New Poll data - Obama ahead by 2 points in PA!

[bhikkhu]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Looking at the first on the list - this may be an outlier, but the same poll that placed Obama as 26 pts down two and a half weeks ago now shows: Obama 45, Clinton 43 - a virtual tie.

Other interesting things are that both Hillary and Barack poll to beat McCain in PA in the General. And, needless to say, nearly every one of these polls is within the margin of error to switch winners.


edited to fix data error, title changed to reflect

[Blondiegrrl]

1. Interesting! I think this is indicative of a trend. n/t

[usregimechange]

2. You have juxtaposed the %s, Obama is winning in PA by 2 points

[bhikkhu]

3. Thanks...fixed and updated

I hardly ever post, and it would figure that I have to go back, fix and retitle when I do.

This was certainly good news, though.

[usregimechange]

5. You bet and no worries, I edit more post than not...

[meow mix]

4. woot K&R

:toast:

[usregimechange]

6. K and R to the greatest page!

[caligirl]

7. don't get happy about that number yet. Looking at other polls out today I don't

think the 'tie' scenario will arrive for another week or two. BO has been slowly erasing Hil's leed by 5% weekly since mid March. Now as of today they are 5% apart in one poll and 12% apart in another. So I am hoping for a tie by the time Pa votes.

[bhikkhu]

8. Not "too" happy...but it sure could be worse

the possibility of an outlier is noted, but that the same poll 2 1/2 weeks ago had him down 26 pts is at least a likely confirmation that there is no method bias.

If this is anywhere close to reality, as it is likely to be, the end of the race is in sight. Hillary needs at least a 10 pt win in PA to stay in the game.

edit - sp.

[grantcart]

16. PPP went ahead of the pack in Wisconsin and was the first to predict

an Obama win there. There final prediction had Clinton within one percent - they also were very good in Texas.

[davidinalameda]

9. this would be the final nail in the coffin!

[Up2Late]

10. No he's not! The poll has a Margin of Error factor of +/-2.8! So +2.0 = a TIE!

And that's if you don't take into the "other factors" that they are choosing not to show in their numbers or the fact that "Public Policy Polling" only had the most accurate numbers in ONLY FOUR of the nearly FORTY primaies so far!

What is that, 10% accurate? :dunce: Oh sure, he must be WAY ahead! :silly:

PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31st and April 1st. The
survey’s margin of errors is +/- 2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed
and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Public Policy Polling had the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for
the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest
numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.

[bhikkhu]

11. True, same as every poll. Yet the statistical result stands in favor of Obama

rather than the other way around, which is something to consider.

[Up2Late]

17. No they don't! Do you understand what "Plus or Minus margin of error" means?

It means that if the numbers they are posting are 48% Obama/46% Hillary could just as easily be Obama at 45.2%/Hillary 50.8%!

And that's without the "other factors" figured in. Until he gets outside the "margin of error" the numbers are meaningless.

Plus, it's still 3 WEEKS until the primary, a lot can change for good or bad for either candidate in that much time.

[bhikkhu]

20. I know, I know...I have studied statistics.

and the "outlier" possibility is in the OP. No problem with it being waved about, though.

Obama could well lose PA, but again less than a 10 pt loss is still a win, with things sitting as they are. That is the real point.

[Life Long Dem]

12. Most thought she should have gotten out.

She will get what she deserves.

[bhikkhu]

13. Timing is everything...

the "narrative" of her campaign has yet to be written in full. I hope it will be positive, and you can retire the pic.

[grantcart]

18. the big problem she has with her narrative is that she has to give it up

and all the MSM is covering is the fact that she is not quitting


This is avery negative message for supporters to keep hearing and will depress contriubtions - funny how we haven't heard anything on them at all.

[Life Long Dem]

21. "negative message for supporters" Yeah - it's not good.

Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall.

Obama takes the lead in Pennsylvania...
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/04/obama-takes-lead-in-pennsylvania.html

[grantcart]

14. PPP PA poll mirroring their polling in Wisconsin

It is hard to remember what it was like in a state before they voted. It seems obvious now that Obama would take, say Maine. It didn't then.

Wisconsin was always for Obama right? wrong. Wisconsin was the original 'firewall state'. Remember all those very funny posts with the firewalls burning down? Every pundit said that the demographics were for Clinton and that if Obama just finished close it would be good. Three weeks before the election Hillary still had a ten point lead, after her 22 point lead had gone away.

THEN THOSE CRAZY GUYS FROM PPP SHOWED OBAMA LEADING BY 11 POINTS. BEFORE THE ELECTION THEY POLLED OBAMA 52 CLINTON 41 UNDECIDEDS 5.

FINAL RESULT OBAMA 58 CLINTON 41.

PPP WAS THE MOST RELIABLE POLLING OPERATION IN WISCONSIN


Here are the polling results for Wisconsin

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Clinton . . . .Obama . . . Undecided

American Research Group . .42. . . . . . .52 . . . . . . 5

Public Policy Polling . .. . . 40. . . . . . .53 . . . . . . 7

American Research Group . . 49. . . . . . .43 . . . . . . 7

Research 2000 . . . . . . .42. . . . . . .47 . . . . . .11

Rasmussen Reports . . . . . .43. . . . . . .47 . . . . . .10

Public Policy Polling . . . . 39. . . . . . .50 . . . . . .10

Strategic Vision (R) . . . . 41. . . . . . .45 . . . . . .14

American Research Group . . .50. . . . . . .41 . . . . . . 8

Strategic Vision (R) . . . .36. . . . . . .29 . . . . . 10

University of Wisconsin 11/27-12/5/07 260 A 39 26 6
http://www.pollster.com/08-WI-Dem-Pres-Primary.php




PENNSYLVANIA PLEASE MEET WISCONSIN




Pennsylvania is about to piss off a lot of people in North Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.

[Muttocracy]

15. trends improving for him there - more PA polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

[bhikkhu]

19. That is a nice graph - thanks.

[DemVet]

22. Nevermind that most other polls have Hillary beating Barry by..

about 10 points.