Pennsylvania please meet Wisconsin by those crazy guys at PPP

[grantcart]

It is hard to remember what it was like in a state before they voted. It seems obvious now that Obama would take, say Maine. It didn't then.

Wisconsin was always for Obama right? wrong. Wisconsin was the original 'firewall state'. Remember all those very funny posts with the firewalls burning down? Every pundit said that the demographics were for Clinton and that if Obama just finished close it would be good. Three weeks before the election Hillary still had a ten point lead, after her 22 point lead had gone away.

THEN THOSE CRAZY GUYS FROM PPP SHOWED OBAMA LEADING BY 11 POINTS. BEFORE THE ELECTION THEY POLLED OBAMA 52 CLINTON 41 UNDECIDEDS 5.

FINAL RESULT OBAMA 58 CLINTON 41.

PPP WAS THE MOST RELIABLE POLLING OPERATION IN WISCONSIN


Here are the polling results for Wisconsin

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Clinton . . . .Obama . . . Undecided

American Research Group . .42. . . . . . .52 . . . . . . 5

Public Policy Polling . .. . . 40. . . . . . .53 . . . . . . 7

American Research Group . . 49. . . . . . .43 . . . . . . 7

Research 2000 . . . . . . .42. . . . . . .47 . . . . . .11

Rasmussen Reports . . . . . .43. . . . . . .47 . . . . . .10

Public Policy Polling . . . . 39. . . . . . .50 . . . . . .10

Strategic Vision (R) . . . . 41. . . . . . .45 . . . . . .14

American Research Group . . .50. . . . . . .41 . . . . . . 8

Strategic Vision (R) . . . .36. . . . . . .29 . . . . . 10

University of Wisconsin 11/27-12/5/07 260 A 39 26 6
http://www.pollster.com/08-WI-Dem-Pres-Primary.php




PENNSYLVANIA PLEASE MEET WISCONSIN




Pennsylvania is about to piss off a lot of people in North Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.

[democrattotheend]

1. PPP seems to favor Obama, for some reason

They were more accurate than others in places like South Carolina and Wisconsin, where Obama did better than expected, but have overestimated him in other places. The variance between the pollsters may have to do with how they define likely voters. Since Obama tends to do better among people who are voting for the first time, the variance between the pollsters may have to do with how they estimate turnout among first time voters.

[grantcart]

2. I think it has to do with how they model the crossover vote

in PA there is no cross over but a 200,000 people who have newly registered as Democrats.

I think PPP is on the money again.

[papau]

3. 40k of the 50k newly registered in 04 stayed Dem - more Reagan type Dem - not "Obama" type

Reagan type Dem meaning only the post election polling suggests National Security types more than social program types

They are not GOP trying to vote for or against Obama or Hillary.

[grantcart]

4. i am missing your point re: 2008

[gcomeau]

5. PPP had Clinton...

...up by 26 points in PA on their last poll. I doubt it's a matter of PPP favoring Obama.

I do hold their results suspect however seeing as I don;t belive Clinton was up by 26 just a little while ago either. I do not think Obama has actually overtaken Clinton in PA yet. Closed, and closed hard... definitely. Every poll bears out that trend. But not passed.

[grantcart]

6. you may be right - I am just pointing out that PPP was the first to

show Obama taking Wisconsin and their numbers were prophetic.

I don't think the author of the reply meant that they were intending to be pro Obama but that they were modelling a more accurate image of the electorate that happens to favor Obama.

[Bullet1987]

16. Three weeks ago Clinton had damn near a 30 point lead in PA

According to everyone that polled that state. The previous PPP poll came out 2 weeks ago...so it was part of what we'd already seen.

[gcomeau]

25. Ummm... no...

Three weeks ago everyone polling in Pennsylvania had Clinton ahead by an average of about 15 to 17, not 30. There were a couple polls that went above 20 with PPP the highest at 26 but I never bought that result either.

Now they have him within an average of about 6, although I think the PPP result is skewing that a bit and it's probably closer to 8 or so.

Obama is gaining, he is gaining fast, and in a manner that signals that one more nail is about to be put in the coffin of the Clinton campaign (if he finishes within 8 points of Clinton it's beyond over).... there is no need to exaggerate for effect.

