If Hillary Clinton wins PA by 12%...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

she'll be in even worse shape then she is now.

When people say she needs to win every contest by 30%, give or take, from here on they ain't just whistling dixie.

Right now Obama's got a 162 pledged delegate lead.

Obama- 1,415.5
Clinton- 1253.5

There 566 pledged delegates left up for grabs.

If she wins PA by 12%, and their 158 pledged delegates by the same margin, she'd get 88 pledged delegates and Obama would get 70. Making it:

Obama- 1485.5
Clinton- 1341.5

So she would close on Obama's lead, but the pool of pledged delegates up for grabs would only be 406, and she'd still be down by 144 pledged delegates.

So then she'd need to win the remaining states by some 35%, given a 12 pt win in PA. Her chances actually go down.

So that's why we're not fooling when we say Clinton needs a 30% pt win in PA. And she doesn't win the nomination if she does it, she'd just be on the right track. She's also need to win by 30% in North Carolina, West Virginina, Indiana, Oregon, etc.

Boy, I sure hope nobody gets upset. It's just simple math.

[antigop]

1. But, math is HARD.

:sarcasm:

[Cheap_Trick]

2. there ya go again with your facts and math

ya wanker..

[Clintonista2]

3. Nobody denies that Obama will enter the convention with more delegates

It comes down to how the superdelegates will vote.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. So you're saying PA doesn't count.

Doesn't that disenfranchise the voters?

[Clintonista2]

19. Of course not

Hillary may very well end up with the popular vote by the convention, in which case the "will of the people" support her.

[EnviroBat]

7. Oh yeah, it's that pesky super delegates thing...

But but but but, the soooooper delegates!





Will pledge Obama.

[Clintonista2]

22. They will? Why haven't they?

One would think that with this whole nomination battle "wrapped up," the supers would rush to Obama and end this thing. :eyes:

[ButterflyBlood]

10. Even in such a case, she'd need more than 60% of remaining superdelegates

She currently has less than that, and since Super Tuesday they've been breaking for Obama at an insane rate.

[Clintonista2]

20. One has to ask...

If Obama has this thing wrapped up, why havent the 300+ remaining superdelegates rushed to support him? :eyes:

[ButterflyBlood]

24. And if they're such Hillary lovers, why not rushing to support her?

Please note that roughly 70 of the remaining superdelegates haven't even been chosen yet. Obama doesn't even need a majority of the remaining ones, Hillary needs well over a superrmajority.

[Clintonista2]

26. Good question!

The answer to that, is that many simply don't know who they will vote for yet. This is why claims by Obama supporters that Hillary has a "math problem" and could NEVER win is so false. Hillary will most likely win the vast majority of the remaining states, and may end up with the popular vote. I'm not saying she will, I'm saying she might. If I were an unbiased superdelegate, the popular vote + a string of last-minute wins, would probably heavily influence my opinion.

[ButterflyBlood]

27. Hillary's "math problem" is that she needs far more.

If things go 50/50, she still loses, even if she wins the remaining states in landslides. And in fact, many superdelegates though their identities haven't been chosen yet, are pretty much in the bag of one candidate. Those are the "add-on" superdelegates, elected by either the state Democratic Committee or at the state convention. The state conventions elected by caucuses...which Obama overwhelmingly won. The ones elected by the state committee are still in the air, but this has been benefiting Obama. After all, of the states that have elected their's so far, the Obama states (Alabama and Connecticut) elected Obama supporters, while the Hillary states (Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee) all elected currently uncommitted ones.

So Hillary needs an even larger number of truly in play superdelegates than the number currently shows.

[Clintonista2]

28. Nobody denies that it's an uphill battle for Hillary

But I think you would agree that the race is FAR from "over".

[Zachstar]

13. So why have a primary?

I mean if the supers are going to overturn the delegates then hell why not just give Clinton a golden crown and call this the kingdom of America?

[Clintonista2]

21. Well hang on a minute...

You Obama supporters are so keen on enforcing the "rules" when it comes to disenfranchising florida and michigan, yet not so keen on enforcing the rules when it comes to superdelegates voting for Hillary. Superdelegates can vote for whomever they wish, for whatever reason, as those are the rules.

[northzax]

23. so if HRC wins Pennsylvania

you will insist that all Superdelgates from Penn vote for her? since, you know, doing otherwise would overturn the will of the people? cause I have to tell you, if people should vote the way their states did, then Clinton picks up 35 Obama SuperDelegates in just California and Massachusetts alone. 3 more in New Hampshire, 8 more in New Jersey (cancelled out by 8 clinton to Obama people from Maryland and DC) 4 more in Ohio (with ten uncommitteds, total of 14) fact is that more populated states, and more traditional democratic strongholds have more SuperDelegates to play with.

[azmouse]

5. HRC people don't need no stinkin' facts....

They've got indignation and outrage on their side.

[cali]

6. Let me play devil's advocate

If Clinton wins PA by 12 and then goes on to win KY and WV by 25+ and Indiana by 10 or 15, and only loses NC by 10 and wins Puerto Rico by 20, she may perform well enough to convince enough SDs to jump on board.

[here_is_to_hope]

18. Dont forget Poland-er, Oregon!

Where Hillary will get smoked by 30 percent or more....

[Bonobo]

8. Math is SEXIST!

[Buzz Clik]

11. The daughter had a talking Barbie that would say, "Math is hard."

I threw the damned thing away. I replaced it with one that said no bullshit.

[quantass]

17. LOL! I also remember a Simpson episode where Lisa had the same doll

..when Simpsons were funny (anything prior to season 7).

[Zachstar]

9. But but math hates Clinton!!!111!!!

My guess is Obama will get that down to 5 percent before primary day. He is going steady while Clinton continues to make mistakes. If he stays strong and gets it down to 5 while remaining strong in delegate rich areas.. The day will be yet another disaster for the Clinton campaign.

[nxylas]

16. But no doubt she'll still spin it as a stunning victory

As she would even if she got 50%+1 vote. And I doubt anyone in the media will call her on it. They're still saying she won Texas.

[Voice for Peace]

12. K&R Simple math always the best. thanks! nt

[Upton]

14. This is obviously misogyny by the numbers

What nerve! You must be afraid of strong women that lie a lot.

[VolcanoJen]

15. And, doesn't Arkansas remain the only state she's won with 60% of the vote?

While Obama's won eight states by that margin and more?

Math is hard! :-)

[C_U_L8R]

25. Rocky don't do math

or know when to quit.

[phrigndumass]

29. Nerd alert: Every 3 ppts below 65% in PA requires an additional 1.33% in all remaining states ...

Senator Clinton needs 65.2% of all pledged delegates in all remaining primaries to catch up. For every 3 ppts below 65 in Pennsylvania, she'll need an additional 1.33% of the take in all remaining primaries:

If PA goes 65% Clinton, then Clinton needs 65.0% in all remaining primaries (stays even)
If PA goes 62% Clinton, then Clinton needs 66.3% in all remaining primaries
If PA goes 59% Clinton, then Clinton needs 67.7% in all remaining primaries
If goes PA 56% Clinton, then Clinton needs 69.0% in all remaining primaries
(that last one is Clinton +12 as described in OP)

... as far as I know.

:dunce:

(for those who will argue, "But you didn't mention superdelegates" ... I also didn't mention Tea in China.)

[yodermon]

30. Why is she even campaigning any more? She should focus ONLY on the Super Delegates.

Take the campaign straight to Them. She CAN'T win with PD's so why even bother?
Time to send cousin Guido to the supers for a visit, I say!

[phrigndumass]

31. Now THAT is what a good point looks like

:thumbsup: