Clinton Beats McCain in Key Swing States - OH, FL, PA

[OzarkDem]

and ahead of Obama 50-41 in PA

...April 2,2008 Clinton holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 53 - 41 percent lead in a March 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.

Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;
Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

[democrattotheend]

1. Obama is ahead in PA and Ohio also

Albeit by less than Clinton, but still, this poll is mostly good news for all of us. Both of our candidates are leading in two of the three big swing states. And honestly, I don't think Florida is going to be as important this year anyway. My boss has been doing political strategy for 20 years, and he said months ago that Florida was likely to be less important, and that was back when everyone assumed Clinton would be the nominee.

This poll is good news for Democrats, period. I don't care if Obama is leading McCain by less than Clinton in Ohio. Both Democrats are leading in Ohio, and I'm celebrating!

[OzarkDem]

4. Clinton ahead of Obama 50-41 in PA

in Quinnipiac's PA primary poll

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/sw/sw04022008.doc

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 – 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 – 37 percent with women, and ties Obama 46 – 46 percent with men. Obama leads 51 – 42 percent among voters under 45 years old, while Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among voters over 45.
By a 48 – 42 percent margin, Pennsylvania registered voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Obama gets a 49 - 31 percent favorability and McCain gets 47 – 31 percent.

[Alexander]

6. Wow, 9 whole points! She was ahead by 25, then 15, then 10...

And you get excited about a single-digit lead?

The campaign must not be going well, in that case.

[OzarkDem]

13. Same happened in Ohio

He narrowed her lead a little by spending a lot of money, but she ended up winning by a double digit margin.

PA is likely to play out the same.

[Alexander]

18. You forgot Texas - a bigger state that she lost.

"He narrowed her lead a little by spending a lot of money, but she ended up winning by a double digit margin."

10 points is barely a double-digit margin, and her largest victory since Super Tuesday (the day he beat her in delegates, no less).

"PA is likely to play out the same."

Too bad another poll shows him only 5 points behind - a single-digit lead for Hillary - along with another poll that shows him 2 points ahead - and there's 3 weeks to go.

[OzarkDem]

26. Caucus vs closed primaries

Obama doesn't do well in states where everyone has to be registered to vote and declare themselves as Democrats.

Texas had some caucuses where he was able to pick up support, but he didn't win by much of a margin.

It doesn't help for the GE, though, unless you think Obama can carry Texas in the GE.

Primaries are one thing, but the most important barometer is which candidate can carry the key swing states in the GE.

[Alexander]

30. Nonsense. Obama won CT, DE, CO, DC, MD, NE, and UT - all closed primaries.

In fact, he won more closed primary states than Hillary Clinton did.

"Texas had some caucuses where he was able to pick up support, but he didn't win by much of a margin."

A win is a win is a win. Texas is a big state and he won it. He kept the primary close and trounced Hillary in the caucus. You can't spin that.

"It doesn't help for the GE, though, unless you think Obama can carry Texas in the GE."

1. Primaries are no indicator of who will win them in the GE. According to that ludicrous talking point, Kerry should've won 46 states in the general election. Ask President Kerry how that turned out.

2. Neither candidate will win Texas. However, Obama has consistently been polling ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico and Wisconsin - had Kerry won those states, he would've been president, regardless of the Ohio shenanigans.

"Primaries are one thing, but the most important barometer is which candidate can carry the key swing states in the GE."

Yes, and Obama polls ahead of Clinton in 7 critical swing states. He does better than her in Washington and California as well. They perform equally in Pennsylvania and now Clinton is doing worse than him in New Jersey - a state she won in the primary, in her own backyard, and a state we need to win in the GE.

Don't believe me, check the polls here.

http://www.pollster.com/

I just shot your argument to hell. Better luck next time.

[OzarkDem]

27. She's ahead by nine points

that's good enough.

[Alexander]

31. It's not good enough considering she's behind by 130 delegates...

...and the superdelegates have made perfectly clear they're not going to give the nomination to anyone but the leader in pledged delegates.

