for PA now just 6.0 points!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bullet1987]

16. The average is the most important thing...

You have one poll showing Clinton winning by less than 10 (Rasmussen) and now the PPP poll showing Obama slightly ahead. It balances against the other polls showing Clinton with 10-12 point leads.

[Pirate Smile]

30. They have done a great job of that so far. Now that is going to be shot to hell.

I hope this poll is true but I'm skeptical. It means it is going to get super nasty over the next three weeks because the Clinton's know it is over if they don't win Penn.

[gasperc]

46. yep

or too good I guess, or more and more people realizing, ok can she reeeealy win? and I don't like that people ask her to quit, it's stupid and counter-productive. I think it's great that Obama and Clinton need to actively campaign in all these states and still bring up Bush and what an A-hole McLame is.

but if the kitchen sink strategy is ebbing, Tonya Harding is a dud, is the bathtub strategy far behind? What would be the point and won't it backfire?

[Ian David]

12. Still not ahead by a number greater than the margin of error, though. n/t

[BigDDem]

13. He must win PA or a HUGE setback

[Jersey Devil]

20. LOL, sure

Clinton has a 20+ lead and all the pressure is on Obama, huh?

[Teaser]

24. I believe the malady you suffer from is called Reality Inversion

You need to see a board-certified Ontologist right away.

[thereismore]

14. WTH? This isn't April Fools day. Is this for real? nt

[Sensitivity]

15. Folks: this may be the APRIL FOOLS EFFECT -- polling done Aprl 1

Racist feel an obligation to screw with the pollster.

[DerekJ]

17. kick

[InsultComicDog]

18. The constituency of bowlers-who-score-under-40

is now solidly in Obama's camp ;)

[meow mix]

19. K&R

!!!!

[DerekJ]

21. kick

[Kukesa]

22. Yes we can!! n/t

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

23. Holy Shit -- Is that poll bi-polar or what?!

This is the same poll that had Clinton up by 26 points last week. I support Obama, but I'm taking this one with a massive grain of salt. A 28-point swing in a single week really defies explanation.

I'll wait and see if other polling bears this out.

[Bullet1987]

26. It was two weeks...not one week...which Obama HAS done in the past already

I do think it's probably closer to the RCP average though...with Clinton ahead by 6 points.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

48. It's still pretty dramatic

not to mention encouraging. The other polls have shown a tightening in the race, just not to this extreme. It's going to be an interesting 2-3 weeks.

[rocktivity]

25. They have the correct sample size (1000+) and margin of error (-3%) for a change

So I'm going to allow myself to be impressed. But actually, anything over 40% is gravy for Obama--in PA and everywhere else from here on in--because it stop Hillary from getting the 66% that SHE needs.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Orsino]

29. Yeah. The margin of error says this one is too close to call.

Could just be an outlier poll. It would take a lot more than this to persuade me that Obama has already closed the gap.

[Tatiana]

27. For once, I don't know what the hell to think.

It's nice to see PA trending for Obama, but by how much? This election will be a very interesting (and exciting) one!

[C_U_L8R]

28. Thank you Hillary

she's handing it to Obama.. hahahahha

[EmilyAnne]

31. Oh my stars!

[Colobo]

33. Gobamaaaaaaaaaa!!!

[quantass]

34. nice

[democrattotheend]

35. THIS IS RIDICULOUS. GET THIS POLL OUT OF HERE

It's way out of whack with other polls, and it ups the ante for Obama in a state that he never had a chance in because Clinton has such a lock on the state party machinery. All this poll does is hurt Obama by raising expectations.

[Bullet1987]

41. I don't think ONE poll this far out will do all of that

We'll have to see what the next Rasmussen PA poll shows. That one has been the closest to what this is showing. If you see Rasmussen continuing Obama's increase...then I'll say it's definently possible he pulls an upset (that'll be two polls showing him within striking distance).

[Unsane]

39. Hillary is heavily favored in PA. This poll is an outlier.

[yardwork]

42. Yes, she's favored, but recent polls show her lead decreasing.

I think that everyone expects Hillary to win PA. The question is - will she win it by the huge margin that she needs to stay in the nomination race? Recent trends don't look good for her.

[Bullet1987]

43. Maybe...but the RCP average is clear...her lead is not all that great

[MadBadger]

52. Heavily favored is a media creation.

[beachmom]

44. Nope. I don't believe it. Remember: PA is a Hillary state. False expectations

get us nowhere.

After listening to a report from Philly on NPR this morning, I'm not going to believe the polls. People don't even know why they support who they support; which means they are malleable to changing position just about every day.

[futureliveshere]

45. Worst expectation management I have seen. Get this guys - OBAMA IS THE UNDERDOG IN PA.

Lets keep him there and overachieve rather than make him the leader and suffer later.

[book_worm]

47. Good news. They detect that Dem primary voters may want to end this

and that may be one reason why the swing towards Obama.

[mckeown1128]

49. Kick and Rec. nt

[Major Hogwash]

50. Because her lie about "ducking sniper fire" matters!

When someone has NEVER been shot at before, it's not a matter of misspeaking, it's a matter of lying about it.

And the Tuzla incident matters!

[Red Zelda]

51. The only April fool here is Rendell

Hey, Eddie, time to go.

[thewiseguy]

53. BOOM BOOM BOOM!

[underpants]

59. I'll add

BOOO-YA!

[MadBadger]

54. Obama 45 (+15), Clinton 43 (-13)

Always wanted to do that...HA!

[krawhitham]

55. K & R

[grantcart]

56. reminds me of something hmmmmm oh yea Wisconsin