Is Hillary saving a huge pile of promised endorsements for a final bang?

[SaveAmerica]

I'm starting to think the entire Superdelegate thing is something that's used as a primary tool. As the candidates get the solid support of a Superdelegate, they decide how they can use that to the benefit of their campaign. I think Obama's team is strategically using his confirmed SuperD support in a steady stream of announced Endorsements. For example: Casey just as Obama starts his PA bus tour, Edwards and the NC Reps - if he has them - right before he starts an NC bus tour (I've been waiting for the endorsement of Rep. Mel Watt who was the Chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus - his speeches and thoughts on the way the country is going meshes with Obama's). If Hillary had any major endorsements, wouldn't it be a strategic advantage to show other SuperD's that she does have those endorsements already? She could then reveal the complete pile at the end, if that's where their hope lies? Or do you think she has a pile she's going to wow people with at the end?

[BeyondGeography]

1. I think that's Bill's job

[GarbagemanLB]

2. At this point she is probably just trying to hold on to the ones she already has instead of getting

new ones.

[lisa58]

3. One of the discussions yesterday on MSNBC was...

...that the Hillary SD's are all the ones Bill secured for her before the primary season - Chuck Todd is under the impression that if you were a SD for Hillary, you're already on board.

[C_U_L8R]

4. They're certainly tools :-)))

Just kidding. Seriously I don't know how many would be left
for Hillary's 'big bang' at the rate they are all going for Obama.
It might be a very itty bitty bang.

[jobycom]

5. That's possible. Momentum or the appearance of it is critical in an election

Obama used a string of victories in states he was supposed to win to create the impression that he was inevitable. Clinton obviously used her donations lead and her polling lead earlier to create the same impression. If you can look and act like the winner people start believing you've won.

Now we're entering a string of primaries Clinton is expected to win. If she does strongly in them (except NC, probably), and a series of superdelegates begin declaring for her, she creates the impression of momentum going into the convention. That gives other supers an excuse to back her, and weakens Obama's claim that he should get the supers because of his delegate lead.

Not saying it will work. But she could be trying it. She did ask her superdelegates to stop announcing their support a while back, and that's when her endorsements dropped off. People like Boxer say vague things like "I'm not endorsing her yet but I do plan to vote for her." Given the closeness of the polls, and the close division amongst party veterans, it is odd that so many endorsements have gone Obama's way lately. I know Clinton has a lot more support than you'd conclude from reading DU.

You may be on to something. Or not. :) But it's an interesting question.

[susankh4]

9. I tend to agree.

"Momentum or the appearance of it is critical in an election"

And, maybe I'm a little too conspiracy oriented but... I also think Barack and Hill are in-cahoots on the final outcome. Lots of "winkin' and noddin'" going on if you ask me.

The cliffhanger is good for the party.... we get all kinds of press. Noone gives a hoot about McCain. And... in the end there will still be HUGE momentum for BOTH members of our team.

[jobycom]

13. I don't think they are in cahoots on the final outcome, but

I suspect they have an agreement on the end game. They have a plan for how to reconcile the party once one wins, and may have a few concessions promised the other. But I don't think either would agree to letting the other win.

[susankh4]

14. Do you think....

they already know that the "loser" will be VP?

Just curious....:evilgrin:

[jobycom]

16. I think

that Obama would be Clinton's running mate. I don't think Clinton would be his, for a few reasons. One, she has no leverage at this point to bargain such an agreement. The only leverage would be to drop out, and she's not doing that. That could change, but I doubt she'll quit unless she's beaten, and that still would give her no power.

Second, she brings nothing really to the ticket. Obama will already win Clinton's strongest states (New York, California, Illinois). They are so alike in policy that she doesn't bring anything ideologically. And she's not popular enough to help him. She might even make it harder for him, since so many Republicans don't like her. She does add experience, but he can get that with Richardson or a number of others. Her as VP would only help her.

If she wins, though, Obama brings a ton to the ticket. He's popular in the South, which could put Tennessee and Arkansas and Louisiana into play. He's got a national rock-star image. And most of all, it would reconcile the anger that Obama supporters will have if she wins.

Of course, I'm guessing. :) But that's what I think.

[susankh4]

18. Hmmm.....

"she brings nothing really to the ticket."

How about half the votership?

[jobycom]

24. Most of those voters

will already vote for Obama. The rest won't vote for McCain.

[susankh4]

25. last I knew

28% stated they would vote McCain if Clinton was not the nominee.

[jobycom]

29. Heck, I've probably polled as one of those 28%

But when it comes down to it, I won't vote McCain.

[susankh4]

19. Tennessee and Arkansas and Louisiana

We'll need Bill on the campaign trail to secure ANY of these states once the General Electorate is in play.

And Hill brings him along for the ride as well. Plus, she won Arkansas (landslide) and Tenn (hefty margin.)

[jobycom]

27. That's kind of what I mean

Clinton by herself puts Arkansas and Tennessee in play, and Obama helps strengthen that. Those states are solid Republican, but maybe a Clinton/Obama ticket could rally a win in one or two of them.

Obama might be able to put them in play with Clinton as his running mate, but the top candidate on the ticket is the driving force, and the VP complements the nominee, so it wouldn't give those states enough of a boost for Obama to win them. And it could cost him votes in other ways. He'd get the Clinton negatives on the ticket, and he wouldn't get any advantage he doesn't already have. Except experience, but he's been trashing her experience so much that her top asset would work against him, as people play clips of Obama himself questioning her on it.