[OzarkDem]

36. Sure it is

This is a primary. When it comes to "pledges" and delegates, nothing is carved in stone.

[democrattotheend]

11. I'm just glad they are both winning PA and Ohio

that's good news for everyone. And 9 points is not so bad...if Obama can keep the margin in single digits in PA that'll be a partial victory. And it's a few points better than where he was in the last Quinnipiac poll. If he can continue to cut the lead by 3 points a week they'll be tied by the time of the primary.

[OzarkDem]

15. PA is key for the GE

Kerry won it last time, but it helped that he lived there.

Gore lost PA in 2000, its not an easy state for Dems to win in the GE by any stretch.

[democrattotheend]

17. Gore won PA in 2000

51-47

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/

[Alexander]

19. Wow, you shillbots really are uninformed. Gore won Pennsylvania.

I guess it's true what they say - uninformed Democrats go for Hillary.

[Justitia]

21. LOL

[OzarkDem]

22. I stand corrected, thanks

I still have PTSD from the 2000 presidential election and have fortunately blacked out some of those memories.

As info. I worked on Gore's 2000 campaign, in another state. Even got to drive a car of journalists in his motorcade. Let me guess, in 2000 you were still peeing in your jammies.

[Alexander]

33. You certainly think you know a lot about me. But you don't.

"I still have PTSD from the 2000 presidential election and have fortunately blacked out some of those memories."

That's too bad, it could help you gain some perspective on this race so we can avoid another 8 years of misery.

"As info. I worked on Gore's 2000 campaign, in another state. Even got to drive a car of journalists in his motorcade."

Actually, I worked on Gore's 2000 campaign as well, in Connecticut. I did canvassing and phone-banking.

You know what's the most interesting thing? I wasn't old enough to vote. I was 17. I was a registered Democrat - in CT they let you register at 17 - and I worked for a presidential campaign before I could even vote.

So when you make arrogant, dumb-ass statements like this:

"Let me guess, in 2000 you were still peeing in your jammies."

You are dismissing not only my efforts but the efforts of a lot of people like me - kids on their way out of high school who decide to take action and work to elect who they want to see in office.

No wonder Hillary is losing the 18-25 vote so badly. If your post is any indication, her supporters have nothing but contempt for the effort young voters put into campaigns.

I'll post your ignorant statement one more time, just to emphasize the disdain with which you view young voters and activists like me.

"Let me guess, in 2000 you were still peeing in your jammies."

Let me guess, you're too much of an arrogant prick to admit that you were dead wrong on this one.

[OzarkDem]

38. First off, did you read my subject line?

It says "I stand corrected, thanks". I think that's an admission I was wrong and appreciated your reminding me of it.

My comment about PTSD was meant to be self-deprecating humor, I'll add a little laughing smiley next time.

I'm also glad you worked on the Gore campaign in 2000, you should be proud of it. My son was about the same age then. But younger voters need to realize that the problems Dems have faced in winning past presidential elections can't be blamed on those in the older generation who have been politically active. You have to realize, we watched with great frustration as Gore, Kerry got chewed up and spat out by the GOP and the news media. The mistakes of DC insiders are just as painfully obvious to us as they are to you younger folks.

One of our party's problems is that it spent too many years not bothering to build a "farm team" encouraging good Dems to run for office. Its had some crappy leadership that has frustrated Dems of all ages. It's been hard to turn around because the GOP did such a thorough job of controlling the funding, media coverage and the election system, but we're turning it around.

We still don't have perfect candidates to run for the WH yet. Neither one is what we want them to be, but we can't continue to fix things if we blame each other for the problems.

Sorry to hurt your feelings w/ the "jammies" remark, but we older folks are getting a little annoyed with being blamed for all the ills of the party.

[The Ghost]

20. huh?

Kerry doesnt live in PA, he lives in Beacon Hill (Boston). He IS a Senator from MA.

[OzarkDem]

24. This may come as a surprise to you

But his wife is Theresa Heinz Kerry. Her former husband was PA Sen. John Heinz III and she owns a $4 million estate in Fox Chapel, PA, outside of Pittsburgh, where she and John spend a lot of time. Its the home base for the Heinz family.