[CreekDog]

7. previous PPP poll had HRC 26 points ahead of Obama

and PPP had her nearly tied with him in NC, when nobody else did.

possible selective memory?

[democrattotheend]

8. Just trying not to get my hopes...or expectations...up

Obama's campaign has finally done a good job of lowering expectations and I don't want anything to jeopardize that. I am tempted to get my hopes up about PA, but I know in my heart that he's not going to win it and it's probably not going to be close. I could be wrong, but thus far I have not had any gut feelings this strong that were wrong. I knew on the day of the Ohio primary that Obama was going to lose by a bigger than expected margin and I was dead on.

[grantcart]

11. I understand but what is different know is that Hillary has lost all of her

talking points that worked in Ohio. NAFTAgate nope isn't going to play.


All the media wants to hear is will she droop out or not?


It is impossible for a candidate to get a positive message out when all of their media soundbites are about 'not dropping out'.


It will be interesting to see how it effects her fund raising.


And finally yes it could have ended at Ohio, but and here is the big but; They were battling in 4 states at the same time with only two weeks to prepare.

The last time they were head to head against each other in a single state (Hawaii being uncontested)? Wisconsin.


I think that this is going to look a lot more like Wisconsin than Ohio.

[Coexist]

13. Quinnipac has him within 9, too, close to SUSA's 12

if he keeps this within 9, this race is over, even if the charade continues. If he wins PA, she will have to withdraw right then and there.

[grantcart]

19. and there is still 3 weeks left

[democrattotheend]

21. Obama had the governor's support in Wisconsin, and Wisconsin has same day registration

And that seems to make a big difference, especially in the Rust Belt. Governor Doyle said in an interview after the election that his people had been organizing the state for Obama for a long time before the Obama campaign officially came in.

Also, Wisconsin has same day registration, which was a big help because students could register at the polls. Every state ought to have same-day registration, IMO. It would make it easier to vote and improve turnout (Minnesota has same day registration and usually has turnout upwards of 60%), and Democrats would do a lot better if states had same-day registration, since pre-registration disproportionately affects students and other transient populations, which tend to be the less well-off.

[grantcart]

23. Yes but Obama got 200,000 signed up before the 30 day cut off

and now if there are any Republicans who want to follow Rush they will be out.


Also there is indication in places like NH and Texas that Hillary actually does better in folks who decide in the last 24 hours. So it will be intersting to see if it turns out more similar to Ohio or Wisconsin

[Coexist]

9. but overall, they aren't that great - I'm still wary of them - even Zogby was best for one state:

I'm not ready to get my hopes up - although I hope the great state of PA knows it could help the party immeasurably by putting this thing away for Obama so we can move on to pounding McCain.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards

[grantcart]

14. yes they are in the middle and they must have muffed a few

really badly because as is pointed out by several replies here they have been the best in some.


I think the comparison with Wisconsin is intriguing. If they end up being right here they will have a monster reputation boost.

[Coexist]

17. agreed

[democrattotheend]

22. Zogby also seems to favor Obama

And they, also, were closer to the mark in South Carolina and Wisconsin, where Obama did better than expected, but worse in places where he did worse than expected, like Massachusetts and California (though I knew California was unrealistic for him, given the number of early voters).

[Coexist]

24. Zogby skews Obama in a way that is almost fishy.

[Upton]

10. PPP was closest in Texas and Ohio too

of the seven companies that polled during the final week. 1 point off in Ohio, 2 in Texas.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/03/ppp-best-combined-democratic-numbers-in.html

[JayFredMuggs]

12. Thanks for this exhaustive compilation! eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Why Do Pollsters Always Tout The Polls They Got Right?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Florida_Release_012808.pdf

[grantcart]

18. I am guessing here but it may have something to do with selling their product

[ElsewheresDaughter]

20. Hagel and ES&S counting the votes

[grantcart]

26. evening kick

[JayFredMuggs]

27. Kick

A very informative thread.......one that Hillary supporters should pay attention to.

[crispini]

28. Recommended!

:kick: