The biggest clue that Obama will be the nominee is the SD trend of the past 2 months

[cali]

Over the past 2 months, since Super Tuesday, Obama has picked up 70 SD endorsement to Clinton's 9. And it's her lack of SD endorsements in this period that's the problem for her, even more than his prowess at raking them in. Obama is now only about 30 SD endorsements shy of Clinton- and the vast majority of her SD endorsements came prior to a vote being cast- clearly by people who saw her as the inevitable nominee. Once the inevitability factor crumbled, the SD endorsements dried up for her. As in other departments, it seems Clinton has an SD ceiling.

No, it's not absolute. Conceivably, Obama's candidacy could implode and SDs could put Hillary over the top, but it is unlikely. My guess is that by the time PA rolls around, Obama will have further cut into Clinton's now slim SD lead. He already leads in elected SD endorsements- in other words, their peers. And then there's the "Pelosi number". And Obama is inching up on that.

Will enough SDs wait until the convention to vote, thus leaving the party without a nominee until the end of August? Very, very doubtful. Once the voting is over, they'll push someone- Obama, unless he implodes- over the 2025 line. And I see no scenario where Clinton stays in once that happens. SDs and party bigwigs do not want this going to the Convention floor.

[DemVet]

1. Who will these SD's...

...vote for if Senator Clinton overtakes Senator Obama in the popular vote after all the primaries are said and done?

Neither will have the required 2025 delegates to secure the Nomination. Another yardstick will be required by the SD's to make their choice.

The Nomination is then up for grabs.



edit...clarity because I didn't have my morning coffee yet :bounce:

[cali]

2. What are you trying to say? How on earth can she ovetake

him after the voting is finished, except by SD endorsements? I said that's possible, but ONLY if Obama implodes over the next 8 weeks and Hillary beats him soundly in 8 or so of the remaining 10 contests. That's very unlikely. I suppose if he were found with the proverbial dead girl/live boy sometime after the voting is over, that SDs would abandon him and flock to her, but that's even sillier, and the same could be said about Hillary. It's no more likely that Obama will implode than Hillary will.

Deny it all you wish, but the SD trend over the past couple of months is CLEARLY in Obama's favor.

[DemVet]

5. Uh....

Insert "in the popular vote" in my original post.

[mikekohr]

7. Popular Vote Pugilism

Senator Obama is up by 827,308 popular votes, excluding MI and FL. Senator Obama's name was not on the ballot in MI and 40% choose to vote uncommitted. In Florida the "no campaign pledge" gave a big advantage to the candidate with the greatest name recognition at that point, Senator Clinton. Both of those results are tainted beyond repair and can not be reconciled, short of a re vote, which has been ruled out. Irregardless, if FL's and MI's vote totals were included, Senator Obama still leads, albeit by only 204,227 votes.

Given the current polling data available, it is clear, assuming these numbers hold, that Senator Obama's lead in the popular vote will hold or increase.

Since 2/5/2008 Senator Obama has picked up approximately 70 SDs. Senator Clinton has picked up five. Senator Clinton's narrowing lead in SDs, about 30 at this point, is based on "early commitments," secured before the primary season began, when it appeared she was the inevitable nominee.


It is still mathematically possible for Senator Clinton to overtake Senator Obama in the popular vote, but not probable short of a scandal or egregious mistake on Senator Obama'a part. Given his performance thus far, that is also unlikely.

We have two tough candidates left. Both a a credit to our party. We are in the 12th round of a championship fight. One competitor has landed more jabs (popular votes), more power shots and body blows (blowout victories), and won far more rounds (primaries and caucus's) and enters the last round with more endurance and wind (money and organization). The other contender came off her stool at the start of this round, tired, bloody and desperate for a knockout blow. As a former golden glove boxer I have seen enough fights to know how this is going to end. Even in Hollywood, Rocky Balboa, could not pull off a last minute knockout of Apollo Creed.


source:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Uben]

3. SDs can change at any time

They are not static

[cali]

4. yes, yes. but in reality very few actually do.

And if they put Obama over the magic number in June, it's all over for Hillary.

[C_U_L8R]

6. That argument gets weaker and weaker

as every day another Superdelegate pledges their
support publicly to Senator Obama while Hillary
is actually losing Superdelegates.

Sure Hillary can have wishful thinking
but that is not what Hope is all about.
Hope is defining a clear goal and path
and doing the very hard things that will
get you there. Obama is earning it.
And he is winning.

[tiptoe]

8. Graphic confirmation of the Super Delegate trend since Feb 20 ...

...and the Delegate Calculator, "an Excel worksheet for projecting the total number of pledged and super delegates":

see http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5345635&mesg_id=5352028