Obama v. McCain in the General Election

[featherman]

First point: head to head polling match ups at this point are for entertainment purposes only. The public likes a winner. McCain has already won the GOP nomination. Obama is not yet perceived as the winner of the DEM match up. Once he wins that match up, public perception will improve and Obama will roar out of the convention with a big (if temporary) national lead over McCain. This is a consistent historical pattern.

Obama's advantages in the long haul of the general election: money raising advantage, personal energy/physical fitness, appealing personality, high favorability rating, DEM enthusiasm, badly damaged (Bush) GOP brand name, Dem voter registration edge, appeal with INDs, new voters, high turnout youth vote, highest ever AA voter participation likely

Obama's disadvantages: race, Wright, lack of national security credentials, lack of appeal to Hispanic vote

McCain's advantages: race, MSM love, high favorability rating, military service, RW smear machine,

McCain's disadvantages: Bush, Iraq, the economy, declining voter identification with GOP, age and fatigue in long arduous campaign, GOP "three peat" difficult historically, it's a Dem year, Dem electoral college advantage

The real war will be for the IND vote. McCain and Obama have good IND appeal and may split that overall. This brings two advantages to Obama: Dem's enthusiasm this cycle combined with our numerical advantage in voter identification. McCain's so-so history with the religious right is very unlikely to inspire the "holy war" turnout among the most zealous fundies that waited for hours (for example) in Ohio in 2004 to deliver that state to Bush. I don't see the crusade mentality quite as strong this cycle and without those ground troops the GOP just does not have the numbers to compete with a much more energized Dem base.

[rocktivity]

1. DING DING DING! Featherman, you're our grand prize winner!

...Head-to-head polling matchups at this point are for entertainment purposes only...McCain has already won the GOP nomination. Obama is not yet perceived as the winner...

Right--at this point, NEITHER Dem IS the winner. And as long as there are two Dem versus one GOP candidate, the integrity of a head-to-head vote is null because it's actually a head-OR-head-to-head vote! Which is why I keep this handy...

GET THEE BEHIND ME, POLLS!
UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[featherman]

2. Addendum: long WSJ article on McCain's GOP troubles

Interesting read.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120709422285181841.html