Obama has been more negative to Clinton than she has been to him (despite the claims otherwise by Obama supporters). She has only accused him of being inexperienced. He is, no one can realistically deny that. As a VP, people will see him as getting the experience he needs, so that wouldn't undercut her ticket. But he's accused her of all sorts of evils, from lying, to taking corporate and lobbyist money, to voting for the war, to not really having the experience she has. With her on his ticket, he'll spend too much time explaining away his previous comments.

Obama needs to go with an experienced southerner, or some other region he thinks he needs help pulling in. But Clinton needs that warm fuzzy on her ticket, and Obama is nothing if not warm and fuzzy. Heck, in my opinion that's all he is, but that's another topic.

Clinton could get that from someone else, but Obama is perfect for it. For Obama, he could get more positives from another candidate without the negatives and without having to explain away his earlier attacks on Clinton.

And to be honest, I don't think Obama can win the GE no matter who he picks. Clinton can. But that's obviously a highly debated point. :)

[susankh4]

28. OK. Gotcha!

We are on the same page!

[SaveAmerica]

23. I'm very new to politics but the superdelegate thing seems like poker.

You've got to know when to hold them, and all that. If they're holding on to them until the end, it just seems like a huge gamble. It adds to the appearance of having very little Superdelegate support.

Where did you read/hear about Hillary asking her SDs to not announce their support?

[kevinmc]

I think if she had them she would use/used them .....her Mo Train has left the station.. n/t

[dkf]

6. I really doubt it. She's bleeding SDs, not gaining them.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. They already did.

She rolled out a 100+ delegates at the beginning of the race.

She rolled out so many that just now, 80% of the way through the race, is Obama catching up. That massive SD rollout has been a thumb on the scale of this election the whole time, making it appear closer than it really is.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

8. Clinton's issue right now is fundraising

Announcing new superdelegate endorsements would help her in that area. Holding off on announcing them would just postpone any potential bump in fundraising.

Any cards Hillary had up her sleeve have been played by this point. It's all downhill from here.

[endarkenment]

10. Yes she has a brazillion in her back pocket.

Just when Obama is marching to the podium from the smoke filled entry ramp, wearing his Somali terra costume accompanied by Rev. Wright and the zombie corpse of Tupac rapping to "God Damn America" and the thunderous applause of the packed arena hip-hopping and mosh pitting in a multi-cultural extravaganza that clearly disses the boomer generation's last great chance - Clinton will pull her brazillion super duper delegates out of her back pocket, slam them on the stage, and shut down the entire celebration!

It is going to be great.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. LOL

:rofl:

[Adelante]

12. She may win over new ones, but she revealed her piles in the beginning

The ones she already has were mostly pocketed before she announced, just as early fundraisers were encouraged to max out on both primary and GE funds very early. It was all to show she had the money and Dem power behind her, in bulk, as the "incumbent" in the race. She may have a couple of stashed here and there to bring out in locations, but any big number would be moving to her only if she performs very, very well in coming weeks.

[Lucky 13]

15. IF she is holding back revealing her endorsements, that's a dangerous game for her...

The longer she waits to reveal any secret Superdelegates that are in her camp, the longer they have to reconsider and jump ship.

If I were in her shoes, I'd reveal them all as I get them and be sure to have them issue a public statement. That way, if they ever do reconsider, they'd have to go back on their own statements, legitimizing Billary's claims of traitorism.

But then again, her campaign strategies have resulted in the trainwreck that is before us now, so who knows if they will do the strategically smart thing or not.

[babylonsister]

17. If she had them, she'd show them by now imo. Her SDs are bailing;

I heard Corzine voiced the possibility of him switching to Obama if this current trend continues (heard on m$m).

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/clinton_touts_electable_party.html

Some of the other superdelegates from New Jersey who have said they will support Clinton now suggest they could end up supporting Sen. Barack Obama. They suggested they might be willing to change Monday at an event in which New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg announced his intention to run for another term in the U.S. Senate.

Among those super-delegates: Rep. Donald Payne, Rep. Steve Rothman and Rep. Rush Holt. Payne supports Clinton, Rothman supports Obama, and Holt is uncommitted.

[NightWatcher]

20. Is that why Bill is crying and screaming? No, I think this thing is slipping away from him, (them)

[Erin Elizabeth]

21. My guess is no.

If she had 'em, she'd flaunt 'em. Fo sho.

[kmsarvis]

22. INTERESTING......

BUT I DONT THINK IT WOULD BE IN HER BEST INTEREST TO HOLD A PILE OF THEM UNTIL THE END.THAT WOULD MAKE IT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SUPERDELEGATES HANDED HER THE NOMINATION.

[JPZenger]

26. Almost all of Hillary's endorsements came last year

Hillary racked up almost all of her endorsements last year when everyone was told that she was the inevitable candidate. The superdelegate endorsements of Hillary have been very few and far between this year. If she had the cards, she'd play em.

What will hit the press RIGHT before the PA vote will be:

a) her 2007 tax returns, and/or the fact that she still has not released tax returns from 2001 to 2006 which were Bill's big years of bringing home briefcases full of cash from foreign interests, and

b) how little she has raised for the primary election during March and how high her debts have become. She is delaying the release of that information until it is absolutely required to be released - right before the vote.

[cottonseed]

30. With the way her campaign has been going.

My guess would be that she can't put anything like this together. It would be great for her, but just watching her campaign, nothing planned seems to have been going right.