So yes, that fact helped Kerry win PA in 2004 and he relied on it heavily and campaigned a lot there.

Like I said, PA is a difficult state to win, but its essential for the electoral votes to take the GE. Any Dem who wants to win, needs to take PA, OH, FL and MI. Obama fans have already written off FL, MI and OH as states he "doesn't need" to win. Are you now going to add PA to that list, too?

Pray tell, which large population red states is Obama going to win to make up for all those electoral votes?

[The Ghost]

28. Why does that come as a surprise to me?

John Kerry is my senator, I know full well where his wife is from. But because he spends some nights there, I dont think that helped him win PA.
wha
As for the rest of your post, I didnt talk about any of that stuff, so not sure where that came from, or what you somehow assume Im thinking.

[BzaDem]

12. I hope you are right.

I don't see how though. There is no way we can possibly win without Ohio and PA if we lose FL. Considering we were way ahead in both this time in 2004, it looks discouraging. Though I still have hope.

[Oreo]

2. Polls change

Hillary was 19 points up in PA. She's not anymore.
What makes you think Obama can't do the same thing against McCain?

[OzarkDem]

5. She's still up 9 points

and if PA is like OH, that lead will hold and expand to double digits on election day.

[Alexander]

7. You forgot - she was ahead by 20+ points not too long ago.

Whoopsie.

[OzarkDem]

23. See my post above about Ohio

and don't you think its sacrilege to use a Wellstone avatar when you attack, insult and disparage fellow Democrats?

[Alexander]

37. Ohio, the state she won by lying about NAFTA?

Big deal.

"and don't you think its sacrilege to use a Wellstone avatar when you attack, insult and disparage fellow Democrats?"

No, because I stand up for liberals, progressives and real Democrats, not wishy-washy, DLC-loving, pro-corporate DINOs.

And I don't attack nearly as much as you do - for example, your rather disgusting and idiotic comment about what I was doing 8 years ago would most certainly fit your definition of an attack and an insult on a fellow Democrat.

Pot, meet kettle. Sorry your arguments are so poor that you have to resort to poutrage.

[americanstranger]

9. If losing 10 points of a lead is 'holding and expanding'...

...then yeah, you're right.

- as

[OzarkDem]

25. Yep, it happened in OH

It happens in these large midwestern states where Obama has little history with voters, while Clinton is more well known. She starts out with a big lead until he comes into the state and campaigns, picks up some support, but it tends to level off around election day.

These states have problems with their economies and jobs and health care are big issues; they're also states where there's a higher than average interest in politics, for better or for worse.

There's an initial surge of interest in Obama when he comes into the state, but once everyone gets a chance to look at his issues platform, etc., some of the initial interest wanes. Its a tough sell in these states, Dem voters know their stuff.

[Alexander]

34. The only reason she won Ohio is because she lied about NAFTA.

The only state you can cite with this phenomenon is Ohio, because in every other state Obama either closes the gap - like in the Texas primary - or completely overtakes her - like in Wisconsin.

There's still three weeks to go and according to the most recent polls, Obama's either down 9, down 5 or up 2. Add Hillary's sniper fire lie to the mix along with Bob Casey's endorsement of Obama, and it doesn't look good for your candidate.

[melody]

3. Once the Democrats can stop beating up on each other, either one will crush McCain

There will be very little left of him.

The fact he's polling so weakly when NO light is being focused on his dismal possibilities while Clinton and Obama are still pounding each other, is telling.

[anonymous171]

8. MY dead dog beats McCain in a district of WA state.

[BootinUp]

35. Typical worthless post in defense of Obama. nt

[goldcanyonaz]

10. Very important numbers outta very iimportant states.

:woohoo:

[TheDoorbellRang]

14. Cool. Now if only this was November 4th...

[Debi]

16. Is April 2nd general election day?

No?

Then the general election polls don't mean anything.

:crazy:

[MadBadger]

29. How does she do in WA, OR, IA, WI?

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

32. And CO, VA, NM?